温馨提示：本站仅提供公开网络链接索引服务，不存储、不篡改任何第三方内容，所有内容版权归原作者所有
AI智能索引来源：http://www.bee.com/zh/58051.html
点击访问原文链接

Market Analysis: Bitcoin’s October Quest for a New High | Bee Network

进入原网站 导航首页
Market Analysis: Bitcoin’s October Quest for a New High | Bee Network Login 熱門新聞 Meme Launchpad AI 代理商 DeSci 熱門鏈瀏覽器 新人必讀 衝百倍幣 蜜蜂遊戲 必備網站 必備APP 必關大神 DePIN 新人必備 教我避坑 基本工具 深度網站 交易所 NFT 工具 你好， 登出 Web3宇宙 遊戲 DApp 蜂巢 增長平台 生態 搜尋 英語 Coins儲值 登入 下載 Web3大學 遊戲 DApp 蜂巢 生態 家•分析•Market Analysis: Bitcoin’s October Quest for a New High Market Analysis: Bitcoin’s October Quest for a New High分析5 個月前更新懷亞特 140,220 From a macro perspective, expectations of easing are providing solid support for risky assets. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of an interest rate cut in October and December is currently as high as 94.1% and 84%, respectively. The market generally believes that the Federal Reserve has entered the “pre-communication phase” before a policy turning point, with fiscal and liquidity easing becoming the main themes. With the weakening US labor market, easing debt ceiling pressure, and continued monetary easing by the Treasury, real US dollar interest rates are showing signs of decline, and funds are accelerating their outflow from the money market and flowing back into stocks and 加密貨幣 assets. This round of price increases is both an early response to expectations of rate cuts and the resumption of liquidity, and a typical “capital-driven bull market.”

Next, BlockBeats has compiled traders’ views on the upcoming market conditions to provide some direction for your trading this week.

@CryptoHayes
In his latest article, “Long Live the King,” Arthur Hayes systematically expounds on the evolutionary logic of Bitcoin’s price cycles, arguing that “the four-year halving cycle is dead, and the liquidity cycle is here to stay.” He points out that Bitcoin’s three historical bull-bear cycles were ultimately driven by the expansion and contraction of US dollar and RMB liquidity, rather than changes in block rewards. From 2009 to 2013, the Federal Reserve’s initial quantitative easing (QE) and China’s credit stimulus jointly fueled Bitcoin’s birth and initial bull market. From 2013 to 2017, China’s credit surge fueled the ICO boom, which ultimately burst when monetary tightening brought the bubble to a halt. From 2017 to 2021, the “flooding” policies of the Trump and Biden eras created the largest liquidity expansion in history, driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

As we head into 2025, Hayes believes the world is returning to an easing narrative. The US Treasury is releasing trillions of dollars in liquidity through the issuance of short-term Treasury bills, forcing the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts amidst soaring inflation. China, facing a real estate recession and deflationary pressures, is once again easing credit and stimulating domestic demand. With both economies experiencing monetary easing, capital is bound to flow back into risky asset markets.

@Jackyi_ld
Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua posted a message stating that a major bargain hunting opportunity is coming, urging patience and blocking out the noise. Sell when the market is buzzing and buy when the market is quiet. Seize the opportunity and go long. The three most cyclical assets in the cryptocurrency market: public chains (BTC, ETH, etc.), exchanges (BNB, Aster, etc.), and stablecoins (WLFI, Tether shares, etc.).

@Phyrex_Ni
This round of risk market gains is essentially a product of the market “preempting” expectations of Federal Reserve easing. The US government shutdown and Trump’s layoffs have investors betting on an October rate cut, leading to gains in US stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold. However, this “happy ending” rally is largely driven by sentiment. In reality, the Federal Reserve remains in a high-interest rate cycle, with rising inflation stickiness, slowing wage growth, and declining real purchasing power. Weak labor market data, however, exposes structural risks in the economy.

At the macro level, the US fiscal 德菲cit continues to widen, US Treasury yields and the US dollar index have both risen, and gold prices have also strengthened. This reflects that global capital is seeking the safe haven of the US dollar while also raising doubts about the US’s long-term solvency. In the short term, the data vacuum caused by the shutdown will continue to maintain optimism, and funds may continue to flow into risky assets, but this is just a “false boom without data.” If inflation data returns to high levels, the Federal Reserve will be forced to tighten policy, and the market may face a sharp turn.

@Corsica 267
The root cause of the current US economic problems lies in the structural contradiction between weak demand and high debt. Long-term low interest rates and rising productivity have weakened investment returns and widened the wealth gap, while an aging population and slowing consumption have further suppressed growth momentum. Faced with this “high debt + low growth” dilemma, Treasury Secretary Bensont is employing a “financial repression” strategy to resolve the debt burden: capping interest rates, tolerating inflation, and attracting passive buyers to keep nominal economic growth above financing costs, thereby “wearing away” the debt burden.

This has led to a market mismatch where nominal rate cuts lag behind real easing. Even if the Fed cuts rates, if inflation expectations fall faster, real interest rates will rise, creating a passive tightening. The current division of labor between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury is: the former stabilizes livelihoods, while the latter stabilizes government bonds. While fiscal stimulus supports asset prices, the Fed faces a difficult trade-off between employment and inflation.

At the asset level, tech stocks and gold are rising in tandem. Tech stocks rely on declining discount rates and the illusion of long-term growth, forming a “productive bubble,” while gold benefits from a “double premium” of lower real interest rates and rising institutional uncertainty. The simultaneous rise of these two stocks essentially reflects a consensus on pricing in an era of financial repression: expected real returns on capital are declining, while risk aversion and growth have become the only certainties.

Future trends depend on:

If inflation is controlled and fiscal repression continues, risky assets and gold will remain supported;

If inflation re-emerges and real interest rates rise, the bubble will be forced to deflate.

In short, this is an era where growth is exchanged for financial repression and assets are supported by institutional premiums – prosperity and risk coexist, and the high point of valuation is also the low point of institutional trust.

@JPMorgan In an October 1 report, JPMorgan analysts pointed out that Bitcoin is expected to continue to rise. The reason is that the so-called “currency devaluation trade” has revived – retail and institutional investors tend to hedge their risks by allocating gold and Bitcoin amid concerns about geopolitical uncertainty, high global debt levels and the weakening dominance of the US dollar.

More broadly, a number of recent developments in the crypto industry indicate that it is steadily integrating into the mainstream financial system, including the launch of multiple new crypto ETFs and the rise of “crypto treasury stocks”, indicating that the capital market’s acceptance and participation in this field continues to increase.

本文源自網路： Market Analysis: Bitcoin’s October Quest for a New HighRecommended Articles

Related: RWA Weekly Report | US Senate Democrats Announce Crypto 市場 Regulatory Framework; Tether to Launch USAT, a US-Based S

Author | Ethan ( @ethanzhang_web3) RWA Sector Market Performance As of September 16, 2025, the total value of the RWA on-chain reached $30.14 billion, an increase of $2.34 billion, or 8.42%, from $27.80 billion on September 9. This marks the first time that the total market capitalization of RWA has exceeded $30 billion , continuing the market’s previous growth trend and entering a new round of accelerated expansion. User engagement also increased, with the total number of asset holders increasing from 382,324 to 392,697, a weekly increase of 10,373, or 2.71%. This marks the sixth consecutive week of positive user growth. The number of asset issuers decreased from 274 to 211, a decrease of 63, or 22.99%. This data anomaly may be related to platform liquidation and adjustments to statistical…

#分析#比特幣# 加密# 脫機#交換#市場© 版權聲明文章版权归作者所有，未经允许请勿转载。 上一篇 A quick look at the BASE token economics proposal 下一篇 Privacy Coins Strikes Back: Naval’s Call Triggers a Surge in ZEC’s Price, Which Projects Will Take Over? 相關文章 Aethir joins hands with EigenLayer to innovate decentralized cloud computing services again 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 37,599 Multiple ETFs face final rulings in October. Could this trigger a new round of altcoins? 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 19,235 1 The Evolution of the Prediction Market in 2025: From Polymarket’s Rage to Kalshi’s Compliance and Social Embedded Explos 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 24,358 2 Why are so many people “watching” stablecoins, but it’s so difficult to enter the market?Recommended Articles 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 24,171 2 When the NFT bubble bursts, who will still be able to tell the “IP story” well? 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 16,668 Injecting 50,000 ETH, the Ethereum Foundation is substantially involved in DeFi for the first time 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 36,494 1 暫無評論 您必須先登入才能發表評論！ 立即登入 暫無評論... 最新的文章 Did Jane Street “Manipulate” BTC? Decoding the AP System, Understanding the Power Struggle Behind ETF Creation and Redemption Pricing 11 小時前 436 Stop Comparing Bitcoin to Gold—It’s Now a High-Volatility Software Stock 11 小時前 556 Matrixport Research: $25 Billion Gamma Unwinding Imminent, Liquidity Yet to Return Behind the Rebound 11 小時前 532 ERC-5564: Ethereum’s Stealth Era Has Arrived, Receiving Addresses No Longer ‘Exposed’ 11 小時前 473 Hong Kong Regulatory Green Light: Asseto Enables DL Holdings to Achieve Compliance for Two RWA Business Implementations 11 小時前 501 熱門網站TempoLighterGAIB滑翔機普朗克雷爾斯BCPokerVooi Bee.com 全球最大的 Web3 入口網站 合作夥伴 CoinCarp Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko 幣活 盔甲 下載Bee Network APP開啟您的Web3之旅 白皮書 角色 常問問題 © 2021-2026.版權所有。. 隱私政策 | 服務條款 下載蜜蜂網路APP 並開始 web3 之旅 全球最大的Web3入口網站 合作夥伴 CoinCarp Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive Armors 白皮書 角色 常問問題 © 2021-2026.版權所有。. 隱私政策 | 服務條款 搜尋 搜尋站內鏈上社群媒體新聞 熱門推薦： 擼毛打金 數據分析 必關大神 教我避坑 繁體中文 English 简体中文 日本語 Tiếng Việt العربية 한국어 Bahasa Indonesia हिन्दी اردو Русский 繁體中文

智能索引记录