The Evolution of the Prediction Market in 2025: From Polymarket’s Rage to Kalshi’s Compliance and Social Embedded Explos | Bee Network

The Evolution of the Prediction Market in 2025: From Polymarket’s Rage to Kalshi’s Compliance and Social Embedded Explos | Bee Network Login 熱門新聞 Meme Launchpad AI 代理商 DeSci 熱門鏈瀏覽器 新人必讀 衝百倍幣 蜜蜂遊戲 必備網站 必備APP 必關大神 DePIN 新人必備 教我避坑 基本工具 深度網站 交易所 NFT 工具 你好， 登出 Web3宇宙 遊戲 DApp 蜂巢 增長平台 生態 搜尋 英語 Coins儲值 登入 下載 Web3大學 遊戲 DApp 蜂巢 生態 家•分析•The Evolution of the Prediction Market in 2025: From Polymarket’s Rage to Kalshi’s Compliance and Social Embedded Explos The Evolution of the Prediction Market in 2025: From Polymarket’s Rage to Kalshi’s Compliance and Social Embedded Explos分析6 年前更新懷亞特 24,171 28 Author | Ethan ( @ethanzhang_web 3 )

If the popularity of the prediction market in 2024 was mainly driven by the US election and Polymarket airdrop expectations, then by 2025, the focus of the track has quietly shifted.

This year’s story is no longer a carnival driven by a single event, but more like a deep reconstruction: the form, entry and ecological relationship of the prediction market are being re德菲內德。

On the one hand, compliance and mainstream adoption are accelerating. Kalshi, through CFTC oversight, secured compliance licenses in 50 states and, through its partnership with Robinhood, has introduced prediction trading to a wider user base. On the other hand, social nativeization is emerging. Projects like Myriad and Flipr are embedding prediction markets directly into social media and news feeds, making betting a natural part of content interaction.

Meanwhile, the battle for on-chain efficiency intensifies. Limitless is reshaping the liquidity experience on the Base chain through the CLOB model, while Drift launched BET on Solana, connecting prediction markets with high-leverage derivatives trading. The role of prediction markets is evolving from a “speculative tool” to an “information price field.”

In this article, Odaily Planet Daily will focus on five rapidly emerging prediction market projects, analyzing their gameplay, positioning, and potential opportunities.

Kalshi: A Sample of the US Compliance Prediction 市場

While on-chain products remain a gray area, Kalshi has chosen an almost polar opposite approach. As the first prediction market platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi has legalized “event contracts”: users can directly trade yes/no outcomes, whether it’s a political election, a sporting event, or a tech company IPO.

Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi aims to build a compliant bridge between traditional finance and real-world events. In October 2024, a federal court ruled in favor of launching the first regulated election market in the United States, with a single market transaction volume of up to $100 million, further solidifying Kalshi’s regulatory position.

Regarding product expansion, Kalshi partnered with Robinhood in August of this year to integrate NFL and college football prediction markets into the Robinhood app, bringing predictive trading to mainstream investors for the first time. Kalshi is also exploring AI-assisted forecasting, collaborating with xAI to introduce the Grok system, which generates probabilistic predictions based on data analysis and news updates.

Kalshi boasts backing from institutions like Sequoia, Charles Schwab, and Y Combinator. While some states still have restrictions on sports prediction contracts, Kalshi has overcome some regulatory barriers through litigation, demonstrating its commitment to promoting compliance in the prediction market.

How to participate in Kalshi (Robinhood portal):

Open the Robinhood app; Search for “NFL Predictions” or “College Football”; Select the event you want to predict, such as “whether a certain team will win”; Enter the bet amount and confirm to complete the order. MyriadMarkets: An attempt to make embedded predictions socially native

Myriad Markets is a decentralized prediction market protocol designed to provide a platform for users of the open web to make predictions about real-world events, news, and articles. While the project began construction in March 2024, the team behind it has been deeply involved in the prediction market space since 2021. Through integrations with media platforms like Decrypt and Rug Radio, they aim to seamlessly embed prediction functionality into the content users consume daily.

Unlike Kalshi’s compliance-focused approach, Myriad Markets takes a decentralized and embedded approach. Incubated by the DASTAN team (Decrypt Media’s parent company), the project’s core concept is to embed prediction markets directly into information flows, allowing predictions to occur almost simultaneously with content consumption.

The official Chrome extension allows users to place bets directly next to relevant paragraphs or headlines while reading news, browsing social media, or visiting partner websites. For example, beneath a report about the US election, the extension automatically generates a prediction market on whether Trump will win the next debate, with prices updated in real time based on market trends.

Myriad’s core functionality extends beyond politics and sports, encompassing diverse topics such as 加密貨幣currency trends (such as Bitcoin and Ethereum), the global economy, cultural events, entertainment, and esports. Users can not only passively browse but also participate in discussions through predictions, influence public opinion, and earn rewards in the process.

Technically, Myriad combines AbstractChain and Linea, supports direct betting through the MetaMask wallet, and accumulates XP incentives within the cooperative ecosystem.

Myriad supports two prediction modes:

Points Markets : bet using points, which can be redeemed for tokens; USDC Market : Use real funds to bet, and the price is dynamically adjusted by AMM. How to experience MyriadMarkets:

Install the Myriad official Chrome extension ; Log in or connect to your Web 3 wallet; When browsing content on a news page or X, click on the automatically generated prediction entry; Select the Yes/No option, enter the points or USDC amount, and place the order; Actively complete “Challenge Tasks” to earn more points, which can be exchanged for MYRIAD tokens in the future. Drift-BET: Derivatives expansion from perpetual contracts to prediction markets

Drift Protocol is one of the oldest and largest decentralized derivatives platforms within the Solana ecosystem. Since its launch in 2021, the project has captured the market with its highly capital-efficient perpetual contracts. In 2022, the V2 upgrade introduced Just-In-Time (JIT) liquidity and passive liquidity pools, significantly improving liquidity and trading efficiency. Drift’s unique value lies in its cross-collateral model, allowing users to flexibly trade across multiple markets from a single margin account. Some contracts support up to 50x leverage, while maintaining low slippage and fees.

In August of this year, Drift launched a new prediction market feature, BET (Bullish on Everything on Drift), which attempts to deeply integrate prediction markets with derivatives infrastructure. Unlike most independent prediction platforms, BET is not a standalone application, but is directly integrated into Drift’s derivatives trading interface. Users’ margin accounts on Drift can not only be used for perpetual contract trading but also directly serve as collateral for prediction markets, enabling capital sharing between derivatives and prediction markets. This model allows a single collateral deposit to cover multiple types of transactions, dynamically balancing returns and risks within the same pool of funds, significantly improving capital utilization efficiency.

BET utilizes an AMM pricing model, initially focusing on high-profile topics such as the US election (“Will Trump win the next debate?” and “Will Harris’s approval rating exceed 45%), cryptocurrency price trends, and macroeconomic data. According to Solana Floor data, BET’s total locked value exceeded $3 million in its first week, demonstrating strong community interest in this new gameplay model.

How to experience Drift BET:

Go to the Drift official website; Connect a Solana wallet (Phantom is recommended); Select an event in the “Prediction Market” section; Use a margin account to place bets directly without the need for additional transfers; Before the event ends, you can sell your positions to lock in profits and losses, or wait for automatic settlement. Limitless: On-chain CLOB prediction market experiment

如果 綜合市場 represents “front-end integration” and Myriad focuses on “native content embedding”, then TryLimitless based on the Base blockchain has chosen a path closer to CEX: implementing a complete CLOB (central limit order book) system on the chain, and reshaping the trading experience of the prediction market through deep matching and high-frequency interaction.

Unlike the common AMM (Automated Market Maker) model, TryLimitless allows users to place, match, and cancel orders just like on a CEX. Prices are determined entirely by the market, and both market and limit orders are supported. For multi-outcome events, the platform introduces Negrisk multi-way contracts, allowing users to simultaneously configure multiple yes/no positions and flexibly close them before the event ends, locking in profits and losses in advance. This interactive logic is more intuitive for high-frequency traders accustomed to CEXs, while maintaining the transparency and verifiability of on-chain operations.

Officially launched in 2025, the project leverages Python Network’s decentralized oracles to achieve instant settlement, mitigating the risk of market manipulation. It also leverages Basechain’s high-performance architecture to achieve a balance between low latency and high depth. As a result, TryLimitless quickly attracted the attention of high-frequency traders and strategic arbitrageurs.

TryLimitless also offers hourly and daily markets covering a variety of topics, including Bitcoin and Ethereum price fluctuations, stock trends, and macroeconomic events. All trades are settled in USDC. Users can participate through their MetaMask wallet and earn Limitless Points by placing limit orders, providing liquidity, and inviting new users.

To accelerate early user growth, TryLimitless launched Points Program Season 1 in July 2025, running until September 22nd. The Points Program, strongly linked to future token equity, has become a key user attraction mechanism. The team also released a developer API, supporting asynchronous, type-safe interfaces to facilitate the building of customized tools and trading applications. Furthermore, the team plans to hold a 代幣 Generation Event (TGE) in Q3 2025 and collaborate with projects like Wallchain on community incentives.

How to experience Limitless:

訪問 the Limitless website ; Connect your wallet and switch to the Base network; Prepare a small amount of ETH (to pay for gas) + USDC (to participate in prediction); Select an event in the prediction market and place a market order or a limit order; Use limit orders more often to earn more points. Fliprbot: Bringing predictive access to social conversations

In the past, participating in prediction markets meant going to a separate website, browsing a list of events, choosing a position, and placing a bet. Flipr attempts to compress all of this into the most natural scenario: social conversation .

Flipr, launched in July 2025, is built on Polymarket’s infrastructure and offers a new “conversational prediction” experience through its trading bot, Fliprbot, running on X. Users simply tag @fliprbot on X or send a private message with natural language instructions, such as ” Bet $50 on BTC breaking $130K by 31 Dec 2025,” to place their bets directly, eliminating the need to navigate to a separate website or complex DApp.

Fliprbot returns prediction market prices, odds, and position options in real time, allowing users to place orders with a single click. While browsing tweets, if users encounter topics related to the election or crypto prices, they can simply forward the tweet to Fliprbot. The system will automatically identify the keywords and generate corresponding prediction market links, seamlessly transitioning from information to transactions.

In addition, Fliprbot also supports group chat and community embedding: group administrators can instantly create prediction markets in conversations, allowing users to place bets while chatting. The prediction function is naturally integrated into social interactions, lowering the threshold for participation.

Flipr’s product design offers a gas-free initial experience through Privy Smart Accounts and introduces the first leveraged trading feature in prediction markets, further lowering the barrier to entry and attracting a wider user base. Its core functionality covers a wide range of events, including cryptocurrency prices, sports events, and the macro economy. Transactions are settled in USDC, and the platform is deeply integrated with platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

To accelerate user growth, Flipr launched the “Mindshare Mining” program on July 7, 2025, establishing a 10 million $FLIPR token reward pool. Rewards will be distributed based on user trading volume, posting frequency, and engagement, incentivizing users to promote the platform through social media and actively trade. Currently in public beta, the platform has implemented features such as stop-loss and take-profit, and volatility protection, and is continuously optimizing its interface and leverage model.

How to experience Fliprbot:

Search for X and send a private message to @fliprbot ; Enter the prediction keyword, such as “BTC > 70 K”; Click on the returned market link to place bets directly in the chat; Or tag Fliprbot in a tweet, and the robot will automatically identify the topic and generate a corresponding prediction market. 結論
From Kalshi’s compliance penetration, to Myriad and Flipr’s native social embedding, to Limitless and Drift BET’s exploration of on-chain efficiency, the prediction market has seen multi-threaded innovation in entry, form and interaction.

However, despite these projects continuously lowering user barriers and broadening their application scenarios, the true growth potential of prediction markets remains untapped. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin recently pointed out that most current prediction markets do not pay interest, making them unattractive for hedging purposes . Participating in a prediction market means forgoing a guaranteed 4% annualized return on USD. Vitalik believes that once this issue is resolved, prediction markets will see a surge in hedging applications, leading to further growth in trading volume.

In other words, the current prediction market is still largely at the stage of speculation-driven and social distribution ; in the future, when capital efficiency and risk management capabilities are improved simultaneously , the prediction market may truly evolve into an infrastructure for information pricing.

推薦閱讀 More Than Speculation: Product Evolution and Ecological Reconstruction of the Prediction Market in 2025

Prediction Markets—The Next Big Thing?

本文源自網路： The Evolution of the Prediction Market in 2025: From Polymarket’s Rage to Kalshi’s Compliance and Social Embedded ExplosionRecommended Articles

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