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Traditional Gambling Giants Enter Prediction Markets, Aiming to Outmaneuver Wall Street | Bee Network

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Traditional Gambling Giants Enter Prediction Markets, Aiming to Outmaneuver Wall Street | Bee Network Login 热门新闻 备忘录启动板 人工智能代理 德西 TopChainExplorer 给 Newbee 100 倍金币 蜜蜂游戏 重要网站 必备应用程序 加密货币名人 德平 新手必备 陷阱探测器 基本工具 高级网站 交流 NFT 工具 你好、, 签出 Web3 宇宙 游戏 DApp 蜂巢 成长平台 生态 搜索 英语 充值金币 登录 下载 Web3 大学 游戏 DApp 蜂巢 生态 家•分析•Traditional Gambling Giants Enter Prediction Markets, Aiming to Outmaneuver Wall Street Traditional Gambling Giants Enter Prediction Markets, Aiming to Outmaneuver Wall Street分析3周前更新怀亚特 5,650 18 Compiled by | Odaily (@OdailyChina); Translator | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

As prediction markets explode, two distinct groups are circling — one from Wall Street and the other from Morton Street (the headquarters of sportsbook Fanatics). On one side are professional financial trading firms, and on the other are traditional sportsbook operators, both believing they possess the capabilities to become top predators.

Sportsbooks Enter the 市场-Making Arena Three traditional sports betting operators — DraftKings, Fanatics, and FanDuel — have all ventured into prediction markets to counter the threat this emerging sector poses to their core businesses. After a period of cooling investor sentiment, these companies are accelerating their efforts, viewing their deep experience in the gambling industry as a potential competitive advantage.

DraftKings, Fanatics, and FanDuel have all started or intend to offer “odds” on their prediction market apps through affiliated market makers. This is similar to their operations in traditional sports betting, but the key difference is that in prediction markets, they must compete with third parties who can also place orders.

Based on conversations Sportico had with executives from relevant companies and industry analysts, there is no consensus that sportsbooks directly engaging in market-making can achieve higher returns than professional financial trading firms, but the sportsbooks are confident in the profit potential of market-making.

Peter Jackson, CEO of Flutter Entertainment, FanDuel’s parent company, stated during the Q3 earnings call in November: “The core competency required for a market maker is the ability to accurately price complex and interconnected outcomes. This is exactly what our core business does every day.”

Fanatics already has an active affiliated market maker named Morton St. Market Maker LLC — the name comes from the New York City street where its parent company is located, within walking distance of some of its Wall Street rivals. Morton St. Market Maker provides odds for both buying and selling contracts on Crypto.com, the underlying prediction market platform integrated by Fanatics.

Meanwhile, both DraftKings and FanDuel have hinted at the existence of affiliated market-making teams that would trade against their clients, but it remains unclear whether DraftKings or FanDuel have formally established such entities.

To ensure all users can quickly enter and exit positions at near-fair prices, market makers typically need to provide liquidity on both the “YES” and “NO” sides during specific periods, profiting from the small spread between the “buy now” and “sell now” quotes. For example, if a user buys a contract for the New York Mets to win at $0.50, and the market maker previously acquired that contract via a limit order at $0.47, the market maker earns $0.03.

Wall Street’s Wolves Counter-Encircle On the other side of the sportsbooks are professional trading institutions from Wall Street.

Although Wall Street firms like Susquehanna International Group have extensive experience in financial derivatives market-making, some industry insiders interviewed by Sportico noted that Wall Street is indeed less adept than traditional sportsbooks at setting odds for sporting events.

Alfonso Straffon, who has worked in market-making for both Wall Street junk bonds and sports betting, said: “I would caution those Wall Street firms not to underestimate the competition; sports betting is a long-established ecosystem.”

Sporting events present more complex risk management challenges for market makers, especially during live games where any development — such as an injury, weather change, or coaching decision — can drastically alter the true value of a bet. “Parlays” introduce additional risk, where a single mistake can lead to massive losses. This risk is further amplified if the exchange supports leveraged trading.

Advanced data models and the ability to access information ahead of the public — these are the advantages of traditional sportsbooks — are crucial for mitigating risk.

However, this doesn’t guarantee sportsbooks an easy victory in prediction markets. Another sports betting company founder leans towards the view that, with deeper capital and experience adapting to different financial markets, Wall Street will ultimately achieve higher returns.

Wall Street firms like Susquehanna and Jump Trading, which lack long-term sports experience, are racing to hire market makers specialized in sports. Prediction markets like Crypto.com and Polymarket have also posted related recruitment ads for their affiliated trading desks in recent months; Robinhood’s Rothera mentions an active affiliated market maker (sources suggest it might be Susquehanna) in its rulebook; and according to a Bloomberg report this week, Jump Trading is investing in both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Sportico previously reported details about Kalshi Trading (Kalshi’s affiliated market-making entity), which is also striving to compensate for its lack of sports experience — Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara stated on X that Kalshi Trading was not profitable on sports and that sports accounted for “less than 6% of its market-making volume” in November.

Competitive Advantages May Gradually Converge Market-making is not a high-margin business. Multiple companies competing to price the same prediction market naturally compresses profitable spreads. In other words, the more market makers in a prediction market, the less profit can be made per individual bet.

However, while prediction markets with affiliated market makers might wish to limit their number, operational reality is far more complex. A lack of institutional capital support could lead to insufficient overall market liquidity, directly impacting user experience unless the affiliated market maker injects massive capital (and assumes the corresponding risk) to fill the gap.

This means sportsbooks will inevitably compete on the same field as financial institutions, vying for order flow from retail bettors.

最终， as Wall Street institutions hire talent with professional sports backgrounds (and vice versa), the competitive advantages of both sides may gradually converge. But at least for now, the sportsbooks entering prediction markets are brimming with confidence in their chances of success.

本文来源于互联网： Traditional Gambling Giants Enter Prediction Markets, Aiming to Outmaneuver Wall Street

Related: The day before the token launch, the community asked the founder of Lighter ten questions.

Compiled by Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina ); Translated by Azuma ( @azuma_eth ) Editor’s Note: Based on market rumors and odds on Polymarket, it seems no secret that Lighter will launch its TGE token on December 29th. At this crucial moment before the token launch, Lighter founder and CEO Vladimir Novakovski participated in an interview with jez (@izebel_eth) on his Twitter Space. During the conversation, Vladimir answered questions from the community regarding the token release date, points allocation, witch screening, product updates, future direction, and community communication. The following is a selection of Vladimir’s interview, compiled and translated by Odaily. Opening Host (jec): This is my first time hosting Twitter Spaces. So please bear with any unexpected situations that may arise. Today I’m delighted to have Vladimir Novakovski, the…

 

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