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Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Could a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Pivot? | Bee Network

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Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Could a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Pivot? | Bee Network Login 热门新闻 备忘录启动板 人工智能代理 德西 TopChainExplorer 给 Newbee 100 倍金币 蜜蜂游戏 重要网站 必备应用程序 加密货币名人 德平 新手必备 陷阱探测器 基本工具 高级网站 交流 NFT 工具 你好、, 签出 Web3 宇宙 游戏 DApp 蜂巢 成长平台 生态 搜索 英语 充值金币 登录 下载 Web3 大学 游戏 DApp 蜂巢 生态 家•分析•正文 Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Could a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Pivot?分析4 周前更新怀亚特 8,259 60 Price Structure Under Pressure: Selling Pressure Not from Institutions, but Dispersed Speculative Losses Over the past six months, Bitcoin has failed to strengthen in sync with gold and other risk assets. Since June 2025, sustained selling by early holders was once considered the primary suppressing factor. However, starting in October, as gold accelerated its upward move and Bitcoin entered a correction, it became clear that a single factor could no longer explain the current divergence.

The flash crash on October 10, 2025, served as a significant watershed. This event led to a notable widening of cross-asset relative pricing and inter-exchange price spreads, squeezing the risk budgets of market makers and market-neutral capital, thereby weakening short-term liquidity. It is noteworthy that there is little indication of concentrated losses among major trading institutions. Instead, realized losses are occurring more diffusely among a broader range of market participants. Data shows that traders on the Hyperliquid platform contributed to over 50% of the realized losses, indicating that this round of shock was primarily borne by speculative retail investors rather than being institution-led.

Capital and Narrative Shifts: Weakening Dollar is a Supporting Variable, but Risk Appetite is Still Cooling On a macro level, the reflation narrative persists, and the U.S. dollar remains within a relatively weak trading range. Historically, Bitcoin has often found more robust medium-term support during periods of sustained dollar weakness. Recently, Trump has neither sent a clear signal of support for a weaker dollar nor made strong statements against it. The market tends to interpret this as an increased tolerance for a weaker dollar, suggesting that the reflation trade may still find support in the short term.

However, from a capital flow perspective, there are signs of a marginal shift towards caution in risk appetite. The one-year rolling growth rates of the stablecoin supplies for both USDT and USDC have noticeably slowed after peaking around October 2025, with the decline in USDC being more pronounced. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s overall search interest has remained at low levels since its peak in 2021, reflecting more of a cooling in retail attention rather than a resurgence of panic. Although discussions related to quantum computing have subsided, they continue to somewhat suppress Bitcoin’s “safe-haven asset” narrative, making it difficult for its safety premium to recover.

Overall, while the U.S. dollar’s 14-year uptrend has been broken—a change historically favorable for Bitcoin establishing medium-to-long-term support—the current price structure remains weak, with rallies often being sold into. The asset continues to trade within a consolidation range under a bear market framework. Our view on Bitcoin has shifted marginally towards a more constructive stance compared to before. However, before adopting a more 定义nitive bullish stance, we still need to wait for further improvement and confirmation from both technical and capital flow signals.

Some of the views above are from Matrix on Target. 联系我们 to obtain the full Matrix on Target report.

免责声明： 市场s are risky; invest with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can carry significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.

本文来源于互联网： Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Could a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Pivot?

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