温馨提示：本站仅提供公开网络链接索引服务，不存储、不篡改任何第三方内容，所有内容版权归原作者所有
AI智能索引来源：http://www.bee.com/zh_cn/61395.html
点击访问原文链接

Bitcoin Data Analysis: Correction or New Bear Market? | Bee Network

进入原网站 导航首页
Bitcoin Data Analysis: Correction or New Bear Market? | Bee Network Login 热门新闻 备忘录启动板 人工智能代理 德西 TopChainExplorer 给 Newbee 100 倍金币 蜜蜂游戏 重要网站 必备应用程序 加密货币名人 德平 新手必备 陷阱探测器 基本工具 高级网站 交流 NFT 工具 你好、, 签出 Web3 宇宙 游戏 DApp 蜂巢 成长平台 生态 搜索 英语 充值金币 登录 下载 Web3 大学 游戏 DApp 蜂巢 生态 家•分析•Bitcoin Data Analysis: Correction or New Bear Market? Bitcoin Data Analysis: Correction or New Bear Market?分析3 个月前更新怀亚特 15,8652 15 Original translation: Blockchain in Plain Language

Bitcoin has begun to show clear signs of weakness, with its recent drop below six figures ($100,000) prompting a reassessment of its near-term outlook. With some key technical and on-chain levels breached, I’ve revised my base case scenario to a below-50% chance of a retest of new all-time highs in the coming weeks. This could change rapidly if key levels are restored, but until then, the market appears to have shifted from a trending uptrend into a correction phase.

“Buying the Dip” Bitcoin has seen a significant pullback, but buying on dips isn’t always the best approach unless it’s within a confirmed bullish trend. In a bearish environment, even nascent pullbacks can cause prices to fall sharply. Short-term and impending retracements are typical in downtrends, so reacting to data rather than preemptively predicting the bottom becomes even more important.

Our chart analysis of the Short-Term Holder Realized Price from the previous cycle reveals this pattern of multiple pullbacks. It’s also clear that this indicator acted as key resistance during this phase, and a sustained rebound only occurred after BTC recovered to the Short-Term Holder Realized Price level.

Figure 1: As observed in the previous cycle, there were multiple pullbacks before reaching the market bottom.

However, there’s a caveat: if prices effectively reclaim key levels, the entire picture will change. That’s why it might make sense to make small allocations during this pullback, while postponing further purchases until we see macro-level consistency at the levels, allowing for a more defensive approach.

Key observation level The MVRV Z-Score and Bitcoin Realization Price (Bitcoin Realization Price) provide a clearer picture of where the broader market cost base lies. Currently, the network’s realization cost base is clustered in the $50,000 range, but this figure is rising daily.

Figure 2: Historically, bear market bottoms typically occur when the price of BTC is below its actual price.

A similar situation exists with the 200-week moving average, as it is currently also in the $50,000 range. Historically, points where this indicator intersects with price have provided strong long-term accumulation opportunities.

Figure 3: The 200WMA also suggests that $55k is an accumulation point, even though it is rising every day.

These are slowly rising every day, meaning a potential bottom could form at $60,000, $65,000, or higher, depending on how long Bitcoin’s continued trend lasts. Importantly, value tends to level off when spot prices trade near the network’s historical average cost, and key buy support levels provide consistency.

Supply and demand signals The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple remains an important indicator for identifying stress points for long-term and experienced holders. A very low interpretation suggests that a large amount of stagnant currency has not been moved, which often coincides with market bottoms. However, short-term surges may indicate capitulation pressure, which often accompanies or precedes major market turning points.

Figure 4: Current VDD multiplier readings indicate that larger and more experienced participants in the market remain very active.

Currently, this indicator continues to rise as prices fall, suggesting that many holders are exhausted from selling. This is not characteristic of a cycle bottom, which is typically characterized by forced selling that is extreme and compressed in the short term. At this stage, the market appears to be gradually releasing rather than becoming exhausted. Meanwhile, the long-term holder supply should ideally stabilize and begin to increase again before any significant bottom is confirmed, as bottoms form when the most patient participants begin to hold (accumulate) rather than exit.

Funding rates Periods of extreme fear are often clearly manifested by large short positions, negative funding rates as indicated by Bitcoin Funding Rates, and huge realized losses. These conditions suggest that weak hands have entered the decline, and strong hands are absorbing the supply.

Figure 5: A significant market low is likely to occur when Bitcoin funding rates are severely negative, which is usually followed by a price rebound.

The market has not yet exhibited the hallmark panic selling and shorting typically associated with significant cyclical lows. Without pressure from the derivatives market and a rush to realize losses, it’s difficult to say the market has fully cleared.

The level that must be recovered Assuming the bearish scenario is wrong, this is certainly the preferred outcome. In this case, Bitcoin would need to begin recovering key structural levels, including the psychological level of $100,000, the short-term holders’ realization price, and the 350-day moving average, as depicted on the Golden Ratio Multiplier chart.

Figure 6: BTC must achieve a sustained recovery above the 350-day moving average to resume its bullish trend.

Sustained closing prices at these levels, coupled with the strength of global risk assets, would indicate a trend reversal. Until then, however, the data is currently leaning towards a conservative approach.

最后 The outlook has become more defensive since breaking below several key levels. Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals are not structurally flawed, but the short-term market structure is not indicative of a healthy bullish trend.

Current recommended strategies include not buying on dips, waiting for consensus to emerge before large-scale position building, respecting macroeconomic conditions and trends, and only becoming aggressive when strength is proven. Most investors can never pinpoint the top or bottom of a target; targets are located near high-probability areas with sufficient confirmation of the market’s excess reserves over several months.

本文来源于互联网： Bitcoin Data Analysis: Correction or New Bear Market?Recommended Articles

Related: 24-Hour Hot Coins and News | Powell hints at support for another rate cut later this month; 1. Popular CEX currencies Top 10 CEX trading volume and 24-hour price changes: BTC: -0.78% ETH: -1.22% BNB: -5.20% SOL: -0.82% DOGE: +0.83% QKC: +0.84% ASTER: +4.52% XPL: +3.10% PSG: +3.77% SNX: +1.09% TFUEL: -2.47% 24-hour price increase list (data source: OKX): ZBCN: +18.52% SNX: +13.48% PRCL: +9.18% XPL: +6.45% SKL: +6.12% COMP: +5.86% VINE: +4.94% MORPHO: +4.92% IMX: +4.68% SCR: +3.97% J: +3.96% 24-hour cryptocurrency stock price increase list (data source: MyStonks ): Canaan Inc. American Depositary Shares(CAN.M): 23.03% Bakkt Holdings, Inc. (BKKT.M): 18.85% Mawson Infrastructure Group Inc. Common Stock (MIGI.M): 19.13% Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC.M): 14.72% TeraWulf Inc. Common Stock (WULF.M): 11.79% CLEANSPARK INC (CLSK.M): 11.78% Mercurity Fintech Holding Inc. Ordinary Shares(MFH.M): 10.77% MARA Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (MARA.M): 10.48% IREN Limited Ordinary Shares (IREN.M): 10.38% Bitfarms Ltd.…

#分析# 比特币# 市场© 版权声明文章版权归作者所有，未经允许请勿转载。 上一篇 BTC is poised for further decline! Six major macroeconomic obstacles loom large. 下一篇 With Powell's allies setting the tone, a Fed rate cut in December is now highly probable. 相关文章 $1.5 billion black eats black: FTX and Three Arrows Capital devour each other 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 30,232 1 Can XPL, which was snapped up by wealthy investors during its public sale, break the $1 mark when it goes online?Recomme 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 23,138 1 The birth of “physical BTC”: a 13-year investment miracle of 20,000 times return 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 27,511 4 安全危机后的坚定信念：为什么瑞士仍有长期增长的潜力？ 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 28,047 1 After MSTR, a leading Bitcoin concept stock, first indicated it might “sell its cryptocurrency,” its stock price plummeted by as much as 12% during trading. 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 16,065 8 24-Hour Hot Coins and News | Monad: Airdrop Claim Portal Opens Today at 9:00 PM; 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 21,492 2 条评论 您必须登录后才能发表评论！ 立即登录 #BeelieverINL5WWK 客人 我是一个骗局的受害者，我损失了很多钱，高达 $170,000 我想对 Innovations recovery Analyst 表示感谢，感谢他们为我从一家外汇经纪商那里追回资金提供了卓越的帮助。他们在处理复杂过程中表现出的专业知识和专业精神确实值得称赞。通过他们的指导和不懈努力，我成功追回了 $170,000 美元的资金，为我提供了急需的救济。我强烈推荐他们：INNOVATIONSANALYST@ GMAIL.COM 或 WhatsApp + 1 424 285 0682 向所有面临类似挑战的人推荐他们，因为他们帮助客户的奉献精神和承诺确实令人印象深刻。感谢他们为解决此事提供的宝贵支持。.

3 个月前 Harrison 客人 It seems it’s an unhealthy bearish with dangerous indicators.

3 个月前 最新文章 How to Systematically Track High-Win-Rate Addresses on Polymarket? 5小时前 257 CoinEx Research: Geopolitical Tensions Drive Up Oil and Gold Prices, Crypto Market Absorbs Liquidity Shock 5小时前 390 Low-Threshold Investment in SpaceX and ByteDance: MSX Partners with Republic to Usher in a New Era of Global Top Unicorn Investment 5小时前 363 Hold Bitcoin Mid-Term Short Positions, HYPE Successfully Rides the Wave for Profits | Guest Analysis 5小时前 402 Arthur Hayes: Middle East Flares Up, Time to Be Bullish on Bitcoin 5小时前 431 热门网站TempoLighterGAIB滑翔机普朗克雷尔斯BCPokerVooi Bee.com 全球最大的 Web3 门户网站 合作伙伴 硬币卡 Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive 装甲 下载蜜蜂网络APP，开始web3之旅 白皮书 角色 常见问题 © 2021-2026.保留所有权利。. 隐私政策 | 服务条款 下载蜜蜂网络 APP 并开始 web3 之旅 全球最大的 Web3 门户网站 合作伙伴 CoinCarp Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive Armors 白皮书 角色 常见问题 © 2021-2026.保留所有权利。. 隐私政策 | 服务条款 搜索 搜索InSite链上社会新闻 热门推荐： 空投猎人 数据分析 加密货币名人 陷阱探测器 简体中文 English 繁體中文 日本語 Tiếng Việt العربية 한국어 Bahasa Indonesia हिन्दी اردو Русский 简体中文

智能索引记录