Why does your coin keep falling despite all the major positive developments in this cycle? | Bee Network

Why does your coin keep falling despite all the major positive developments in this cycle? | Bee Network Login 热门新闻 备忘录启动板 人工智能代理 德西 TopChainExplorer 给 Newbee 100 倍金币 蜜蜂游戏 重要网站 必备应用程序 加密货币名人 德平 新手必备 陷阱探测器 基本工具 高级网站 交流 NFT 工具 你好、, 签出 Web3 宇宙 游戏 DApp 蜂巢 成长平台 生态 搜索 英语 充值金币 登录 下载 Web3 大学 游戏 DApp 蜂巢 生态 家•分析•正文 Why does your coin keep falling despite all the major positive developments in this cycle?分析3 个月前更新怀亚特 16,0281 17 编译自Odaily星球日报（ @OdailyChina ); Translated by Azuma ( @azuma_eth )

In this cycle, those who follow 加密currencies will often see news headlines like the following:

A certain ETF has been launched; A well-known company is integrating stablecoins; Regulation is becoming more friendly; Undoubtedly, these are the kinds of developments we wanted to see, so why has the market fallen to such a terrible state?

Why has the US stock market risen 15-20% this year, while Bitcoin has only experienced a rollercoaster ride of ups and downs? Why do you always end up getting deeper and deeper into losses with your favorite altcoins, even though the mainstream view no longer considers the cryptocurrency industry a scam?

Let’s talk about the reasons.

Using ≠ Rise Crypto Twitter is based on the deeply ingrained assumption that “once institutions come along, regulations become clear, and giants are willing to issue tokens… all problems will be solved, and prices will soar to the moon.”

Okay, they did come, you’ve 定义nitely seen it on the news, but you also see our current situation…

In the investment field, there is only one truly crucial question: Has the market already priced in the positive news?

This is always the hardest thing to judge, but market behavior is telling us a hard-to-accept fact: everything we wanted has come true, but prices haven’t gone up.

Is the market inefficient? Absolutely! Why is that? Because the pricing of most crypto assets is severely out of sync with reality.

What does a $1.5 trillion market capitalization of counterfeit goods actually represent? Let’s broaden our perspective.

Bitcoin is a completely independent asset class—a perfect narrative, just like gold. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of approximately $1.9 trillion, while gold has a market capitalization of approximately $29 trillion, meaning the former accounts for less than 10% of the latter’s market capitalization. This gives it a clear logic to its “hedging + options” value.

Ethereum, Ripple, Solana, and all other altcoins combined have a market capitalization of approximately $1.5 trillion, but their narrative foundations are far more fragile.

Few people now deny the potential of blockchain technology, and almost no one says the entire industry is a scam anymore; that phase has truly passed.

But “potential” cannot answer the real question – can this industry with only about 40 million active users really be worth trillions of dollars?

Meanwhile, rumors are circulating that OpenAI will IPO at a valuation of nearly $1 trillion, and its user base is said to be 20 times that of the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem. You can think about this comparison in detail.

At times like these, we must ask ourselves a real question: What is the best way to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies right now?

Historically, the answer has been infrastructure, such as early ETH, early SOL, or early DeFi tokens. This strategy worked at the time.

What about today? Most of these assets are priced as if we’ve already determined there will be a 100x increase in usage and a 100x increase in revenue. The pricing is perfect, but there’s no margin of safety.

The market isn’t stupid, it’s just greedy. During this period, the headlines we were expecting have all become reality… but a few facts have become clear:

The market doesn’t care about your story; it cares about the gap between price and fundamentals. If this gap persists, the market will eventually lose faith in you, especially after you start actually generating revenue. Cryptocurrencies are no longer the hottest trading subject; AI is. Money always chases momentum; that’s how modern markets work. Right now, AI is the main player, not cryptocurrency. Businesses follow business logic, not ideology. Stripe’s launch of Tempo is a wake-up call. Businesses won’t use public infrastructure just because they’ve heard Ethereum is the world computer on Bankless; they’ll go where their needs are best met. So I’m not surprised at all that your tokens haven’t gone up, even though Larry Fink (BlackRock CEO) has already entered the market.

When asset pricing is perfect, a tiny gesture from Powell (Chairman of the Federal Reserve) or a strange look from Huang (CEO of Nvidia) is enough to destroy an entire investment argument.

Quick calculations for ETH and SOL: Why is revenue not equal to profit? Let’s do some rough calculations on the mainstream Layer 1.

First, let’s look at staking—note that this is not profit:

Solana: The staked amount is approximately 419 million SOL, with an annualized return of approximately 6%, corresponding to an annual staking reward of approximately 25 million SOL. At an estimated value of $140 per SOL, this is worth approximately $3.5 billion. Ethereum: The staked amount is approximately 33.8 million ETH, with an annualized return of approximately 4%, corresponding to an annual staking reward of approximately 1.35 million ETH. At an estimated value of $3,100 per ETH, this is worth approximately $4.2 billion. Some might point to staking rewards and say, “Look, stakers get rewards! That’s value capture!”

That’s completely wrong. Staking rewards are not value capture; they are inflation, dilution, and security costs, not profits.

The real economic value comes from user payments, tips, and MEV (Mean Electricity), which is the part of a blockchain that is closest to “revenue”.

In this respect, Ethereum generated approximately $2.7 billion in transaction fees in 2024, leading all public chains; Solana, on the other hand, has recently taken the lead in network revenue, generating hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue each quarter.

So, let’s make a rough estimate of the current situation:

Ethereum has a market capitalization of approximately $400 billion and generates about $1-2 billion in “revenue” annually through fees and MEVs. This is equivalent to a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 200-400 times , based on “casino-style revenue” during periods of market frenzy. With a market capitalization of approximately $750-800 billion, Solana has annual revenue exceeding $1 billion. Based on the breadth of your estimated annual revenue (please do not select peak months and extrapolate from them to the whole year), its price-to-sales ratio is approximately 20-60 . These are not precise, nor is it necessary to be precise. We are not submitting documents to the SEC; we simply want to see if the same standards are being used when valuing such assets.

This doesn’t even touch on the real problem. The core issue is that this revenue is not sustainable, recurring—it’s not stable, enterprise-level long-term revenue; it stems from highly cyclical, speculative, recurring, but unstable trading activity .

Perpetual contracts; Meme token; Liquidation; MEV peak; Various forms of “on-chain casino-style” high-frequency speculation; In a bull market, network fees and MEV revenue both surge; but in a bear market, they vanish without a trace.

This isn’t “recurring revenue” for SaaS; it’s more like a Las Vegas casino. You wouldn’t give a company that only makes money when the casino is packed every 3-4 years a valuation multiple similar to Shopify’s.

Different businesses should have different valuation multiples.

Returning to “fundamentals” In any logically self-consistent universe, it is difficult to explain how Ethereum’s market capitalization of over $400 billion corresponds to a fee income of only $1-2 billion, which is highly cyclical. How can this be considered a “value” investment?

That implies a price-to-sales ratio of 200 to 400, even with slowing growth and value being continuously siphoned off by Layer 2. ETH’s role is like that of a strange federal government, only receiving “state-level taxes,” while the individual states (Layer 2) keep most of the added value for themselves.

We hyped ETH up to the “world computer,” but its cash flow situation doesn’t justify its price at all. Ethereum reminds me a lot of Cisco back in the day—early lead, misjudged valuation multiples, and an all-time high that may never be reached again.

In comparison, Solana seems less insane—not cheap, but not outrageous either. With a market cap of $750-800 billion, it could generate billions in annual revenue—generously estimating a price-to-sales ratio of 20-40. This is still high, still has a bubble, but is “relatively cheap” than ETH.

To understand these valuation multiples correctly, let’s look at Nvidia, the world’s most popular growth stock, whose price-to-earnings ratio is around 40-45 (note, not price-to-sales ratio), and it also possesses:

Real income; True profit margin; Global business needs; Sustainable and contractually guaranteed income; And customers outside of crypto casinos (it’s worth mentioning that cryptocurrency miners were Nvidia’s first truly high-growth source). To reiterate, the revenue streams for these blockchains are cyclical “casino-style revenues,” not stable, predictable cash flows. Strictly speaking, these blockchains should be traded at a discount, not at a premium to tech companies.

If the industry’s revenue cannot shift from speculative trading to real, recurring economic value, most valuations will be repriced.

We’re still in the early stages… but not the kind of early stages. One day, prices will return to fundamentals, but not yet.

Currently, there is no fundamental reason to pay high valuation multiples for most tokens. Many networks, after deducting subsidies and airdrop incentives, don’t capture any real value at all. Most of the “profits” are tied to speculative activities of casino-like products. We’ve built a track that allows for instant, low-cost global fund transfers 24/7… yet we believe its best use case is a slot machine.

This is short-term greed and long-term laziness.

To quote Netflix co-founder Marc Randolph: “Culture is not what you say, it’s what you do.” Don’t talk to me about decentralization when your flagship product is a 10x leveraged perpetual contract on Fartcoin.

We can do better. This is the only way for us to upgrade from an over-financialized niche casino to a truly long-term industry.

End of the initial phase I don’t think this is the end of the crypto industry, but I do think it’s the end of the “early stage”.

We have over-invested in infrastructure—more than a hundred billion dollars poured into blockchain, cross-chain bridges, Layer 2, and all kinds of infrastructure—but have seriously under-invested in actual deployment, products, and users.

We keep boasting:

TPS; Block space; fancy Rollup architecture; But users don’t care about these things; what they care about is:

Is it cheaper? Is it faster? Is it more convenient? And whether their problems have truly been solved; It’s time to return to cash flow, to the unit economics model, and to the most fundamental questions—who are our users? What are we trying to solve?

Where is the real upside potential? I have been a long-term bull on cryptocurrencies for over a decade, and that has not changed.

I still believe:

Stablecoins will become the default payment mechanism; Open, neutral infrastructure will underpin global finance behind the scenes; The company will use this technology because it is economically sound, not because of ideology; However, I believe the biggest winners of the next decade will not be today’s Layer 1 or Layer 2.

Historically, the winners of each technology cycle have emerged at the user aggregation layer, not the infrastructure layer. The internet made computing/storage cheap, and wealth flowed to Amazon, Google, and Apple—those who leveraged inexpensive infrastructure to serve billions of users.

Cryptocurrencies will be similar:

Block space is a commodity; The marginal benefits of infrastructure upgrades are diminishing. Users always pay for convenience; Those who can aggregate users will capture most of the value; The biggest opportunity now lies in integrating this technology into established businesses. Dismantling the outdated financial systems from before the internet age and replacing them with encrypted systems is possible, provided these new systems truly reduce costs and increase efficiency—just as the internet, with its undeniable economic impact, has quietly upgraded everything from retail to industry.

People embraced the internet and software because they were economically viable, and cryptocurrencies will be no exception.

We can wait another decade for it to happen. Or we can start taking action now.

Update your understanding So where are we now?

The technology remains viable, the potential is still enormous, and real-world applications are still in their early stages. Now is a good time to re-evaluate everything.

Revalue networks based on real-world usage and cost-effectiveness, rather than ideology; Not all income is created equal: it is important to distinguish between truly “sustainable” income and “cyclical” speculative income. The winners of the last decade will not dominate the next decade; Stop using token prices as a scoreboard for validating technology; We’re still in such a early stage that we’re like cavemen, judging a technology’s effectiveness by its token price. Nobody will choose AWS or Azure just because Amazon or Microsoft’s stock price went up one week.

We can wait another ten years for companies to adopt this technology, or we can start now and bring real GDP onto the blockchain.

The work is not yet finished; we must learn to think in reverse.

本文来源于互联网： Why does your coin keep falling despite all the major positive developments in this cycle?Recommended Articles

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