温馨提示：本站仅提供公开网络链接索引服务，不存储、不篡改任何第三方内容，所有内容版权归原作者所有
AI智能索引来源：http://www.bee.com/ko/60391.html
点击访问原文链接

Market Forecast 2.0 Outlook: 5 New Product Forms Beyond “Pure Gambling” | Bee Network

进入原网站 导航首页
Market Forecast 2.0 Outlook: 5 New Product Forms Beyond “Pure Gambling” | Bee Network Login 인기 뉴스 밈 런치패드 AI 에이전트 DeSci 탑체인 익스플로러 뉴비의 경우 100x 코인 꿀벌 게임 필수 웹사이트 필수 앱 암호화폐 유명인 드핀 루키 에센셜 함정 탐지기 기본 도구 고급 웹사이트 교환 NFT 도구 안녕, 로그아웃 웹3 유니버스 계략 DApp 꿀벌 하이브 성장하는 플랫폼 기원 후 찾다 영어 코인 충전 로그인 다운로드 웹3 유니 계략 DApp 꿀벌 하이브 기원 후 집•분석•본문 Market Forecast 2.0 Outlook: 5 New Product Forms Beyond “Pure Gambling”분석4개월 전업데이트와이엇 16,518 7 Odaily Planet Daily Golem에서 편집( @웹3_골렘 )

In the future, prediction markets may be dominated by Polymarket/Kalshi, capturing all the attention and market share. But even so, we may eventually use newly designed prediction markets that can meet everyone’s needs and fit their preferences and interests.

How did the trading of Meme coins evolve? In 2015, we only needed to buy tokens with a dog printed on them. By 2025, we needed to learn how to use tools (Axiom), track wallets (Cielo, Nansen, Arkham), and join a community to search for tokens on platforms like Solana, BNB, and Base with other people.

Every opportunity in the 암호화폐 space begins with a simple model. Over time, these simple models either die out (e.g., NFT) or become more complex as more players join, diminishing their early advantages (e.g., Memecoins). Of course, users also crave more complex games, as evidenced by the evolution of most video games (God of War, Assassin’s Creed, FIFA, etc.). To maintain appeal and relevance to their core user base, gaming and game-like platforms need to increase functionality and complexity, enabling top players to stand out from the 99%.

When this happens again, and it resonates with the prediction market category, it will no longer be a single, massive platform, but a complete ecosystem encompassing numerous prediction-related applications.

These standalone products can leverage the core mechanisms of prediction markets (incentive-driven prediction and stakeholder engagement) to create entirely new experiences. Here are five highly anticipated categories:

Impact of Expected Transactions: Taking Lightcone as an Example
This is perhaps the newest and most complex original concept, transcending the realm of probability to allow users to trade the impact of events.

This can be understood as follows: the prediction market tells you the probability (P) of an event occurring, while the spot market tells you the spot price (S) of the event occurring. However, Lightcone ‘s new category, “Influence 시장s,” aims to separate and price influence (I).

The platform works by cloning assets into “parallel universes” based on future events. For example, a user could deposit 1 BTC before the US election and then receive two new tradable tokens, Trump-BTC and Kamala-BTC.

These tokens trade in a separate “parallel universe.” When an event occurs (for example, if Trump wins), all Trump-BTC can be exchanged for real Bitcoin, while all Kamala-BTC will go to zero (and vice versa).

The advantage of this model is that it has spawned two entirely new applications:

A new information machine: It provides us with an experimental ground for predicting financial impact. By comparing the prices of Trump-BTC (e.g., $130,000) and Kamala-BTC (e.g., $91,000) with the current spot Bitcoin price ($102,000), the market clearly tells us the expected financial impact of each outcome, completely unrelated to the probability of the outcome occurring. Event-based hedging: Traders can hedge specific risks without paying a premium unless the risk occurs. For example, a trader concerned about a specific credit event (such as a Saylor default) could hold strSolvent-BTC while selling their strDefault-BTC in exchange for strDefault-USDC.

If a default occurs, their strDefault-USDC will become real USDC. They successfully hedged and sold Bitcoin before the event; if no default occurs, their strSolvent-BTC can be redeemed for their original Bitcoin. They still hold a long position, and the hedging operation incurred no costs.

This is a complex tool. It removes the “probability” variable from trading, allowing institutions and traders to trade based solely on influencing factors, which is truly a completely new financial foundation.

Public Opinion Market: Betting on Belief This is a fascinating concept where participants no longer bet on objective facts (such as “Can Ethereum reach $5,000?”), but rather on what people will believe.

For example: “Would more than 70% of participants bet ‘yes’ in this market?”

This model has two major advantages:

Fast settlement: The market can settle daily or every few hours based solely on its internal dynamics. It does not rely on slow external oracles. Social capital monetization rewards players who can accurately predict collective psychology rather than facts. It is a direct way to monetize cultural influence and cultural understanding. Currently, platforms such as Melee , vPOP 및 opinions.fun are trying to build this model, enabling people to convert social capital into profits.

Virtual Sports: High-Frequency Prediction Market Virtual sports is a $25 billion industry, at its core a cyclical prediction market.

On the Football.Fun platform, users don’t just place a single bet; they make combined predictions. Building a team is essentially a bet on the overall performance of the players, with all players subject to budget constraints.

This model is powerful because:

It can generate consistent, periodic betting volume (e.g., weekly NFL/NBA/PL tournaments). It allows users to monetize the expertise they accumulate by watching more than 10 hours of games per week. The inherent advantage of cryptocurrencies lies in their tradable assets. Digital player cards are essentially predictions of a player’s in-game value. Cryptocurrency-native virtual sports allow players to profit through participation in pure player card trading (similar to gashapon boxes or physical collectibles) and regularly running, cyclical prediction market games.

Opportunity Market: Private Equity Information Mining This is the second innovative mechanism proposed by the Paradigm team, which enables prediction markets to solve a problem faced by businesses: finding valuable early information.

The model is as follows:

Venture Capital (VC): Provides all liquidity to the private market (e.g., “Will we invest in startup Y this year?”). Investigator (Expert): Uses their information and expertise to purchase shares of “Yes”. Signal: Price increases have become a proprietary aggregation signal for VCs/institutions, suggesting that the market should investigate/re-investigate the project. This is essentially a decentralized reconnaissance program. It can also solve the “free-rider problem” (the signal is private and only the initiator can access it) and the liquidity problem (the initiator is a permanent market maker) in some way.

Betting on the wisdom of market governance This is a governance model that delegates policy-making power to market wisdom. Its core concept is: “People vote based on values, but they bet based on beliefs.”

The operation method is as follows:

A DAO agrees on a certain value or goal (e.g., “maximize monthly active users”). Submit a proposal (“Proposal 123: Spend 50,000 tokens to launch a new incentive campaign”). Create two conditional prediction markets: Market A, “If proposal 123 passes, what will the number of monthly active users be on December 31st?”; Market B, “If proposal 123 fails, what will the number of monthly active users be on December 31st?”. If the price (predicted value) in market A is higher than that in market B, the proposal will be automatically approved.

It forces participants to invest in their beliefs, transforming governance from a subjective popularity contest into an information-driven practice.

But frankly, innovation in the application of prediction markets goes far beyond this. In addition to the applications listed above, we’ve also seen concepts like the Boring News news platform based on prediction markets and the PolyFund, a dedicated prediction market fund, under development.

The design potential of the prediction market application layer is only just beginning to be explored, and we are not optimistic enough yet.

이 글은 인터넷에서 퍼왔습니다: Market Forecast 2.0 Outlook: 5 New Product Forms Beyond “Pure Gambling”Recommended Articles

Related: Jim Chanos, the “cynical” strategist on Wall Street, pulled off a perfect move: shorting MSTR and going long on BTC.Reco Original author: Proto Staff Original translation by Peggy, BlockBeats Editor’s Note: While Strategy has turned “holding Bitcoin through a company” into a belief, Jim Chanos has chosen to bet in the opposite direction: shorting MSTR and going long on BTC. Seemingly divergent, yet essentially the same: both are exploiting structural biases in the market, one leveraging conviction, the other defusing the bubble with rationality. In this contest over valuation and liquidity, faith and skepticism are not clearly distinct, but rather two choices that reflect each other. The following is the original text: Jim Chanos, a well-known “cynical” investor on Wall Street, has closed out his highly publicized and controversial short-selling trade against Michael Saylor’s Strategy—it is speculated that he made a profit of approximately 100% by shorting the company’s common…

# 분석# 비트코인# 암호# 이더리움# 교환# 마켓# 밈 코인# NFT# 토큰# 도구# 웹3© 版权声명배열 上一篇 Zcash surged 10 times in a short period; is the privacy sector becoming the next narrative? 下一篇 Of the potential $8 billion DeFi disaster, only $100 million has already been triggered. 상关文章 From Helium to Jupiter: Why Has Token Buyback Become an “Ineffective Remedy”? 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 12,074 2 Dialogue with Jack, head of the FutureDAO Foundation: When Nasdaq enters the market, who can get on the historic RWA tra 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 18,676 2 Billions of capital poured in, predicting a panoramic view of the market 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 17,100 Who will own the most Bitcoin in 2025? 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 23,263 The Silver Crisis: When Paper Systems Begin to Fail 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 21,438 Weekly Token Unlocks: RIVER to Unlock Nearly 8% of Circulating Supply 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 11,289 1 댓글 없음 댓글을 남기시려면 로그인이 필요합니다! 즉시 로그인 댓글이 없습니다... Bee.com 세계 최대의 Web3 포털 파트너 코인카프 바이낸스 코인마켓캡 코인게코 코인라이브 갑옷 Bee Network 앱을 다운로드하고 web3 여정을 시작하세요 백지 역할 자주하는 질문 © 2021-2026. 모든 권리 보유. 개인 정보 정책 | 서비스 약관 꿀벌 네트워크 앱 다운로드 Web3 여정을 시작해보세요 세계 최대의 Web3 포털 파트너 CoinCarp Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive Armors 백지 역할 자주하는 질문 © 2021-2026. 모든 권리 보유. 개인 정보 정책 | 서비스 약관 찾다 찾다사이트에온체인사회의소식 熱门推荐 : 에어드롭 헌터 데이터 분석 암호화폐 유명인 함정 탐지기 한국어 English 繁體中文 简体中文 日本語 Tiếng Việt العربية Bahasa Indonesia हिन्दी اردو Русский 한국어

智能索引记录