温馨提示：本站仅提供公开网络链接索引服务，不存储、不篡改任何第三方内容，所有内容版权归原作者所有
AI智能索引来源：http://www.bee.com/ko/58857.html
点击访问原文链接

A fractured prosperity: trade wars, the AI bubble, and political rifts | Bee Network

进入原网站 导航首页
A fractured prosperity: trade wars, the AI bubble, and political rifts | Bee Network Login 인기 뉴스 밈 런치패드 AI 에이전트 DeSci 탑체인 익스플로러 뉴비의 경우 100x 코인 꿀벌 게임 필수 웹사이트 필수 앱 암호화폐 유명인 드핀 루키 에센셜 함정 탐지기 기본 도구 고급 웹사이트 교환 NFT 도구 안녕, 로그아웃 웹3 유니버스 계략 DApp 꿀벌 하이브 성장하는 플랫폼 기원 후 찾다 영어 코인 충전 로그인 다운로드 웹3 유니 계략 DApp 꿀벌 하이브 기원 후 집•분석•A fractured prosperity: trade wars, the AI bubble, and political rifts A fractured prosperity: trade wars, the AI bubble, and political rifts분석4개월 전업데이트와이엇 17,3691 12 Original translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

2025 is a turning point in the economic cycle.

The market is caught in a paradox.

Beneath the surface calm of soft landing optimism, the global economy is quietly fracturing, unfolding along the lines of trade policy, credit expansion and technological overextension.

The next dislocation in the global economy will not arise from a single failure—neither from tariffs nor from AI debt—but from feedback loops between policies, leverage, and beliefs.

We are witnessing the late stages of a supercycle, in which technology underpins growth, fiscal populism replaces trade liberalism, and trust in currency is slowly eroding.

The boom is not over yet, but it is beginning to break.

This week’s fluctuations are small but significant.

The Volatility Index experienced its biggest surge since April as concerns about US-China tariffs reignited, before retreating before the weekend following President Trump’s confirmation that the proposed 100% import tariffs would be “unsustainable.” Equity markets breathed a sigh of relief; the S&P 500 stabilized. However, this relief was superficial; the deeper narrative was one of exhausted policy tools and overstretched optimism.

The illusion of stability The July US-EU trade agreement was intended to anchor a fragile system.

Yet it is now unravelling amidst the climate regulation controversy and US protectionism. Washington’s demand for US companies to be exempted from ESG and carbon disclosure rules highlights a growing ideological divide: decarbonisation in Europe versus deregulation in the US.

Meanwhile, new Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports, including a ban on magnets containing trace amounts of the metal from China, exposed strategic vulnerabilities in global supply chains. The US responded by threatening to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, a political gesture with global consequences. Although the threat was later withdrawn, it served as a reminder to markets that trade has become weaponized finance, leveraging domestic sentiment rather than economic rationality.

The World Trade Organization’s warning of a sharp slowdown in goods trade by 2026 reflects a reality: companies are no longer investing in supply chains with confidence but with contingency plans.

AI Super Cycle Meanwhile, in the AI economy, a second narrative is unfolding that is more subtle but potentially more consequential.

We are crossing from productive expansion to speculative finance, where “supplier financing is surging and coverage is thinning.” Hyperscale companies are now leveraging their balance sheets faster than their revenues can justify, a classic sign of late-cycle exuberance.

This is nothing new. Of the 21 major investment booms since 1790, 18 have ended in collapse, usually when the quality of financing deteriorated. Today’s AI capital spending frenzy resembles the telecom bubble of the late 1990s: real infrastructure gains entangled with credit-fueled speculation. Special purpose vehicles, vendor financing, and structured debt—the tools that once inflated mortgage-backed securities—are making a comeback, this time disguised as “computing power” and “GPU liquidity.”

The irony? The AI boom is productive, just unevenly distributed. Microsoft financed its expansion with traditional bonds, a sign of confidence. CoreWeave, through a special purpose vehicle, a sign of stress. Both are expanding, but one is building enduring capabilities; the other is building fragility.

Fluctuating symptoms The surge in the VIX reflects deeper market unease: policy uncertainty, concentrated equity leadership, and credit stress beneath a veneer of booming valuations.

When the Fed now signals rate cuts amid slowing growth, it’s not stimulus, it’s risk management. The two-year Treasury yield, which has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, tells us that investors are pricing in a deflation of confidence, not just interest rates. 시장s may still cheer every dovish turn, but every rate cut undermines the illusion that growth is self-sustaining.

General: Trade, Technology and Trust The connecting thread between tariff politics and the excitement over AI is trust, or more precisely, the erosion of trust.

The government no longer trusts its trading partners.

Investors no longer trust policy consistency.

Companies no longer trust demand signals, so they overbuild.

Gold’s breakout above $4,000 isn’t so much about inflation as it is about the erosion of faith in the fiat currency system, in globalization, and in institutional coordination. It’s a hedge, not against price inflation, but against policy entropy.

앞으로 나아갈 길 We are entering a “fractured boom”: a period of nominal growth and market highs juxtaposed with structural vulnerabilities:

AI investments will drive GDP in the same way that railroads did in the 19th century.

Trade protectionism stimulates local production while draining global liquidity.

Financial volatility oscillates between euphoria and policy panic.

At this stage, risks are cumulative.

Every tariff rollback, every capital spending announcement, every rate cut prolongs the cycle but compresses its eventual collapse. The question is not whether the AI or trade bubble will burst, but how intertwined the two have become when they do.

이 글은 인터넷에서 퍼왔습니다: A fractured prosperity: trade wars, the AI bubble, and political riftsRecommended Articles

Related: NAKA’s stock price plummeted 54% in one day. Is the market tired of DAT? On September 15th, KindlyMD (NAKA), a digital asset management (DAT) company, saw its share price plummet to $1.28, a 54% drop in the 24 hours prior to press time and a more than 90% drop in a month. The healthcare-turned-Bitcoin (BTC) asset manager is facing pressure from both its equity dilution plan and widespread investor fatigue with its digital asset treasury (DAT) strategy. KindlyMD, originally listed on the Nasdaq, is an integrated medical technology company. Its transformation began with its merger with Bitcoin (BTC) asset Nakamoto Holdings. Its founder, David Bailey, served as a crypto policy advisor to former US President Trump and is very familiar with industry regulatory trends. A month ago, KindlyMD announced plans to raise $540 million through a stock offering to expand its Bitcoin reserves. In…

# 분석# 마켓# 도구© 版权声명배열 上一篇 Dialogue with Tether CEO: Let each employee generate $100 million in profits 下一篇 "Painting the door" twice a day: In a hellish market, some people can still make $5 million 상关文章 Airdrop Weekly Report | Monad plans to hold TGE on November 24; Ethena opens applications for Q4 airdrops (November 3-9) 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 16,273 From Bitcoin Core to the Trump Administration: Uncovering the Crypto Power Network of Epstein, Peter Thiel, and Putin 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 7,237 1 The market remains volatile, and the BNB Chain Meme craze is rising｜Frontier Lab Crypto Market Weekly Report 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 37,639 4 24H Hot Cryptocurrencies and Key News｜Prince Group Founder Chen Zhi Deported to China; Polymarket Rules US Military Venezuela Operation Does Not Constitute “Invasion” (January 8) 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 11,160 2 Messari 2026 Crypto Thesis: Why Speculation Is No Longer Enough (Part 1) 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 17,797 1 Metrics Ventures Market Watch: The Long Winter Night for Altcoins and the Momentum Vacuum for US Dollar Assets 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 28,660 댓글 1 개 댓글을 남기시려면 로그인이 필요합니다! 즉시 로그인 muran 손님 bdd

1개월 전 최신 기사 Did Jane Street “Manipulate” BTC? Decoding the AP System, Understanding the Power Struggle Behind ETF Creation and Redemption Pricing 17시간 전 544 Stop Comparing Bitcoin to Gold—It’s Now a High-Volatility Software Stock 17시간 전 652 Matrixport Research: $25 Billion Gamma Unwinding Imminent, Liquidity Yet to Return Behind the Rebound 17시간 전 601 ERC-5564: Ethereum’s Stealth Era Has Arrived, Receiving Addresses No Longer ‘Exposed’ 17시간 전 538 Hong Kong Regulatory Green Light: Asseto Enables DL Holdings to Achieve Compliance for Two RWA Business Implementations 17시간 전 589 인기 있는 웹사이트TempoLighterGAIB글라이더PlanckRaylsBCPokerVooi Bee.com 세계 최대의 Web3 포털 파트너 코인카프 바이낸스 코인마켓캡 코인게코 코인라이브 갑옷 Bee Network 앱을 다운로드하고 web3 여정을 시작하세요 백지 역할 자주하는 질문 © 2021-2026. 모든 권리 보유. 개인 정보 정책 | 서비스 약관 꿀벌 네트워크 앱 다운로드 Web3 여정을 시작해보세요 세계 최대의 Web3 포털 파트너 CoinCarp Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive Armors 백지 역할 자주하는 질문 © 2021-2026. 모든 권리 보유. 개인 정보 정책 | 서비스 약관 찾다 찾다사이트에온체인사회의소식 熱门推荐 : 에어드롭 헌터 데이터 분석 암호화폐 유명인 함정 탐지기 한국어 English 繁體中文 简体中文 日本語 Tiếng Việt العربية Bahasa Indonesia हिन्दी اردو Русский 한국어

智能索引记录