温馨提示:本站仅提供公开网络链接索引服务,不存储、不篡改任何第三方内容,所有内容版权归原作者所有
AI智能索引来源:http://www.bee.com/ja/65247.html
点击访问原文链接

The U.S. Government Shutdown is Difficult Because Both Parties Have Already Calculated the Costs | Bee Network

The U.S. Government Shutdown is Difficult Because Both Parties Have Already Calculated the Costs | Bee Network Login トレンドニュース ミーム・ローンチパッド AIエージェント デサイ トップチェーンエクスプローラー 初心者向け 100x コイン ビーゲーム 重要なウェブサイト 必須のアプリ クリプトセレブリティ デピン ルーキーズ・エッセンシャル トラップディテクタ 基本的なツール 高度な Web サイト 交換 NFTツール こんにちは、 サインアウト Web3 ユニバース ゲーム ダップ ミツバチの巣 成長するプラットフォーム 広告 検索 英語 コインをリチャージする ログイン ダウンロード Web3 ユニ ゲーム ダップ ミツバチの巣 広告 ホーム-分析-The U.S. Government Shutdown is Difficult Because Both Parties Have Already Calculated the Costs The U.S. Government Shutdown is Difficult Because Both Parties Have Already Calculated the Costs分析1ヶ月前更新ワイアット 8,117 2 Author|Golem (@ウェブ3_ゴーレム)

A major macro event this month is whether the U.S. government will shut down at the end of January. Last October, the U.S. government shut down for 43 days, and it only resumed operations after a temporary funding bill was passed. January 30th is the expiration date of that temporary funding bill. If Congress fails to pass a formal appropriations bill or a new temporary bill, the U.S. government will shut down again.

The current dispute between the two major U.S. political parties primarily revolves around funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Democrats argue that ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) had problematic enforcement actions in Minnesota, resulting in two deaths, and they seek strict limitations on funding and related operations. Republicans disagree, viewing ICE as a crucial force against illegal immigration and welfare fraud, leading to a stalemate. (For details on the partisan dispute, read: 《U.S. Government Shutdown Storm Brews Again, Will Crypto Replay the Crash Script?》)

It is precisely this confrontational state and the approaching deadline that have sharply increased the probability of a U.S. government shutdown by the end of January in prediction markets. However, this morning, data from Polymarket shows that the probability of a U.S. government shutdown by the end of January has continued to decline, now falling to 42%, down from a previous high of 80%.

Price changes in prediction markets reflect the outcome of collective wisdom. The rising probability of the government *not* shutting down indicates that people believe the previously high certainty of a shutdown, as suggested by the market, no longer exists given the current U.S. political situation.

Midterm Elections Are the Key Focus for U.S. Parties On January 28th, regarding the risk of another U.S. government shutdown, Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the situation remains unclear but emphasized that President Trump has urged Democrats to avoid this outcome.

This shutdown crisis is essentially because Republicans have given Democrats a political counterattack opportunity. The January 24th shooting of a U.S. citizen by ICE agents in Minnesota was a result of the Trump administration’s intensified immigration enforcement, leading to large-scale public protests. Democrats seized this moment, using it as an excuse in the Senate to block the appropriations bill. Because this reflects voter sentiment, Democrats have gained political initiative in this counterattack.

Republicans are thus in a passive position. If a government shutdown does occur, Democrats could blame subsequent economic and social issues (delayed economic data releases, widespread airport delays, etc.) on Republican incompetence.

This series of potential chain reactions would also impact the issue both parties truly care about this year: the U.S. midterm elections.

The U.S. “midterm elections” occur in the second year of a presidential term. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, and approximately one-third of Senate seats are typically contested. Currently, Republicans hold a majority in both the House (218 seats) and the Senate (53 seats). For Republicans to maintain their majority after the year-end elections and ease governance, they must avoid accumulating too many political “blemishes” this year.

Furthermore, although midterm elections do not involve the presidency, they are seen as a “midterm referendum” on the incumbent president, influencing policy direction for the latter two years of the term and reshaping intra-party power structures and the candidate landscape for the next presidential election. Therefore, it is also extremely important for Trump.

From the above analysis, it’s clear this potential shutdown is not merely a funding issue but a political battleground laid out in advance by both parties for the year-end midterm elections. The passive Republicans have a high probability of compromising to resolve the crisis and conflict.

For Democrats, Republican compromise would itself constitute a political victory.

Compromise is Already Underway This potential U.S. government shutdown crisis is unlikely to be a “full shutdown” like last October’s (when all 12 appropriations bills expired). The scale would likely be much smaller. Funding for the Commerce Department (responsible for releasing GDP data) and the Agriculture Department (responsible for food benefits) is already secured. However, about 78% of federal government functions—involving the remaining 6 appropriations bills—could face funding lapses.

Democrats have already offered Republicans a way out. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) stated on January 28th that Senate Democrats are “prepared to move quickly on five appropriations bills before the January 30th deadline, separate from the Department of Homeland Security appropriations bill,” which could be a path to avoid a large-scale shutdown. However, Senate Republicans have not yet agreed to separate the DHS bill from the overall package.

On the other hand, demanding amendments to DHS funding before January 30th is unrealistic, as any changes to the remaining six bills would have to go back to the House for approval, and the House is not scheduled to reconvene until February 2nd.

For Democrats, forcing a shutdown by being overly rigid on amending the bills offers little benefit and could even reverse the political dynamics with Republicans. Therefore, the current consensus between the parties may be to pass another temporary funding bill, first solving the immediate shutdown threat and postponing their deeper conflicts.

As Odaily was writing this article speculating on potential compromise to avoid a shutdown, The New York Times also reported that Trump and Chuck Schumer are working on a potential deal to avert a government shutdown.

According to two officials familiar with the matter, under the developing plan, the Senate would separate one bill from the six spending bills—the one funding the Department of Homeland Security—to keep funding for the military, healthcare programs, and other federal agencies for the remainder of the fiscal year. The Senate would pass these bills before the Friday midnight deadline, and Congress would also consider a short-term extension for Homeland Security operations to prevent service disruptions at the TSA, Coast Guard, and FEMA.

It remains unclear how this potential deal will affect this week’s appropriations bill votes, but it at least indicates that both the White House and the Senate are working towards resolving the crisis.

この記事はインターネットから得たものです。 The U.S. Government Shutdown is Difficult Because Both Parties Have Already Calculated the Costs

Related: From Aave to Ether.fi: Who has captured the most value in the on-chain credit system? Compiled by Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina ) Translator | Dingdang ( @XiaMiPP ) As vaults and curators gain market share in the DeFi world, questions are emerging: Are lending protocols seeing their profit margins squeezed? Is lending no longer a good business? However, if we shift our perspective back to the entire on-chain credit value chain , the conclusion is quite the opposite. Lending protocols still constitute the strongest moat in this value chain. We can quantify this with data. On Aave and SparkLend, the interest fees paid by the vault to the lending protocols actually exceed the revenue generated by the vault itself. This fact directly challenges the mainstream narrative that “distribution is king.” At least in the lending sector, distribution is not king. In short: Aave not…

#分析#暗号# マーケット#ウェブ3© 版权声明配列 上一篇 Odaily Interview with OKX Planet: Exchanges Building Communities Aim to Solve Far More Than Just Information Problems 下一篇 The Big Year for Crypto IPOs: The Path to Public Markets for "Pick-and-Shovel" Players 相关文章 ICE, Parent Company of NYSE, Makes Major Moves with Index Futures Contracts and Predictive Market Sentiment Tools 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 6,927 2 新しいLatest Stablecoin Report: Real Distribution and Flow Are Far More Important Than Supply 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 2,655 1 Pentagon Pizza Index Soars 1250%: Who Will Be the Next Venezuela? 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 15,701 3 Must-watch next week | Encryption-related policies will officially take effect in multiple regions; Lighter expects TGE (December 29 – January 4) to come soon. 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 14,847 4 熱いニューヨーク・タイムズ紙トランプは暗号通貨を資本狂乱に追い込んでいる。. 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 16,481 Reflection on the AI agent entrepreneurship model: Attention is not everything, real demand is the key 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 36,564 コメントはありません コメントを残すにはログインが必要です! すぐにログイン コメントはありません... 最新記事 Did Jane Street “Manipulate” BTC? Decoding the AP System, Understanding the Power Struggle Behind ETF Creation and Redemption Pricing 19時間前 589 Stop Comparing Bitcoin to Gold—It’s Now a High-Volatility Software Stock 19時間前 672 Matrixport Research: $25 Billion Gamma Unwinding Imminent, Liquidity Yet to Return Behind the Rebound 19時間前 615 ERC-5564: Ethereum’s Stealth Era Has Arrived, Receiving Addresses No Longer ‘Exposed’ 19時間前 530 Hong Kong Regulatory Green Light: Asseto Enables DL Holdings to Achieve Compliance for Two RWA Business Implementations 19時間前 597 人気のウェブサイトTempoLighterGAIBグライダープランクレイリーズBCPoker(ビーシーポーカーヴーイ Bee.com 世界最大の Web3 ポータル パートナー コインカープ バイナンス コインマーケットキャップ CoinGecko コインライブ Bee Network APP をダウンロードして、Web3 の旅を始めましょう 白書 役割 よくある質問 © 2021-2026.無断複写・転載を禁じます。. プライバシーポリシー | 利用規約 Bee Networkアプリをダウンロード そしてWeb3の旅を始めましょう 世界最大のWeb3ポータル パートナー CoinCarp Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive Armors 白書 役割 よくある質問 © 2021-2026.無断複写・転載を禁じます。. プライバシーポリシー | 利用規約 検索 検索インサイトオンチェーン社交ニュース 热门推荐: エアドロップハンター データ分析 クリプトセレブリティ トラップディテクタ 日本語 English 繁體中文 简体中文 Tiếng Việt العربية 한국어 Bahasa Indonesia हिन्दी اردو Русский 日本語

智能索引记录