Only when the tide recedes can we see the future. | Bee Network

Only when the tide recedes can we see the future. | Bee Network Login トレンドニュース ミーム・ローンチパッド AIエージェント デサイ トップチェーンエクスプローラー 初心者向け 100x コイン ビーゲーム 重要なウェブサイト 必須のアプリ クリプトセレブリティ デピン ルーキーズ・エッセンシャル トラップディテクタ 基本的なツール 高度な Web サイト 交換 NFTツール こんにちは、 サインアウト Web3 ユニバース ゲーム ダップ ミツバチの巣 成長するプラットフォーム 広告 検索 英語 コインをリチャージする ログイン ダウンロード Web3 ユニ ゲーム ダップ ミツバチの巣 広告 ホーム-分析-本文 Only when the tide recedes can we see the future.分析3ヶ月前更新ワイアット 14,035 11 A group of people jumped out and said, “See? I told you it was a scam.”

Then, when the market turns around, the same group of people line up, chase the highs, and shout “Awesome!”

After eight years in this industry, I’ve become numb to these extreme emotional swings.

But the truth is:

When we talk about prices, we’re actually talking about the future. Because price is never the “present,” but rather the market’s discounted representation of the future. If we continue to focus solely on prices, the future will slip away before our eyes.

Moreover, there’s a very real pattern in bear markets: everyone sees the decline, but I see a stratification. Sentiment is receding, industries are being filtered out, and the future is being rearranged.

At the same time, I’m also thinking, “Why are there more and more new projects, but fewer and fewer truly meaningful ones?” and “We all know the industry is going to change, but how exactly will it change?”

That’s why I wanted to write this article. It’s not to hype things up or shout “the bull market will come back,” but rather to show you, in the simplest and most authentic way, what’s happening in this industry right now, and what will happen in the future, from Jiayi’s perspective.

Bull markets are just noise; bear markets are the magnifying glass, the microscope, the revealing mirror. Amidst the fog of emotions, I want to take you to a higher vantage point to see where the future course lies after the tide recedes.

I. Why I say that bubbles are the biggest positive factor in 2025

In 2025, there is a very obvious fact, but most people are unwilling to admit it: we did not see the emergence of “counterfeit bulls”, but instead ushered in a round of systemic de-bubbling ahead of schedule.

Many people interpret this as a bad thing, but if you look at the long term, you will find that these years of “price drops before prices rise” are actually the best time for the industry to develop a truly mature structure.

Why? Because it’s exactly the same as the early days of the internet, except the speed was amplified by the leverage of 暗号.

If you want to truly understand crypto today, the simplest way is to view it as an “accelerated version” of the early internet.

Many people believe that the chaos, bubble, and speculation in crypto are the industry’s unique “original sin.”

But if you extend the timeline, you’ll find that this is not an isolated case at all, but rather a standard feature of almost all technological revolutions—

The internet was just as crazy in 2000.

I previously wrote an article titled “From ‘Burning Money’ to Building an Industry Ecosystem: Web3 is Following the Same Path as the Internet,” which discussed this logic: given the amplified leverage efficiency, the market operation methods of Web2, the Internet, and crypto are essentially converging. It’s just that the path the Internet took twenty years to complete may take crypto less than ten years.

1.1 Internet finance has gone through the exact same cycle of “incomprehension → frenzy → collapse → reconstruction”.

If you think the crypto market is dramatic, it’s only because you’ve forgotten the first half of the internet’s history.

In 1999, anyone with “.com” in their name could raise funds. eToys’ stock price surged 900% on its first day of trading, with investors going crazy like they did during Crypto’s early days of copycats.

Then the foam burst.

The Nasdaq plummeted from over 5,000 points to 1,114; media headlines proclaimed “Internet Scam”; everyone said the internet was doomed.

That feeling was almost exactly the same as Crypto’s today:

People who don’t understand it call it a scam. Even those who understand it are blinded by the bubble. Finally, let’s all trample together. Then everyone collectively began to doubt the future itself. Ironically, the true internet age began the moment the bubble burst. When the tide recedes, it not only reveals who was swimming naked, but also helps us identify the true swimmers most likely to reach the other side.

In 2002, Amazon’s stock price was only $0.60. Google wasn’t even publicly listed yet. Those companies that survived, in those years when they were least noticed, actually built up the real infrastructure, business models, and profit models.

Crypto’s current situation is most similar to 2002–2004: not the hottest years, but the most crucial years.

The bursting of the bubble cleared away the noise, and only then did trends, directions, infrastructure, and the real players begin to enter the “construction phase.”

That’s why I say the 2025 bubble is a good thing. Because what really matters only appears after the bubble bursts.

1.2 Negation of Negation: The industry does not rise in a straight line, but rather spirals upwards.

I particularly like the concept of “negation of negation” because it is so suitable for describing the evolution of technology and industry.

“Negation of Negation”: The development of things is never a straight upward line. It’s more like “going up in circles”: every time you think you’ve returned to the starting point, you’re actually already on a higher level.

The most typical example is the three iterations of computing architecture.

1950s: IBM Mainframe – Centralized Computing power is concentrated in the hands of a very few institutions—governments, banks, and large corporations. This is the first time such concentration has occurred: whoever owns the machines has the power. 1980s: The PC Revolution – Decentralization Steve Jobs famously said, “The computer is the people’s bicycle.” Computing power moved from server rooms to everyone’s desktop, and everyone had their own computer—a move akin to a rejection of centralized power. Computing began to decentralize, becoming personalized and localized. 2010s: Cloud Computing – A Centralized “Negation of Negation,” Reaching a Higher Level AWS, Alibaba Cloud, and various public clouds are recentralizing computing power back to data centers. On the surface, this seems like a return to the “mainframe era”: Once again, a few giants have mastered massive computing power. It may seem that cloud computing has reverted to “mainframe centralization,” but it is fundamentally not at the same level:

Terminal sovereignty comes from PCs.

– Elastic computing power comes from the cloud.

– The advantages of two generations of technology are combined.

Crypto and internet finance are now following exactly the same path:

Phase 1: Nobody understands, but the direction is vaguely there. Phase Two: Everyone’s in a frenzy, the bubble inflates to the sky (we just went through that). Phase Three: Bubble Burst → Separating the Fake from the Real → Spiraling Upward (This is 2025) Do you think the industry has “come back”? Actually, it’s not returning to the starting point, but rather to a higher “origin”.

Trends, technology stack, capital structure, and regulatory path are all being rearranged in this round.

2025, the most important signal before the next round begins.

II. 2025 is the prologue, 2026 is the main body: the real trends in the industry are taking shape. Whoever solves the fundamental challenge of achieving a complete integration of Crypto and traditional finance will dominate the market for the next five years.

The year 2025 feels quite strange.

The candlestick chart looks like a bull market, but the market sentiment looks like a bear market.

Regulation is progressing, but expectations are declining;

Narratives abound, but making money is harder than ever.

Looking to the future, I boldly predict that pure Crypto Native innovation will face bottlenecks. True breakthroughs and effective innovation will emerge in the direction of ‘the complete integration of Crypto x Traditional Finance,’ that is, composite innovations that can simultaneously address the needs of both Web2 and Web3 financial markets.

2.1 Everything that happened in 2025 points to the same thing: the industry is “restructuring its framework”.

Bitcoin surged to $126,000, and mainstream assets followed suit, but altcoins generally saw a decline in popularity with each subsequent surge. Secondary markets appeared to be rising, but ultimately, account balances didn’t increase… This is the most surreal experience of 2025.

But when you look at 2025 from a “structural” perspective, the year suddenly becomes very clear: For the first time, the United States, Europe, and Asia are all accelerating their policy efforts in the same year.

This is the first time we’ve seen the US SEC adopt a more friendly attitude towards ETFs and cryptocurrencies. BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP have all launched spot ETFs. The door is open. The stablecoin bill provides a clear framework nationwide for the first time. The European MiCA has truly taken root, with dozens of licensed institutions emerging. RWA has become a key pilot area for regulation in various regions. For the first time, crypto has been institutionalized and integrated into the global financial system. Early crypto OGs (Original Gods) proclaimed their hope that crypto would enter mainstream finance. Remember our article’s title? When we talk about price, we’re actually talking about the future . The market’s resurgence requires a new narrative to drive returns; personally, I believe it’s a “complete integration of Crypto x Traditional Finance.”

2.2 From a sector perspective: High interest, low price – this is a typical “validation period”. RWA, AI, stablecoins, L1 (which lasted less than a month), prediction markets, perpetual contracts, on-chain asset management, DAT… each of these terms could ignite a short-term surge in sentiment. Sentiment aside, prices failed to rise. The short-term euphoria gave way to a longer-term secondary market stagnation.

📒 RWA in 2025: The underlying infrastructure is complete, and the regulatory framework is beginning to take shape, providing the “landing” conditions for the future development of RWAFi.

Let me rave about Plume’s contribution to making RWA more feasible. I’m using Plume as an example not because I invested in it, and especially since its recent secondary market performance has been rather lackluster. However, I firmly believe that Plume best represents the kind of “infrastructure moment” that has occurred in RWA this year.

First, Plume allows real-world assets to:

To compliantly enter the on-chain revenue system, It involves ordinary users (not just institutions). Enable on-chain distribution (in collaboration with traditional financial brokers) It has been DeFiified, is composable, and is liquid. Here are a few examples of progress made in the last two months: Securitize’s assets have been introduced into the on-chain yield system; Apollo, VanEck, and BlackRock products can be used by on-chain strategies; Bluprynt’s KYI brings “issuer transparency” to the chain; and it has become a registered transfer agent with the U.S. SEC, connecting to the regulatory-level interface of the SEC/DTCC.

These things sound tedious, and users might not know how to handle secondary FOMO. But essentially, you only need one sentence:

As the world’s first RWA Fi public chain, Plume has essentially leveled the mountains in front of RWA and paved the way for RWA to be implemented.

Because of teams like Plume building the framework for RWA in 2025, more excellent assets under the RWA-Fi system will have the opportunity to truly run in 2026.

III. AI × Crypto: The truly valuable part is not much, but the value density is extremely high. To be frank, and I’m afraid of offending anyone, the AI field may seem exciting, but there’s actually very little of real value in it.

3.1 Too many false propositions Taking the grand narrative of LLM, which has caused the most FOMO in the market, as an example, I believe that traditional AI’s large language models have matured to the point that “Crypto simply can’t handle them.”

ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and DeepSeek—these models are backed by massive global capital investments, amounting to billions of dollars in computing power, data, distributed training systems, and engineering teams.

Web3 wants to “rebuild an LLM”? It’s not that the dream is impossible, it’s that physical laws forbid it. And what traditional AI language models can’t satisfy you now? Web3 doesn’t need to reinvent the wheel. I suggest this type of project stop burning money on technology and quickly find real-world needs as a way out. After all, 2025 will have another significant characteristic: users won’t be so easily fooled. 😁

Hopefully, this example will help everyone understand why most AI projects in 2025 tend to “become vague and unsubstantiated as they are explained.”

3.2 Building the foundation for composite innovation to meet the needs of Web2 and Web3 financial markets

The first direction: Building a “value incentive and collaboration structure” for AI

Sahara AI aims to build upon on-chain incentive mechanisms, a globally settleable economic system, and a traceable contribution network—all features absent in traditional AI. After all, models, data, computing power, and agents all require incentives, collaboration, and allocation. This is the problem Sahara AI seeks to solve.

The second direction: the economic and execution systems of agents ⚠️ The strongest intersection of Web3 and AI.

The focus remains on addressing the limitations of Web2 agent capabilities to better meet the needs of scenarios requiring automated decision-making, automated execution, automated transactions, and automated settlement.

In the Web2 world, the current bottleneck for agents lies in:

Unable to make payments independently Unable to manage assets Cannot be called across systems Tasks cannot be performed without permission. Unable to transparently track behavior In the Crypto world, these are all native capabilities:

財布 Smart Contracts DeFi Strategy On-chain identity Stablecoin settlement This is the direction most Web3 AI projects are currently building: constructing the underlying “execution system” for the future Agent era. And starting with execution related to financial scenarios is clearly the most urgent and largest market demand.

3.3 The third direction: AI payment – the biggest disruptive force in the world over the next five years

If I had to summarize the super trend of the next five years in one sentence, it would be the revolution in payment methods driven by AI agents. When agents begin to execute all the instructions from the user to the application terminal—such as selecting items, placing orders, asset allocation, and strategy management—payment will no longer be the end point of the user’s actions, but rather the “underlying capability” of the intelligent agent.

In such a world, security, verifiability, global availability, extremely low cost, instant settlement, and 24/7 programmable cash flow would be essential prerequisites for AI Agents.

Traditional payment systems can’t do this. But AI, combined with stablecoins and on-chain identity systems, makes it all possible. In the future, you’ll see more and more AI applications enabling agents…

Automatically call stablecoin Create multi-signature Setting up hosting and policies Managing on-chain identity Seamlessly integrate with value delivery as if calling an API.

Even giants like PayPal, which have been operating in traditional payments for decades, are accelerating their expansion, investing in next-generation projects with “AI-native payment capabilities,” such as Kite AI. Many might say: Kite hasn’t actually provided payment technology services to AI Agents on a large scale yet, so is it just empty talk?

Let’s return to the title again, “When we talk about prices, we’re actually talking about the future.” The real question isn’t “How many agents does it serve today?”, but rather, in the context of an AI-driven future economy:

Who is already building the foundational capabilities needed for the future? Who is laying the groundwork for the value network of the AI era?

Just like after Coinbase released its 402 protocol, dozens of “new cryptography projects” emerged within days. Inferior coins prematurely exhaust market expectations because discussions about price represent people’s own vision of the future. The industry’s efficient token issuance, the boom in cryptocurrencies fueled by MEME and low-quality altcoins, also makes it more difficult for entrepreneurs to succeed. However, good projects are always scarce in the market, and in this respect, raising the barrier to entry for startups may not be a bad thing.

IV. Stablecoins: The most promising sector in 2025, yet the one most worthy of all-in investment.

Frankly, if there’s one sector that will be “quietly but デフィnitely worth paying attention to” in 2025, it’s stablecoins.

I believe it’s still in the early stages of the narrative, and the market hasn’t understood it at all. Most of the stablecoin-related projects that have emerged in the last 25 years are neither stable nor have any real applications. I personally think the market hasn’t entered the true FOMO stage yet.

4.1 The most eye-catching stablecoin event this year: It’s… the Trump family issuing a coin. Yes, the Trump family has openly launched a stablecoin: World Liberty / World Finance. The less information, the bigger the story.

4.2 The real-world demand for stablecoins is quietly accelerating in 2025. ① Government bond reserves become mainstream → Compliance accelerates
All leading stablecoin issuers are generally moving towards greater transparency and compliance in their reserves.

② On-chain payments have been “forced to upgrade”.
Please refer to the AI payment content in the previous section.

On-chain payments are an infrastructure driven by the demand from the development trend of AIAgents. Please note that this market is not limited to the Web3 market. As I mentioned before, the future trend market will definitely be a larger market that integrates Web2 and Web3.

However, once on-chain payments mature, the ceiling for stablecoins will be directly broken.

③ Stablecoins exhibit “structural stratification” for the first time.
Previously, stablecoins seemed to have only one logic: “Is it USDT or USDC?”

However, structural stratification emerged starting in 2025:

Centralized stablecoins (USDT, USDC) → Policy/Institutional Scenarios 交換-traded stablecoin (FDUSD) → In-exchange trading and initial coin offerings (ICOs) On-chain native stablecoins (DAI, USDL, etc.) → DeFi scenarios RWA stablecoin → Financial institutions and on-chain settlement Payment-type stablecoins → AI Agents, cross-border e-commerce scenarios 4.3 Amidst the hype surrounding stablecoins, the vast majority are “junk projects jumping on the bandwagon and desperately trying to cash out.” Whenever a new investment sector begins to gain recognition, a bunch of “pseudo-theme projects” emerge. Teams, naively believing they’ve come up with a brilliant scenario for issuing stablecoins, mass-produce shells on the market. They all involve some TVL (Total Value Limit) subsidies and packaging a supposedly profitable scenario, which is essentially token overdraft. Since users enjoy it, they simply replicate the BTCFi model with TVL, repackage it, and list it on exchanges, regardless of the potential future mess.

It’s true that users will experience FOMO in the short term, and it’s also true that they will be disappointed with the entire stablecoin sector in the medium term because of these “pseudo” stablecoin projects. However, in the long term, true giants are rising here, and it’s also true that the secondary value of stablecoins is currently severely undervalued.

The core value of stablecoins lies in only two things: stability and utility. If you can’t even achieve “real reserves + consensus-based use cases,” then publishing countless white papers is meaningless. I suspect some will point out that USDT’s reserves aren’t 1:1. Sorry, but USDT’s consensus-based use cases are something even the Trump family can’t surpass. To put it bluntly, the essence of currency is that everyone believes it’s stable, and that’s how it becomes stable. USDT’s core strength lies in its first-mover advantage, which brought early market consensus, and its years of experience in maintaining stability. I firmly believe that this inherent advantage cannot be achieved by a project simply using a so-called story to acquire an unstable asset and then trying to overtake others.

4.4 The surge in stablecoins is larger, more stable, and longer-lasting than anyone imagined; the stablecoin sector will develop in a structural manner. Policy recognition and strategic planning of governments around the world Financial institutions enter the market AI Agents represent various payment scenarios, including the growth of cross-border payments and L2-level everyday payments. Understanding the lowest cost for new users to deposit Crypto; CEX reserves; OTC fiat currency demand. RWA Mass Liquidation Crypto ✖️ The medium for the complete integration of traditional finance I would tentatively define stablecoins as the “underlying fuel” for all future sectors.

Many other sectors are performing well in 2025, as long as they focus on more efficient or diverse forms of financial investment. The gambling instinct is human nature, and the investment sectors are eternal. It’s all about the experience. I won’t elaborate further.

Fifth, when we talk about prices, we are actually talking about the future. How can we use the “next 5 years” perspective to deduce current opportunities? By now, you probably already sense something:

If you agree with my view that the most important theme for the next 5 years is the “complete integration of Crypto x Traditional Finance,” then during a bear market, you should shift your focus from secondary market prices to considering and pricing industry-wide value opportunities. Just like MATIC (later renamed Polygon), one of the earliest L2-listed stocks, which initially traded below its IPO price, eventually falling to 9 yuan for SOL. In a bear market, we should be anxious about price fluctuations but ecstatic about future value opportunities.

From a market perspective, what does price determine? It determines sentiment; it determines the fluctuations in expectations; it determines the popularity of a narrative.

But I believe the real value opportunities right now are being defined by: who is laying the foundation for the next five years; who is building financial infrastructure that serves both Web2 and Web3; and who is embedding themselves into the financial system of a future world with converged liquidity, instead of just indulging in self-congratulatory activities on the blockchain.

So, if you agree with the logic I just explained,

Then there’s a very direct question:

👀 So how should we view the current prices?

5.1 First, clarify an underlying logic: In the next 5 years, the vast majority of unicorns will not be “pure Crypto Native giants”.

“Pure Crypto Native Innovation” refers to on-chain, extreme innovation carried out against the backdrop of a market lacking integration with traditional financial markets; it’s also a product of an economy driven by the fact that the foundation for blockchain or Web3 infrastructure has not yet been built. And in the nearly 10-year history of blockchain, we’ve experienced countless highs and lows:

native public chain Native DeFi Lego Native NFT & Game Narrative Native DEX, Derivatives, Lending Protocols The giants of the previous round (exchanges, public chains, leading DeFi protocols) have basically occupied the high ground of “on-chain native infrastructure”.

Most “pure on-chain” products are either minor innovations, reskinned versions, or designed to circumvent regulations.

“There are more and more new projects, but fewer and fewer things that are truly meaningful.”

Because true innovation at the next level must meet three conditions:

It can connect to both Web2 and Web3. Can be used by real-world users, organizations, and funds. It should be able to be integrated into the real-world financial system, rather than just circulating within the cryptocurrency sphere. in other words:

Who can truly connect Crypto to “real-world money flows” and the “real financial system”?

Who will be eligible for the biggest valuation premium in the next round?

5.2 Analyzing the three main themes for the next 5 years to determine which sectors are “worth monitoring” now.

Main Theme 1: RWA-Fi → Transforming real-world assets into on-chain composable means of production → Inclusive and globalization of excellent real-return assets A large number of high-quality assets with annualized returns of over 10% have not flowed into Crypto, creating a near-vacuum. These assets often have high barriers to entry, limiting participation to institutions, large investors, and those with connections or nepotism. IPOs in US and Hong Kong True synergy between cryptocurrencies and stocks, rather than being limited to pure DAT fund financing and investment logic. Main Theme Two: AI Agents Flourish in 2026 – A True Era-Level Turning Point Traditional AI companies pushed the “big language model war” to its limits between 2023 and 2025. The era of models has ended; the era of agents has begun. For Crypto, the future breakthrough lies in making agents economical, executable, and trustworthy.

AIAgent’s “large-scale deployment period,” especially the formal surge in financial scenarios. Web3 will play a crucial role in the deployment of agents: the economic system will become a red ocean. Agent incentive system On-chain collaboration system Agent Task 市場場所 On-chain economic model (revenue, payment, custody) Highly efficient and reliable AI-powered stablecoin payments will connect every Agent Task. Main Theme 3: Stablecoins & New Settlement Layer (Easy to Understand, Most Difficult to Implement) In conclusion, let’s revisit the core arguments of the article: ✍️When we talk about prices, we are actually talking about the future.

If you only focus on the price, the future will definitely slip away from you.

✍️A bull market is all noise; a bear market is a magnifying glass, a microscope, and a mirror to reveal the truth.

✍️The bubble of 2025 is not a bad thing; it is the “fracture period” before the industry truly grows.

The more thoroughly the bubble bursts, the clearer the future becomes.

✍️Innovation in pure Crypto Native has reached its limit.

✍️The latest narrative direction for the industry in the next 5 years: “The complete integration of Crypto and traditional finance”

✍️RWA-Fi, AI payments, and stablecoins are the three main themes for the next 5 years. They’re not just hot topics, they’re the foundation. RWA, AI, and stablecoins are all accelerating the integration of cryptocurrencies with traditional finance. RWA bridges the gap between the infrastructure and assets, AI addresses practical efficiency and implementation, and stablecoins are the underlying fuel for all innovation.

✍️Crypto is transforming from a “single-player game” into a “plugin to the real-world financial system.” Those that can connect to real-world finance will be the long-term winners.

✍️ In the AI era, what truly matters is not the model, but the execution:

Payment, settlement, custody, identity, automation policies.

Whoever provides the execution capability for the agent, and whose AI agent is most appealing to users, will dominate the future.

✍️All short-term surges are driven by expectations; all long-term rises are driven by structure; price is a lagging indicator, while structure is a leading indicator.

✍️If you don’t understand 2025, you will miss the whole article about 2026.

❤️❤️❤️ Last but not least, a few thoughts from Jiayi❤️❤️❤️ Thank you 2025, this period that has left people feeling lost, confused, and constantly doubting themselves.

It was this “unpleasant feeling” that forced me to pull my focus away from my emotions and re-understand the structural changes happening behind the industry, to see clearly what is real value and what is just noise.

Thank you to the warriors who still chose to build during this cycle.

Your explorations and strategic planning during the industry’s most ambiguous period will be the true starting point for the “negation of negation” in the future—I believe you are the group that everyone will look back on in the next five years.

I also thank myself and the team that fought alongside me and was tormented by me every day.

We appreciate that over the years we have maintained our curiosity about the industry, our respect for trends, and our uncompromising approach to understanding.

Do only what you believe in, and only support those you approve of.

We will not cater to short-term market sentiment, nor will we betray the long-term structural logic.

The future will continue to be volatile, but our understanding will never decline.

この記事はインターネットから得たものです。 Only when the tide recedes can we see the future.Recommended Articles

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