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Will there still be a copycat season in 2024? | Bee Network

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Will there still be a copycat season in 2024? | Bee Network Login トレンドニュース ミーム・ローンチパッド AIエージェント デサイ トップチェーンエクスプローラー 初心者向け 100x コイン ビーゲーム 重要なウェブサイト 必須のアプリ クリプトセレブリティ デピン ルーキーズ・エッセンシャル トラップディテクタ 基本的なツール 高度な Web サイト 交換 NFTツール こんにちは、 サインアウト Web3 ユニバース ゲーム ダップ ミツバチの巣 成長するプラットフォーム 広告 検索 英語 コインをリチャージする ログイン ダウンロード Web3 ユニ ゲーム ダップ ミツバチの巣 広告 ホーム-分析-2024年も模倣シーズンは続くのでしょうか？ 2024年も模倣シーズンは続くのでしょうか？分析2年前 (2024)更新ワイアット 35,9651 2 原作者: 翻訳者

Original translation: Vernacular blockchain

The altcoin market has experienced significant volatility this year, leaving many investors treading on thin ice.

However, with the US election and interest rate cuts approaching, the market may be in for major changes.

Here is a summary of the 2024 Altcoin Outlook Report:

1. There is no altcoin season Many are disappointed that there has not yet been an altcoin season in this cycle.

Altcoins have been underperforming since November 2022, as shown by TOTA L3/BTC.

The ratio of the top 125 cryptocurrencies (excluding BTC/ETH) to BTC has dropped from 1.05 to 0.49.

2. Market breadth is a concern The market is currently highly concentrated and dominated by a few large-cap coins.

Only 13% of the top assets outperformed BTC.

Picking outperforming altcoins is as difficult as finding a needle in a haystack.

3. Key events that affect the market Here are four key events that have impacted the performance of altcoins versus Bitcoin this year:

Spot Bitcoin ETF Debuts

Bitcoin Halving

Spot Ethereum ETF debuts

Ripple Partially Wins Lawsuit Against SEC

4. The end of the “altcoin season” The launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF is the most critical event.

While bullish for Bitcoin, this breaks the traditional “path of altcoin season”.

The brief altcoin rally was followed by a sharp drop.

The trickle-down effect of Bitcoin is seriously overestimated.

5. Macro uncertainty Recent macroeconomic changes have significantly increased market uncertainty.

Rising unemployment, high interest rates and the yen carry trade are all important factors.

In this risk-averse environment, altcoins, which reflect consumer confidence, have performed poorly.

6. Trump Deal Another important factor is the Trump deal.

It reflects market expectations about the possibility of a second Trump presidency, with a focus on pro-growth policies.

Small-cap stocks surged after Trumps 2016 victory, outperforming large-cap stocks by nearly 8%.

Trump Deal in 2024

With so many events this year, it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly how Trump’s trades will affect the market.

However, we can evaluate this by comparing the Polymarket predicted odds with the market index.

For example, the TOTA L3/BTC index shows little correlation with Trump’s odds.

7. When will the money printing begin? A key indicator is the global M2 money supply, which suggests prices may eventually rise.

An increase in M2 typically boosts market liquidity and asset prices, including cryptocurrencies.

8. Unemployment and recession concerns As the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, Sahms rule signals the possibility of a recession.

In this environment, investors tend to move to safer assets, which can have a negative impact on altcoins.

Note: Trading based on macro data is difficult due to the forward-looking nature of the market.

9. Where to go next? By the end of the year, if rate cuts stabilize the economy, Bitcoin’s market dominance could decline.

However, if recession fears intensify, Bitcoin’s market dominance could remain elevated.

In either case, expect differentiation between altcoins to increase (with due diligence).

This article is sourced from the internet: Will there still be a copycat season in 2024?

Related: With Rollup at the center, the importance of Ethereum protocol upgrades is gradually decreasing Original author: Christine, Galaxy Research Original translation: Ismay, BlockBeats Editors Note: As Ethereum gradually shifts to a Rollup-centric development roadmap, the importance of its protocol changes is gradually diminishing. This article delves into the reasons for this shift and its potential impact on the ecosystem. By analyzing the changing priorities of Ethereum protocol developers, the author reveals that as Rollup matures, the direct impact of protocol-level changes on users will decrease. The article also quotes the views of Aya Miyaguchi, executive director of the Ethereum Foundation, emphasizing the risks and necessity of reducing the roles of protocols and foundations. At the same time, this article points out that the core building blocks of future finance are being built outside of the protocol, and Rollup and other innovative technologies will gradually…

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