温馨提示：本站仅提供公开网络链接索引服务，不存储、不篡改任何第三方内容，所有内容版权归原作者所有
AI智能索引来源：http://www.bee.com/hi/56383.html
点击访问原文链接

Take Profit or Open a Position: How to Observe Recent Market Changes from a Macro Perspective in Plain LanguageRecommend | Bee Network

进入原网站 导航首页
Take Profit or Open a Position: How to Observe Recent Market Changes from a Macro Perspective in Plain LanguageRecommend | Bee Network Login ट्रेंडिंग न्यूज़ मीम लॉन्चपैड एआई एजेंट डेस्सी टॉपचेनएक्सप्लोरर न्यूबी के लिए 100x सिक्के मधुमक्खी खेल आवश्यक वेबसाइटें एपीपी अवश्य होना चाहिए क्रिप्टो हस्तियाँ डेपिन नौसिखिया आवश्यक ट्रैप डिटेक्टर बुनियादी उपकरण उन्नत वेबसाइटें एक्सचेंजों एनएफटी उपकरण नमस्ते, साइन आउट वेब3 यूनिवर्स खेल डीऐप मधुमुखी का छत्ता बढ़ता हुआ मंच विज्ञापन खोज अंग्रेज़ी रिचार्ज सिक्के लॉग इन करें डाउनलोड करना वेब3 यूनी खेल डीऐप मधुमुखी का छत्ता विज्ञापन घर•विश्लेषण•Take Profit or Open a Position: How to Observe Recent Market Changes from a Macro Perspective in Plain LanguageRecommend Take Profit or Open a Position: How to Observe Recent Market Changes from a Macro Perspective in Plain LanguageRecommendविश्लेषण6 महीने पहलेहाँव्याट 23,374 22 The market seems to have recently entered an unpredictable phase. Blue-chip क्रिप्टोcurrencies remain volatile at high levels, with their overall direction uncertain. The altcoin market has not yet experienced the anticipated full-scale bull run, while DAT assets or crypto-to-equity stocks have dominated the traditional financial markets. Prior to this, many voices on social media have characterized this bull market as driven by traditional capital. I strongly agree with this assessment, and this sector of capital exhibits several distinct characteristics compared to previous market cycles, such as a strong influence on macroeconomic factors, lower risk appetite, greater concentration of capital, weaker wealth spillovers, and less pronounced sector rotation. Therefore, during this period of significant macroeconomic changes, re-examining these developments will help us make informed decisions. Overall, I believe that as Powell adjusts the Fed’s decision-making logic, the performance of the US job market will, in the short term, determine market confidence in the September rate cut, thereby influencing the prices of risky assets.

What did Powell’s speech change?
We know that in the months leading up to this, the core market debate surrounding the macroeconomic situation has been whether the Federal Reserve under Powell’s leadership can deliver on the Trump administration’s desire to significantly cut interest rates this year. First, why is the Trump administration so eager to pressure the Fed to cut rates, even risking the Fed’s independence and, by extension, the dollar’s credibility, by using administrative power to influence the Fed’s decisions? In previous articles, we’ve analyzed the Trump administration’s goal of “reshoreing manufacturing” in US economic policy, but how this goal has encountered two obstacles in its implementation:

Internal costs are too high to cope with competition from international competitors; Government debt is too high, and there is no sufficient budget to encourage industrial relocation; Over the past six months of the Trump administration, its policy implementation can be roughly divided into two steps. First, upon its election, it fulfilled its campaign promises as much as possible to strengthen its authority, such as granting DOGE extensive rights and shifting cryptocurrency policy. After consolidating its base, the Trump administration began implementing drastic tariff measures. The reason for this post-solidification push is that raising tariffs would raise market concerns about imported inflation, thereby increasing internal resistance. Having secured strong authority, and after months of negotiations, Trump’s tariff policy framework has been initially established and is showing results. According to US Treasury Secretary Benson, as of August 22nd, tariffs have generated a nearly $100 billion fiscal surplus for the United States over the past six months, with an expected $300 billion surplus this year. Furthermore, the administration has secured investment promises from numerous countries, including $550 billion from Japan and $600 billion and $750 billion in energy orders from the European Union.

It can be said that although internal costs cannot be reduced immediately in a short period of time, such as labor costs and logistics costs, because these costs require the United States to reset the costs of various factors through a market clearing like a great depression, the Trump administration has changed the domestic market competition structure and capital structure to a certain extent through tariffs. Therefore, the time is right to start the next policy layout, that is, the FED interest rate cut.

So what can a rate cut change? There are two main points. First, it will ease debt pressure. As we know, during the tenure of previous Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the US Treasury increased its issuance of short-term debt, a decision Bensent maintained. The advantage of this approach is that short-term debt interest rates are regulated by the Federal Reserve, reducing the drag of long-term debt on the fiscal budget. Currently, market demand for short-term US Treasury bonds is strong, which helps lower financing costs. However, the obvious downside is that shortening debt duration increases short-term repayment pressure, which is why recent negotiations on the debt ceiling have become more intense. Rate cuts, on the other hand, mean less pressure on short-term debt payments. Second, rate cuts will reduce financing costs for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), facilitating the development of industrial chains. Compared to large enterprises, SMEs typically rely more heavily on bank debt financing for their operations. Therefore, in a high-interest environment, SMEs’ willingness to expand financing will be dampened. Furthermore, after tariffs have altered the competitive structure of the domestic market, it is imperative to incentivize SMEs to expand production and help them quickly fill supply gaps in the market to prevent inflation. Therefore, to sum up, the Trump administration will spare no effort to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at this time, rather than just using smokescreens.

Whether it’s actively intervening in the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters or relentlessly attacking the far-left, progressive, and hawkish Governor Cook, these measures demonstrate the Trump administration’s active promotion. These tactics appeared to be working effectively in Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, the annual gathering of global central banks, last week. The market was most surprised by Powell’s speech, which consistently defends the independence of the Federal Reserve, but he seemed to succumb to Trump’s strong pressure. Several key points in his speech highlight his stance:

1. It is clear that the risks in the US economy have shifted from inflation to the job market;

2. The impact of tariffs on inflation takes time to manifest and is not a factor that triggers an inflationary spiral;

3. An update to the monetary policy framework, which interestingly reduces the emphasis on the effective lower bound on interest rates as a “characteristic of normal economic conditions.”

In layman’s terms, the Federal Reserve is no longer concerned about inflation caused by tariffs, but is now more concerned about the collapse of the job market caused by an economic recession. At the same time, the level of interest rate cuts can be considered unlimited. The description of the effective interest rate should be expanded upon. The so-called effective interest rate refers to the level at which, when a central bank uses conventional monetary policy (primarily adjusting short-term policy interest rates), further cuts will have no impact on the economy. This shift aligns with the core of Trump’s policies, as this “two-pronged approach” has sparked market expectations for further liquidity easing.

Impact on the cryptocurrency market

We know that the cryptocurrency market is often seen as a canary in the sand for speculative sentiment in the global risk asset market. Therefore, cryptocurrencies all saw a surge after the announcement of the speech. The subsequent pullback shows that the market had already priced in an interest rate cut this year to a certain extent. After the new trading logic was determined, the market shifted from the initial emotional expectations to rational expectations. Therefore, sufficient evidence is still needed to assess the extent of the interest rate cut.

As for how deep the pullback will be, I believe the performance of ETH, which has been the hottest cryptocurrency of the recent period, is worth watching. As long as the price doesn’t fall below this rising channel in the short term, I believe investor sentiment hasn’t significantly reversed, and therefore the risk is manageable. Over the coming week, indicators related to the job market will significantly influence cryptocurrency trends, particularly next Friday’s non-farm payroll data, which will bring significant market volatility. If the employment data falls short of expectations, the probability of a September Fed rate cut will increase significantly. If it exceeds expectations, it will demonstrate the resilience of the US job market, and pressure for rate cuts will be felt, potentially leading to a further market correction. Regardless, the recent policy market situation reminds me of the CPI-dominated market in 2023.

यह लेख इंटरनेट से लिया गया है: Take Profit or Open a Position: How to Observe Recent Market Changes from a Macro Perspective in Plain LanguageRecommended Articles

Related: The platform currency war 4 years ago is still fresh in our memory. Is the 10x opportunity still there now?Recommended A Only those who dare to burn money have the opportunity to print new money. This afternoon, OKX announced a massive, one-time burn of 65.25 million OKB tokens, worth hundreds of millions of dollars at current prices. Following the announcement, OKB’s price surged, increasing by over 100% in a short period of time, instantly becoming a focal point amidst the relatively sluggish market. This volatility struck many investors as familiar. The market’s thoughts quickly returned to the sensational “platform coin destruction war” four years ago—in 2021. Back then, exchanges used real money to buy back and destroy their own platform coins. This not only reduced market circulation and created scarcity, but also signaled profitability and business growth. It was a silent, yet intense, arms race: repeated destruction announcements drove coin prices…

# विश्लेषण# क्रिप्टो# मार्केट© 版权声明सरणी 上一篇 Web 3 Leveraged Trading: A Guide to the Next 100 Billion Dollar MarketRecommended Articles 下一篇 On-chain data reveals the mystery: what is the initial circulation rate of WLFI?Recommended Articles 相关文章 Five major organizations outline a new blueprint for encryption in 2026: Is an encrypted “super app” on the horizon? Is the “four-year cycle” coming to an end? 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 15,425 2 Government Shutdown, White House Demolition: Trump’s $300 Million “Private Banquet Hall” and Its Crypto Backers 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 15,848 गर्मCrypto Arena: Survival Game of AI Agents and Financial Evolution 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 17,827 XPL public sale was snapped up by big investors, why did Plasma become the new favorite in the market? 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 24,852 7 Cryptos New Order: From the Wild West to the Wall Street Siege 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 34,299 3 What to watch next week | The deadline for tariff negotiations is approaching; the House of Representatives is expected 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 25,250 2 कोई टिप्पणी नहीं टिप्पणी करने के लिए आपको लॉगिन होना होगा! तुरंत लॉगइन करें कोई टिप्पणी नहीं... नवीनतम लेख UniSat Releases Phase Updates and Upgrades, Continuously Building the Bitcoin Ecosystem 1 वर्ष पूर्व 1,514 Jack Dorsey’s Company: 4,000 White-Collar Workers Are Being Replaced by AI 1 वर्ष पूर्व 1,411 Latest Stablecoin Report: Real Distribution and Flow Are Far More Important Than Supply 1 वर्ष पूर्व 1,326 Sui DeFi’s “Three-Engine” Revolution: How New Capabilities, New Assets, and New Programs Are Building the Future of On-Chain Finance? 1 वर्ष पूर्व 1,275 On-chain Investigator ZachXBT Confirms: Axiom Employees Exploited Internal Privileges for Insider Trading 1 वर्ष पूर्व 1,141 लोकप्रिय वेबसाइटेंTempoLighterजीएआईबीग्लाइडरप्लांकरेल्सबीसीपोकरवूई Bee.com दुनिया का सबसे बड़ा Web3 पोर्टल भागीदारों कॉइनकार्प बिनेंस कॉइनमार्केटकैप कॉइनगेको कॉइनलाइव कवच बी नेटवर्क ऐप डाउनलोड करें और वेब3 यात्रा शुरू करें सफेद कागज भूमिकाएँ सामान्य प्रश्न © 2021-2026. सर्वाधिकार सुरक्षित।. गोपनीयता नीति | सेवाओं की शर्तें बी नेटवर्क ऐप डाउनलोड करें और वेब3 यात्रा शुरू करें दुनिया का सबसे बड़ा Web3 पोर्टल भागीदारों CoinCarp Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive Armors सफेद कागज भूमिकाएँ सामान्य प्रश्न © 2021-2026. सर्वाधिकार सुरक्षित।. गोपनीयता नीति | सेवाओं की शर्तें खोज खोजइनसाइटऑनचेनसामाजिकसमाचार उत्तर: एयरड्रॉप शिकारी डेटा विश्लेषण क्रिप्टो हस्तियाँ ट्रैप डिटेक्टर हिन्दी English 繁體中文 简体中文 日本語 Tiếng Việt العربية 한국어 Bahasa Indonesia اردو Русский हिन्दी

智能索引记录