Coinbase Panorama Report: The Current Status, Risks, and Valuation of the Leading US Compliant ExchangeRecommended Artic | Bee Network
Summary of business and product lines
Coinbase’s business has expanded from a single exchange to a multi-faceted platform driven by trading, custody, staking, and stablecoins. This diversification not only reduces over-reliance on transaction fees (non-transactional revenue will account for 40% in 2024) but also strengthens customer stickiness (users keep their assets on the platform to earn staking interest and use stablecoins, reducing their willingness to migrate elsewhere). Synergies are created across these businesses: trading generates asset retention, which in turn generates staking and interest income, which in turn encourages users to trade more. This “flywheel effect” is one of the moats Coinbase strives to build. However, the company also needs to balance regulatory considerations and resource investment to ensure the compliance and sustainability of each business. For example, staking and lending must comply with securities laws, and stablecoin reserves must be transparent. Overall, Coinbase’s product portfolio is comprehensive, and it is the first in the industry to establish the prototype of a comprehensive crypto-financial services platform, providing it with a relatively stable revenue structure and growth path amidst fierce competition. 5. Management and Governance In terms of company management, we focus on several dimensions: 1. The background of senior executives and the stability of core members; 2. The level of past strategic decision-making. 5.1 Background of the Core Management Team Brian Armstrong – Co-founder, Chief Executive Officer (CEO), and Chairman of the Board, holding a majority voting stake. Born in 1983, he previously worked as a software engineer at Airbnb. He founded Coinbase in 2012 and is one of the earliest entrepreneurs in the crypto space. Armstrong focuses on long-term mission and product simplicity, and is known internally for his principled approach (e.g., the company’s 2020 statement on apolitical culture). Fred Ehrsam – Co-founder and Director. A former Goldman Sachs foreign exchange trader, he co-founded Coinbase with Armstrong in 2012 and served as its first president. He left day-to-day management in 2017 to found Paradigm, a prominent crypto investment fund, but has remained on the board, providing input on industry trends and company strategy. Alesia Haas – Chief Financial Officer (CFO). She joined Coinbase in 2018. Previously, she served as CFO of the hedge fund Och-Ziff (now Sculptor Capital) and a senior executive at OneWest Bank. She has extensive experience in traditional finance and capital markets. She led the company through its IPO financial preparations, emphasizing financial discipline and decisively implementing two rounds of layoffs in 2022 to control costs. Haas also leads Coinbase’s subsidiary, Coinbase Credit, exploring crypto lending. Emilie Choi – President and Chief Operating Officer (COO). She joined Coinbase in 2018 as Vice President of Business Development and was promoted to President and COO in 2020. Prior to joining Coinbase, she led mergers and acquisitions and investments at LinkedIn, including the acquisition of SlideShare, and was known for her strategic expansion. At Coinbase, Choi drove a series of acquisitions (Earn.com, Xapo Custody, Bison Trails, etc.) and international expansion, and is considered one of the most influential executives outside of Armstrong. She also oversees day-to-day operations management, talent, and strategic project execution. Paul Grewal – Chief Legal Officer (CLO). Joined in 2020, Grewal is a former deputy general counsel at Facebook and a former federal judge. Grewal is responsible for handling legal and regulatory matters for Coinbase, including its 2023 legal battle with the SEC. His team plays a key role in compliance and policy lobbying. Other key executives: The Chief Product Officer position was previously held by Surojit Chatterjee (a former Google executive), who led product development from 2020 to 2022 and departed in early 2023. The product team has since been divided among various department heads. Greg Tusar and others have held the Chief Technology Officer (CTO) position, which is now shared by senior engineering executives. Chief People Officer (CPO) LJ Brock oversees recruiting and culture development, playing a key role in the company’s cultural transformation. Also worth mentioning are Chief Marketing Officer Kate Rouch (former Facebook Marketing Director), who brings cross-disciplinary experience to Coinbase, hailing from both Silicon Valley tech and Wall Street. The overall management team profile: a young and entrepreneurial founder combined with professional managers from traditional financial and tech giants. This diverse team helps Coinbase achieve both technological innovation and regulatory compliance. Executives all hold significant equity or stock options, with Armstrong receiving a special CEO performance-based equity incentive plan, encouraging him to achieve the company’s market capitalization target within 10 years. 5.2 Personnel and Strategic Stability Coinbase has experienced ups and downs in personnel and strategy, but has generally remained consistent: Executive Turnover: Most of the core founding team remains with the company (Armstrong and Ehrsam serve on the board). However, some executives have departed in recent years: former Chief Product Officer Chatterjee, for example, left in early 2023; the Chief Technology Officer and Chief Compliance Officer positions have also undergone several changes. Some personnel turnover is related to market conditions: the 2022 bear market and declining performance led to management streamlining. After Armstrong announced his “no politics” policy in 2020, approximately 60 employees (including the former Chief Human Resources Officer) accepted layoffs. Despite this, the company’s overall senior management retention rate is high—the CEO, CFO, and COO have all been in their positions for many years and led the company to IPO, and the head of legal affairs is also stable. This indicates that the management team is relatively mature and key positions are not frequently shaken up. Strategic Coherence: Coinbase’s core mission (building a trusted crypto-financial system) has remained unchanged since its founding. While strategic priorities may adjust with industry evolution, the overall trajectory is relatively clear: early on, it focused on Bitcoin brokerage and expanding its user base; subsequently, it expanded into various currencies and international markets; and since 2020, it has clearly pursued a two-pronged approach—serving both retail and institutional investors, while also increasing subscription revenue to diversify its business model. Even during market downturns (such as 2018 and 2022), management persisted in investing in new products (such as the USDC stablecoin in 2018 and the NFT platform and derivatives portfolio in 2022), demonstrating confidence in the long-term trend of crypto. Of course, there have been corrections: for example, after NFT products flopped, the company reduced resources in 2023; and, due to reckless expansion, it was forced to lay off approximately 2,100 employees (approximately 35% of its workforce) twice in fiscal 2022. Management, having learned from these mistakes, has improved operational efficiency. Overall, Coinbase has strong strategic execution capabilities, has not experienced any disruptive shifts or major failures, and its decisions are generally consistent with industry developments. Strategic Consistency: Quantifying Coinbase’s strategic consistency, such as tracking its early investments in key technologies and markets, reveals that Coinbase has consistently positioned itself for most major industry trends: supporting Ethereum as early as 2015 (capitalizing on the smart contract trend), launching a stablecoin in 2018 (betting on the future of compliant stablecoins), applying for a futures license in 2021 (foresight into the derivatives market), and subsequently entering the market with proprietary L2 trading. These decisions have been highly consistent with subsequent industry developments, demonstrating strong management judgment. Of course, the company has also made mistakes, such as missing out on the booming DeFi decentralized trading market of 2019-2020 (failed to capitalize on the decentralized finance market, including DEXs, until its subsequent entry into the market through the development of Base). However, given Coinbase’s emphasis on compliance, this may have been a deliberate strategic trade-off. 5.3 Strategic Capability Review Key examples of management successes and failures in key decisions include: Strategic Success Stories: Early Compliance Planning – Coinbase prioritized compliance from the outset, proactively applying for US FinCEN registration and state licenses in 2013. This decision proved to be a wise one: by the time competitors were forced to exit the US market due to compliance issues, Coinbase had already established a regulatory moat and built deep trust with US users (Coinbase has never experienced a major theft of customer funds), expanding its market share in the US. Another success was its IPO timing – management capitalized on the 2021 bull market peak with a direct listing, providing the company with ample capital and brand recognition, while also rewarding early investors and employees and stabilizing team morale. Another example is its acquisition strategy – the 2019 acquisition of Xapo’s institutional custody business made Coinbase one of the world’s largest crypto custodians, seizing an early advantage in the institutional market. These achievements demonstrate management’s strategic vision and strong execution. · Strategic Mistake Example: Expansion Too Rapidly Leading to Layoffs – During the bull market of 2021, Coinbase’s employee size surged from approximately 1,700 to nearly 6,000 at the beginning of 2022 (currently around 3,700+), and many departments were overstaffed. Armstrong publicly admitted that being “overly optimistic” about staff expansion led to decreased efficiency. As the market cooled in 2022, the company had to carry out two large-scale layoffs, which took a toll on morale. Another setback was the poor performance of the new product NFT Marketplace – Coinbase invested resources to launch the NFT trading platform in April 2022, hoping to replicate OpenSea’s success. However, due to its late entry and lack of differentiation, coupled with the overall cooling of the NFT market, the platform’s monthly trading volume remained sluggish for a long time, and the company eventually almost gave up operations. Management’s attempts in some areas fell short of expectations, and there were deviations in market analysis, but the overall losses were limited and they were able to stop losses in time. Overall, Coinbase has good management, a relatively stable core team, and strategic decisions that align with industry trends. It hasn’t missed any major industry opportunities. Although there have been issues with out-of-control costs and some product exploration failures, the merits outweigh the flaws. 6. Operational and financial performance In this section, we will focus on Coinbase’s revenue, profit, costs, and assets and liabilities, and evaluate the company’s profitability and stability. 6.1 Overview of Profit and Loss Statement (5 Years) Coinbase’s revenue and profit performance are highly dependent on the crypto market, showing a “roller coaster”-like fluctuation: Revenue: Total revenue was only $534 million in 2019. In 2020, driven by Bitcoin’s mini-bull run, it increased to $1.28 billion (+140%). With the full-blown bull market in 2021, revenue soared to $7.84 billion (+513% year-on-year). Revenue plummeted to $3.15 billion (-60%) during the 2022 bear market, and fell further to $2.92 billion in 2023. In 2024, as the market rebounded, revenue rebounded strongly to $6.564 billion, doubling from 2023. In the first quarter of 2025, Coinbase continued its strong momentum from late 2024, achieving total revenue of approximately $2.03 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase. Revenue declined again in the second quarter of 2025, reaching approximately $1.5 billion, a sharp 26% drop from the $2.03 billion in Q1 2025. This is primarily due to a 16% drop in crypto market volatility in the second quarter, and a decline in trading volume due to weakened investor appetite. Coinbase’s revenue remains highly dependent on market fluctuations, subject to significant short-term volatility. However, the company’s total revenue in the first half of the year still grew by approximately 14% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the company’s revenue has experienced a roller-coaster ride over the past five years, demonstrating significant cyclical resilience: From 2019 to 2024, revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 40%, but annual fluctuations can reach over ±50%. Bull market surges and bear market halvings are expected to continue into the first half of 2025.Coinbase revenue (TTM) trends, September 2020-June 2025, Source: seekingalpha
Coinbase annual revenue (including forecasts), 2020-2026. Source: seekingalpha
Revenue Structure: Transaction fees have always been the primary source of revenue, but their proportion has gradually declined. In 2021, transaction revenue reached 6.9 billion, accounting for approximately 87%. This figure dropped to 2.4 billion in 2022, representing 77%. In 2023, transaction revenue reached only 1.5 billion, representing 52%. In 2024, transaction revenue rebounded to approximately 4 billion, representing approximately 61%. Correspondingly, subscription and service revenue (staking, interest, custody, etc.) increased from less than 5% in 2019 to 48% in 2023, before declining slightly to approximately 35% in 2024 (totaling 2.3 billion). In the first quarter of 2025, transaction fee revenue reached approximately 1.26 billion (up 17.3% year-on-year), accounting for over 60% of quarterly revenue. Subscription and service revenue reached 698 million (up 37% year-on-year), contributing over 30% of revenue, primarily driven by rising interest income from the USDC stablecoin and user growth for the subscription product, Coinbase One. In the second quarter of 2025, trading revenue and subscription revenue saw a shift in direction: Trading fee revenue for the quarter was approximately 764.3 million yuan, accounting for approximately 54% of total revenue; subscription and services revenue reached 655.8 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, rising to approximately 46% of the total, almost matching the size of trading revenue. Subscription growth was primarily driven by USDC interest and custody services. In the second quarter, average USDC reserve balances increased by 13% quarter-over-quarter to $13.8 billion, contributing significant stablecoin interest income. Meanwhile, staking and institutional custody fees saw steady growth, and Coinbase’s subscription revenue continued to reach record highs. In the first half of 2025, subscription/services revenue accounted for approximately 44% of the company’s total revenue, a significant increase from 35% for the full year of 2024, further solidifying Coinbase’s diversification. This shift in revenue structure reduces the company’s reliance on trading fees, helping to mitigate the impact of market volatility on revenue. Profit: Coinbase, benefiting from its high-gross-margin business model, is highly profitable when trading volume is high. In 2019, it reported a loss of 30 million yuan. In 2020, it achieved a net profit of 322 million yuan (with a 25% net profit margin). In 2021, net profit climbed to 3.624 billion yuan (with a net profit margin of approximately 46%), exceeding the combined profit of all previous years. In 2022, it suffered a massive loss of 2.625 billion yuan (with a net profit margin of -83%), its worst year on record. In 2023, it reported a slight profit of 95 million yuan (with a net profit margin of 3%), returning to profitability. In 2024, net profit reached 2.579 billion yuan (with a net profit margin of approximately 39%), second only to its peak in 2021. This shows that Coinbase’s profits and losses fluctuate significantly in tandem with its revenue. Net profit in the first quarter of 2025 was $66 million, seemingly a significant decline compared to the previous quarter. However, this was primarily due to the decline in the fair value of crypto assets, equity incentives, and litigation expenses in the first quarter. Excluding after-tax fair value gains and losses on crypto asset investments and other one-time items, adjusted net profit for the quarter was $527 million, more reflective of core operating results. In contrast, Coinbase’s profits saw a dramatic jump in the second quarter of 2025: GAAP net profit reached $1.429 billion, a year-on-year surge (compared to just $36 million in Q2 2024), with a net profit margin of approximately 95%. However, this exceptionally high profit was primarily due to non-recurring gains: the company recognized a $1.5 billion strategic investment gain from the revaluation of its stake in stablecoin issuer Circle, as well as a $362 million gain on its crypto asset portfolio. After deducting the aforementioned one-time gains, Q2’s adjusted net profit was only approximately ¥33 million (adjusted net profit requires adding back nearly $438 million in taxes and fees resulting from two non-recurring gains), significantly lower than the ¥527 million in Q1 2025, reflecting a significant weakening of the company’s core business profitability due to declining trading volume. Overall, Coinbase’s profits continue to fluctuate significantly with revenue: net profit can reach over 30% to 40% of revenue during booming markets, while losses can occur during downturns without strict cost control. However, after significant losses in 2022, the company was able to quickly return to break-even in 2023 through layoffs and cost reductions, demonstrating a degree of cost flexibility and operational resilience. Expense Structure: From a cost perspective, Coinbase’s costs are primarily comprised of operating expenses (R&D, sales, and general administration), with direct transaction costs being relatively small . Sales and marketing expenses typically account for less than 10%, and have been reduced to below 5% since 2022, reflecting a relatively restrained marketing investment. R&D and general administration expenses together account for approximately 20-30%, including significant equity incentive expenses: for example, a one-time share reform charge upon IPO in 2021, and continued annual equity expenditures (employee stock options) of approximately $300-500 million from 2022 to 2023. The expense ratio (operating expenses/revenue) significantly dilutes in bull markets (only approximately 22% in 2021) but soars in bear markets (reaching over 100% in 2022). In 2023, after layoffs and cost reductions, the expense ratio dropped back to 70%. Starting in 2024, the company will continue to strictly control expenses, aligning human resources and project investments with business needs. Notably, a major data breach occurred in Q2 2025, resulting in approximately $307 million in litigation and compensation expenses, causing total operating expenses for the quarter to surge 15% quarter-over-quarter to $1.52 billion. (Excluding this one-time item, core operating expenses actually maintained a downward trend.) Meanwhile, stock-based compensation (SBC) expenses remain a significant expense component and warrant continued monitoring. Annual SBC expenses are projected to be approximately $300 million to $500 million in 2022-2023. In Q2 2025 alone, SBC expenses reached $196 million, a slight increase of 3% from Q1. If this trend continues, annual SBC expenses could exceed $700 million. Overall, Coinbase’s fee structure is relatively flexible, allowing personnel and project expenditures to adjust with market conditions. However, the dilutive effect of stock-based compensation should be carefully considered. 6.2 Profitability and Efficiency (5 years) Coinbase’s earnings quality and operating efficiency are assessed using a combination of ratios: Gross profit margin: It has consistently remained high at 80-90%, reflecting the high profitability of its transaction fee-based business. For example, the gross profit margin was approximately 88% in 2021, 81% in 2022, and then rose to 84% in 2023 despite declining revenue (due to a high interest rate share in the revenue structure, with no corresponding costs). It reached 85% in 2024. In Q2 2025, despite a decline in trading volume, the gross profit margin remained approximately 83%. This demonstrates that regardless of market conditions, Coinbase converts a significant portion of every dollar of revenue into gross profit, leading its peers (compared to the 50-60% gross profit margins of traditional securities brokers). Net profit margin: volatile. In 2021, the net profit margin was 46%, comparable to the most profitable tech companies; in 2022, it was -83%, a significant loss; in 2023, it recovered to a positive 3%; and in 2024, it reached 39%. In Q2 2025, the adjusted net profit margin, excluding non-recurring items, was only approximately 2%. On average, Coinbase’s net profit margin is around 30-40% in normal/booming markets, providing strong profit leverage; however, it may incur losses in a downturn, requiring prompt cost reductions to recover losses. ROE/ROA: Due to profit fluctuations, return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) fluctuate significantly. In 2021, ROE exceeded 60% (due to high profits and limited net asset expansion from the IPO); in 2022, it fell to -40%; in 2023, ROE was less than 2%; and in 2024, ROE rose to approximately 25%. Regarding return on assets, ROA was approximately 20% in 2021 and approximately 15% in 2024, indicating a slight decline in efficiency following balance sheet expansion. Overall, Coinbase’s ROE in profitable years was significantly higher than that of traditional financial companies, but its stability was less pronounced. Per-person Efficiency: Due to significant fluctuations in employee headcount, we use revenue/employee to measure efficiency. During the 2021 bull market, due to a business boom, per-person annual revenue reached approximately $1.9 million per employee. This figure plummeted to below $500,000 per employee in 2022, and rebounded to the $800,000-$1 million per employee range in 2023 following layoffs. This still exceeds the per-person revenue levels of most traditional financial institutions, placing it in the upper-middle range and demonstrating the economies of scale of its digital platform model. We anticipate that with a reasonable headcount (currently approximately 3,700 employees), per-person revenue will stabilize at around $1 million in the future, and could exceed this level in the event of another super-bull market.Comparison of per capita revenue of trading financial institutions (2024)
6.3 Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure (5 Years) Coinbase’s operating cash flow is also cyclical, but generally remains positive: Operating Cash Flow: 2021 saw very strong OCF, with a full-year net operating cash inflow of approximately 10 billion yuan (due to the accumulation of deposits from a surge in client transactions), resulting in significantly positive free cash flow. In 2022, operating cash outflows of approximately 2 billion yuan were recorded, reflecting losses and changes in working capital. In 2023, operating cash flow returned to positive levels, reaching approximately 520 million yuan, driven by cost reductions and interest income. OCF surged in 2024, with reported full-year net operating cash inflows of 2.5 billion yuan, more than doubling year-over-year. This was driven in part by a return to profitability and growth in client funds. Cash Flow from Investing Activities: Coinbase is not an asset-heavy company, with relatively low capital expenditures (CapEx). Its primary investments are in acquisitions and platform R&D. From 2019 to 2021, annual capital expenditures averaged only tens of millions of dollars (for servers, office space, and other expenses). This increased to approximately $150 million in 2022 (as the company purchased office buildings and expanded its data center capacity). In 2023, CapEx was further reduced, by approximately $50 million. Regarding acquisitions, Coinbase spent significantly around 2021 (e.g., approximately $100 million on the acquisitions of Bison Trails and Skew). Acquisitions slowed from 2022 to 2023. In 2024, the company made small acquisitions of One River Asset Management, among others. Overall, investing cash flow was a net outflow, but the outflow was small and did not impact cash flow from the core business. In addition, the company announced a major acquisition plan for the derivatives exchange Deribit from the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025: the total transaction price is approximately 2.9 billion, including approximately 700 million in cash payment (the rest is the issuance of approximately 11 million shares). Free Cash Flow: Considering operating cash flow minus capital expenditures, Coinbase’s free cash flow in profitable years is very impressive: $9.7 billion in 2021, negative in 2022, returning to positive around $400 million in 2023, and around $2.56 billion in 2024, demonstrating ample cash flow generation. Coinbase will invest excess cash in safe assets (such as short-term government bonds) or hold some crypto assets. Financing Cash Flow: In 2021, the company raised approximately 3.25 billion yuan through convertible and corporate bonds, while also issuing no new shares in its IPO (no proceeds were raised through its direct listing). There were no major financing activities in 2022. In 2023, Coinbase proactively repurchased or repaid a portion of its bonds, repurchasing 413 million yuan in debt at a discount, reducing interest expenses. The company has no dividend plan, with only small-scale share repurchases in late 2022 and 2023 to hedge equity incentives. Its overall financial policy is conservative and prudent. Cash reserves: In the first quarter of 2025, Coinbase’s cash and cash equivalents reached US$9.9 billion. The cash and cash equivalents announced in the second quarter were US$7.539 billion, a significant decrease, but still relatively abundant. 6.4 Balance Sheet Health (5 Years) Coinbase has a relatively strong balance sheet, characterized by high liquidity and low leverage: Debt Level: The company issued two bonds during the 2021 bull market: a 1.25 billion yuan convertible bond due in 2026 and a 2 billion yuan senior note due in 2028 and 2031. This resulted in peak long-term debt of approximately 3.25 billion yuan. The company did not raise any further debt in 2022-2023, and the repayment/repurchase of bonds by the end of 2023 reduced debt to approximately 2.8 billion yuan. With an adjusted EBITDA of approximately 3.35 billion yuan in 2024, net debt/EBITDA is approximately zero (in a net cash position), or gross debt/EBITDA is less than 0.9x, indicating extremely low leverage. Overall debt-to-equity has remained low since its IPO. Notably, Coinbase has not borrowed from banks as of 2024. Its debt is all public market bonds, eliminating the risk of loan withdrawal and with long-term maturities, minimizing short-term debt repayment pressure. Liquidity: Coinbase boasts a substantial cash and cash equivalent position and an exceptionally high quick ratio. Excluding customer deposit liabilities (which have corresponding customer assets), the company’s core operating liquid assets far exceed its current liabilities. In its 2025 semi-annual report, its quick ratio (excluding customer-related liabilities) exceeded 3.19x, meaning its cash and cash equivalents covered all short-term liabilities by more than three times. Of particular note is its highly liquid USDC reserves (convertible at a 1:1 ratio to the US dollar daily). Despite a brief USDC depeg in 2023, the company promptly fulfilled customer redemptions, avoiding any liquidity squeeze. Asset Quality: Assets primarily consist of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments (such as high-rated bonds), accounting for over 60%. The company’s crypto holdings are relatively modest, with a fair value of 1.839 billion in Q2 2025. The fair value of crypto assets held was 1.261 billion (68.6%), comprising 11,776 BTC, 340 million (18.5%), and 238 million (12.9%) in other crypto assets. This is manageable relative to the company’s net assets, and price fluctuations will not significantly impact solvency. Overall, Coinbase boasts a high level of financial security, including low leverage, ample liquidity, and the ability to withstand multiple stress tests. This strong balance sheet also enables Coinbase to make countercyclical investments during market downturns. For example, during the industry downturn of 2022-2023, the company maintained its R&D investment and international expansion, which will benefit its long-term competitive position. 6.5 Industry Comparison Compare Coinbase’s financial metrics for Q2 of 2024 and 2025 with those of other publicly listed or comparable exchanges. We selected Robinhood, Kraken, and Binance as our comparison targets: Robinhood (US stock brokerage and crypto trading platform): Net revenue in 2024 is expected to be approximately $2.951 billion, a year-on-year increase of 58%, achieving its first full-year profit in history with a net profit of $1.411 billion (compared to a loss of $541 million in 2023). Thanks to interest income driven by high interest rates and a rebound in trading, Robinhood’s gross profit margin in 2024 will reach 94%, with a net profit margin of approximately 48%. Revenue in the first quarter of 2025 was $927 million (a 50% year-on-year increase), with a net profit of $336 million. With improved performance, Robinhood’s stock price has risen significantly since the end of 2024, with a current market capitalization exceeding $95 billion. Kraken (a long-established US crypto exchange, privately held): Surging trading volume in 2024 drove revenue to approximately $1.5 billion, a 128% year-over-year increase, nearing a record high. Full-year adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately $400 million, with an EBITDA margin between 25% and 30%. By the end of 2024, Kraken’s platform assets will reach $42.8 billion, with 2.5 million monthly active paying users and an average annual revenue per user exceeding $700. In Q1 2025, Kraken achieved revenue of $472 million (up 19% year-over-year and down 7% quarter-over-quarter), while Q2 revenue reached approximately $411.6 million, a further -13% quarter-over-quarter decrease. As a privately held company, Kraken’s latest valuation has not been disclosed, but media reports indicate that it sought funding at a valuation exceeding $10 billion in 2021. Kraken’s private equity price on the Hiive private equity trading platform is $42.8, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $9.1 billion. This represents a rapid increase in value over the past three months, nearly doubling. The doubling of revenue in 2024 indicates a significant increase in actual business scale, and its valuation multiple relative to revenue is likely lower than that of fellow publicly traded companies Coinbase and Robinhood. बिनेंस (the world’s largest privately listed crypto exchange): As an industry leader, Binance’s trading volume and user base far surpass its peers. While its financial data is not regularly disclosed, previous industry analysts estimate 2023 revenue to be approximately $16.8 billion, a 40% increase over the previous year and approximately 2.7 times Coinbase’s revenue during the same period. Binance reportedly achieved over $12 billion in revenue and nearly $10 billion in profit in 2022, reflecting impressive profitability and business scale (with a profit margin of approximately 80%). Due to its private nature, Binance does not have a publicly available market capitalization or valuation multiple; however, based on its revenue and profit volume, even with a lower valuation multiple, its implied market capitalization could still reach hundreds of billions of dollars. Regarding the regulatory environment, Binance has faced compliance pressure and litigation challenges in the United States, Europe, and other regions, adding uncertainty to its future growth and potential IPO prospects. Overall, Binance leads the industry in absolute scale with its overwhelming market share, but compliant listed platforms such as Coinbase have higher market confidence reflected in their valuation levels (such as price-to-sales ratio, EV/EBITDA multiples, etc.), which is related to regulatory transparency and differences in business models. Let’s compare Coinbase and Robinhood’s Q2 data over the past 25 years: Overall, the two companies’ revenue and other indicators are relatively similar. Coinbase’s market capitalization is currently $79.8 billion, while Robinhood’s is $101.8 billion. However, their revenue structures differ significantly. Coinbase’s revenue comes from trading + subscriptions/custody/stablecoins/derivatives; Robinhood’s revenue comes from brokerage fees + interest income (the interest spread earned on user funds deposited in banks + margin trading income) + subscriptions/options/crypto trading. In recent years, Robinhood has rapidly expanded its platform assets and user base, and has also acquired Bitstamp to promote internationalization, making it a direct competitor to Coinabase both in the United States and globally. In summary, Coinbase’s financial performance reflects the high-growth, high-volatility characteristics of the industry. However, thanks to effective cost control and a solid balance sheet, the company has maintained its resilience during downturns and achieved exceptional profitability during peak periods. This resilience presents both an investment advantage and a risk: if the crypto market continues to improve, Coinbase could potentially achieve the same profit peaks as in 2021. Conversely, if the market weakens, the company will need to tighten its spending to avoid a repeat of the losses seen in 2022. Currently, even in the event of a renewed bull market, the company has maintained a lean staff and maintained good cost control. Future efforts will require careful attention to whether the expansion of its subscription business can mitigate cyclical impacts and further strengthen the company’s financial performance. 7. Competitive Advantage and Moat Coinbase’s ability to gain a foothold and become a leader in the fierce competition in the crypto industry is closely related to the multiple moats it has built: Brand trust and compliance advantages As one of the earliest exchanges to enter the regulatory compliance arena, Coinbase has built strong brand credibility. It is one of the few exchanges in the United States to hold state licenses (since 2013, it has obtained money transmitter licenses in 46 states/territories, legally operating in all 50 states), FinCEN registration, and a New York trust charter. Since its inception, Coinbase has experienced no significant user asset losses. This has established Coinbase as a secure and trustworthy exchange among users, a strength further emphasized following the collapse of peers like Mt. Gox and FTX, as well as thefts from numerous crypto exchanges. For large institutions and mainstream users, Coinbase is often the first, or even only, choice. For example, in the United States, regulatory restrictions restrict many traditional funds to using licensed exchanges, giving Coinbase a natural market share. Coinbase also proactively cooperates with regulatory bodies (such as Know Your Customer and Anti-Money Laundering), earning a positive reputation among policymakers and lobbying for favorable regulations. The barriers created by brand and compliance are difficult for newcomers to replicate quickly and cost-effectively. ( License application cycles typically take 12–18 months, accompanied by ongoing annual inspections for capital adequacy, anti-money laundering, and cybersecurity. New entrants face hundreds of millions of dollars in compliance costs to obtain licenses in all states .) Even if a new platform is technologically competitive, without regulatory backing and a years-long, accident-free track record, it will be difficult to challenge Coinbase’s position among conservative funds and novice users in the short term. This trust advantage also carries a premium: Coinbase can charge relatively higher fees because users are willing to pay for security and reliability. Network Effects and Liquidity Exchanges have significant network effects: more users and trading volume lead to deeper liquidity and a better trading experience, which in turn attracts even more users. After years of operation, Coinbase has amassed a massive global user base and massive trading volume. According to statistics, 67% of US cryptocurrency holders have used Coinbase. This high reach makes Coinbase the gateway platform to the crypto space. New coins and projects seeking to reach a broad user base often target Coinbase. A large user base also means a deep order book and tight bid-ask spreads, which are crucial for the trading experience. Especially during periods of volatile price fluctuations, platforms with deep liquidity can better accommodate large trades without slippage, further solidifying professional traders’ reliance on Coinbase. Network effects are also reinforced through word-of-mouth: more users lead to a stronger referral effect, with new traders more likely to choose platforms their friends use, creating a positive cycle. It’s extremely difficult for competitors to disrupt this virtuous cycle unless they offer radically differentiated services in a specific niche (such as zero fees or support for specialized assets). Currently, Coinbase’s network effects in the European and American markets appear relatively solid. Economies of scale & diversified business stickiness Coinbase’s scale advantage lies not only in its liquidity network effects, but also in its cost advantages and business mix. As a publicly listed company, Coinbase can raise sufficient funds to invest in system security, product development, and compliance teams, which translates into lower per-transaction costs. Smaller platforms often cannot afford expensive compliance and security investments. Coinbase’s operational efficiency improves as its customer base expands, creating a moat of economies of scale. Furthermore, the company’s diverse business segments (trading, custody, staking, stablecoins, etc.) mutually reinforce user stickiness. Users on Coinbase not only trade, but also deposit coins to earn interest, participate in staking to earn returns, and use USDC for payments. These multiple needs are met on the same platform, increasing migration costs. Technical and security barriers While the technical barriers to entry for trading are relatively low compared to high-tech industries, Coinbase has built significant technical advantages through years of development in areas such as high-concurrency matching, wallet security, and multi-chain support. Its trading engine has been tested during peak bull markets (for example, daily trading volumes reached tens of billions of dollars in 2021), demonstrating its robustness in handling extreme trading surges. Regarding wallet security, Coinbase has experienced no major hacks to date, a record that many competitors of its caliber struggle to claim (even Binance has experienced thefts in the hundreds of millions of dollars). Furthermore, Coinbase has independently developed numerous internal systems, such as tools for analyzing and monitoring suspicious transactions, preventing market manipulation, and professional APIs, providing reliable technical support to institutions and partners. These achievements are not easily replicated. Especially in terms of security and risk management, any new platform can face significant reputational damage if it encounters even a single serious vulnerability. Coinbase’s years of investment in security have established a strong barrier in the minds of users. Moat Sustainability Discussion Can these moats be sustained over the long term? Let’s evaluate each one individually: In terms of brand and compliance, as more mainstream institutions become involved and regulatory rules are introduced, Coinbase’s existing licenses will become more valuable. Its first-mover advantage is likely to expand further, as it has established a strong reputation and has experience and scale advantages over later entrants in license application and compliance costs. However, regulatory uncertainty may still pose challenges (for example, in the worst-case scenario, a change in government and Congress could lead to a shift in US regulatory style, limiting Coinbase’s core market). The network effect is likely to be robust. Unless Coinbase experiences a crisis of trust or prolonged technical outages, user churn is unlikely. However, it’s important to note that the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) may weaken the network effect of centralized platforms among some professional users (some turning to DEXs like Uniswap and on-chain exchanges like Hyperliquid for independent trading). However, the current DeFi experience and liquidity are not sufficient to significantly impact Coinbase. Furthermore, Coinbase’s aggressive development of Base and its smart crypto wallets is a hedge against this trend. Economies of scale and diversified stickiness will become increasingly significant as the company expands its business. As Coinbase grows, its cost structure becomes more favorable, and user ARPU increases—a positive cycle. However, there are also risks: too many business lines can distract management attention, and the regulatory requirements for different businesses are complex, requiring the company to ensure that “the ship is big enough to withstand leaks.” Technological barriers require continuous investment to maintain. Coinbase invests heavily in research and development every year (technological research and development expenses in 2023 were 1.2 billion, accounting for 40% of revenue, and the absolute value increased by 11% in 2024, but the proportion of revenue dropped to 22%). As long as this level of investment is maintained, technological leadership should be able to continue. Overall, Coinbase has established a competitive moat, particularly in its domestic US market, where it stands out in terms of its soft power—trust and compliance. As the industry matures, the “stronger gets stronger” effect is likely to intensify—with capital and users converging on leading compliant platforms, potentially deepening Coinbase’s competitive moat. Barring a major global shift (such as a disruptive decentralized exchange completely replacing centralized exchanges, or a major misstep on Coinbase’s part), its competitive advantage will likely persist for the foreseeable future. 8. Key risks and challenges Key risk factors that Coinbase still faces: Macro and industry cycle risks The cryptocurrency market is highly cyclical, and Coinbase’s performance is heavily dependent on trading volume and coin prices. A bear market similar to those seen in 2018 and 2022 could significantly reduce trading activity, putting pressure on the company’s revenue and profits, or even leading to renewed losses. Macroeconomic tightening (such as tighter liquidity and a high-interest rate environment) can also dampen market speculation and asset prices. Furthermore, the crypto market is still immature and susceptible to single events (such as exchange bankruptcies, hacker attacks, and large-scale investor sell-offs, which can trigger a decline in overall confidence). For example, the FTX debacle in 2022 caused a sharp drop in industry trading volume. While Coinbase wasn’t directly exposed to this risk, its overall business was inevitably impacted. Regulatory policy uncertainty Regulation is one of the biggest uncertainties hanging over Coinbase, particularly in the United States. Previously, the SEC and other agencies hadn’t clearly defined which tokens were classified as securities, or whether exchanges were illegally providing services (though this has now clearly improved). Furthermore, the US still hasn’t introduced clear laws for digital asset trading, and the Clarity Act’s passage this year remains uncertain. If it drags on into next year, with the midterm elections, the situation could become even more complex. Internationally, regulatory changes in other countries could also impact Coinbase’s overseas expansion plans. Technical security and system stability risks As a platform holding hundreds of billions of user assets, Coinbase faces significant cybersecurity risks and technical operational challenges. Any hacker attack resulting in the theft of customer assets would be devastating to the company’s reputation and finances. Hacking incidents are frequent across the crypto industry, and even with Coinbase’s established track record, it remains highly vigilant. Furthermore, system crashes or outages during periods of high trading concurrency pose a risk. Historically, Coinbase has experienced several brief outages during periods of significant market volatility, leading to user complaints. If the platform is unable to trade at critical moments, users may turn to other channels. Furthermore, new products (such as smart contracts) may contain code vulnerabilities, and staking and other services carry protocol risks. These technical issues must be handled with caution. Compliance costs and legal dispute risks While strengthened and standardized regulation offers the benefit of a clearer path to compliant operations, Coinbase’s compliance costs are also likely to rise. For example, obtaining and maintaining licenses in various countries, anti-money laundering monitoring, and human resource audits all represent significant annual expenses. Increased regulatory inspections will also distract management. If future laws require exchanges to fulfill additional obligations (such as transaction reporting and user asset capital requirements), this will increase the burden and impact profits. Furthermore, as an industry benchmark, Coinbase is vulnerable to lawsuits. Besides regulatory bodies, legal risks also arise, such as class action lawsuits and user disputes. Once involved in litigation, not only will the company face compensation for losses, but it could also damage its brand. For example, in 2022, some users sued Coinbase for misleading advertising. While the amount was small, it drained company resources. These types of legal disputes are likely to continue. Coinbase needs a strong legal team (which is already strong under the leadership of its CLO), but legal risks are inevitable and could negatively impact its reputation. Market competition intensifies risks While Coinbase’s current position is solid, the competitive landscape is rapidly changing. Among major competitors, international platforms like Binance continue to put pressure on Coinbase in certain markets (e.g., by offering lower fees and a wider range of currencies). If Binance successfully navigates regulatory challenges, its massive user base could once again threaten Coinbase’s global market share. The entry of traditional financial giants is also a potential competition: For example, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has acquired another US crypto exchange Bakkt, and Nasdaq has also made plans. In the future, it is not ruled out that large investment banks or technology companies will launch their own crypto trading services, using their resources and financial advantages to grab customers. Competition in Innovative Models: The rise of decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and DeFi poses a long-term challenge to centralized platforms. While the DEX experience currently lacks traction, technology is advancing, and some experienced users are already turning to trading methods that allow them to control their own assets. If DEXs catch up in performance and liquidity in the coming years, Coinbase could lose high-end users. Furthermore, the increased support for crypto trading by fintech brokerages like Robinhood is also diverting some retail investor traffic. Merger and acquisition and integration risks Coinbase has made numerous acquisitions and expanded into new businesses during its expansion, including the aforementioned NFT platform and a series of startup teams. However, integrating new businesses and teams presents risks: cultural integration, technical integration, and underachieving expectations. The NFT business is an example of poor results resulting from a poor synergy between the acquired team and internal resources. Coinbase may continue to accelerate its expansion through mergers and acquisitions (such as acquiring payment companies and custodians). Each acquisition carries the risk of integration difficulties or subpar performance, and is even more likely to result in a loss of focus on its core business due to the diversification of its business. Furthermore, large-scale mergers and acquisitions carry the risk of regulatory approval, especially since Coinbase is already a market leader. Any future acquisitions within the industry could be subject to antitrust scrutiny (for example, the acquisition of another US exchange could be blocked). Global geopolitical and legal environment risks As a multinational enterprise, Coinbase faces risks arising from political and economic changes in various countries. For example, certain jurisdictions may suddenly ban cryptocurrency trading, or international sanctions (such as restrictions on Russian users during the Russia-Ukraine conflict) could entangle Coinbase in complex compliance requirements. Furthermore, fluctuations in exchange rates and tax policies could impact Coinbase’s international profits. While these risks are not core, they require the company’s management to possess global adaptability. Of these risks, regulation and market cycles are arguably the most significant and will continue to significantly impact Coinbase’s future performance. While the company is already taking steps to address these challenges, considerable uncertainty remains. 9. Valuation We use the relative valuation method to value Coinbase and consider both bull and bear extreme scenarios to evaluate the target price range. Valuation Methodology: Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S): Due to Coinbase’s volatile performance, valuation using earnings metrics like the P/E ratio is unstable. The P/S ratio provides a relatively intuitive metric. Historically, Coinbase has traded at a P/S ratio of nearly 20 times during peak periods and less than 3 times during bear market troughs. The current share price represents approximately 11.7 times the company’s actual revenue for the most recent year (this high multiple reflects investors’ expectations of continued rapid revenue growth). Compared to most other trading platform-based fintech companies, this multiple is moderate, particularly significantly lower than that of fellow trading platform Robinhood. Considering Coinbase’s high gross profit margins and high growth resilience, a baseline P/S ratio of around 10-15 times is reasonable, corresponding to a market capitalization of $67.1 billion to $100.7 billion and a share price of $23.2 billion to $348 (based on a conservative calculation of 289 million fully diluted shares).Coinbase benchmarks the PS of US-listed trading platform companies
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (EV/EBITDA): Traditional exchanges are often valued based on EBITDA. Coinbase’s current TTM EBITDA is approximately $3.18 billion, corresponding to an EV/EBITDA multiple of approximately 24x. This is slightly higher than the 18-22+ multiples of exchanges like CME and CBOE, but significantly lower than Robinhood’s 63x. While Coinbase has greater growth potential than traditional exchanges, it also presents greater performance volatility, higher uncertainty, and a lower present value. Based on baseline assumptions regarding the regulatory environment and industry development, I believe Coinbase’s EV/EBITDA range is reasonable, corresponding to an equity value (EV) of approximately $63.6 billion to $95.4 billion and a share price of $220 to $330. To maintain a sufficient safety margin, a 20-20% discount to the 20-30x EV/EBITDA multiple could be considered as a buying range (the same applies to PS). 10. Conclusion सारांश: As a global leader in cryptocurrency trading and services, Coinbase, with its trusted brand, broad user base, and diverse product offerings, possesses the potential for continued growth in the crypto-finance sector. Despite experiencing both rapid growth and sharp market corrections over the past few years, management has proactively managed the situation, successfully maintaining financial stability and strategic focus. Coinbase’s long-term value is promising, based on the following key points: Its strong reputation for compliant operations and safety and reliability will help it continue to attract mainstream funds and institutions. The rise of diversified revenue streams such as subscriptions and interest payments has made the business model more multi-faceted and more resilient to cyclical fluctuations. A strong balance sheet and ample cash provide the company with both cushion and offensive capabilities amidst technological innovation, international expansion, and headwinds. Long-term industry trends continue to point to growth: Blockchain and digital assets are expected to be increasingly integrated into mainstream finance, and Coinbase has a good ecological position. However, although the fluctuations in its revenue and profits with industry cycles are expected to slow down compared with the previous cycle, it is still difficult to avoid large fluctuations, and this situation has already begun to show signs in the latest quarter’s financial report. In addition, Coinbase is in a highly competitive arena. It faces direct competition from Robinhood and Kraken in the domestic US market, and a large number of offshore crypto exchanges are fighting each other overseas. Decentralized trading platforms such as Uniswap and on-chain exchange Hyperliquid are also developing rapidly. It can be said that Coinbase faces both competitive challenges and opportunities of the times. Catalysts and Watchlist: In the coming quarters, we recommend focusing on the following factors and events that could impact Coinbase’s stock price: Regulatory progress: The dynamics of the US Congress regarding crypto regulatory bills, such as the passage of Clarity, will be beneficial to the development of crypto and Coinbase’s business. Macro and industry indicators: Bitcoin price trends, overall trading volume changes, on-chain activity data, etc. If mainstream cryptocurrency prices break new highs, this will lead to increased trading volume and a surge in new users, which is a significant positive. Monthly industry trading volume trends should also be tracked to identify bull-bear inflection points. Product and Market Expansion: Coinbase’s progress in its derivatives business (e.g., US approval for a full-service crypto futures platform), international market growth (user growth after regulatory approval), and new products (e.g., the prosperity of the Base blockchain ecosystem) are key to broadening revenue streams. If derivatives trading volume surges significantly in a given quarter in 2025, or if the proportion of overseas revenue increases significantly, this will confirm the success of the company’s new growth engine. Industry Trends: Competitor strategies, such as whether Binance and Kraken encounter regulatory bottlenecks or strategic retrenchment, will benefit Coinbase in its efforts to gain market share. Furthermore, partnership opportunities with traditional financial giants like BlackRock entering the crypto space (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs using Coinbase as a custodian/marketing partner) are also worth monitoring. Operational indicators: Changes in Monthly Trading Users (MTU), Assets Under Management (AUM) trends, fee levels, etc. A rebound in MTU signals improved retail investor activity; an increase in AUM indicates net capital inflows into the platform. A decrease in fees while stable indicates a shift in the competitive landscape, necessitating analysis to determine whether this is a strategic move to increase volume or due to pressure. 11. Appendix Glossary: Monthly Transacting User (MTU): Monthly Transacting User (MTU) is defined as any retail user who has conducted at least one transaction (buy, sell, or stake) within any 28-day period. Quarterly MTU is the average of all monthly values. This metric reflects retail user activity. Adjusted EBITDA: Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), a non-GAAP measure used by Coinbase management to measure operating performance. Adjustments include share-based compensation and one-time legal expenses. Negative values in 2022 represent operating losses. Coinbase One: A subscription service for retail users. A monthly fee provides access to zero-fee transactions up to a certain limit, priority customer service, and other benefits. This service aims to increase user engagement and generate subscription revenue. MiCA: The EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation, which will be implemented in 2024-2025, will provide unified regulatory standards for cryptocurrency issuance and services across the EU for the first time. TTM: Information for the trailing twelve months ending with the most recent financial reporting period. मूल लिंक यह लेख इंटरनेट से लिया गया है: Coinbase Panorama Report: The Current Status, Risks, and Valuation of the Leading US Compliant ExchangeRecommended Articles Related: Why is Raydium the biggest beneficiary of Letsbonk.fun’s rise? 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