温馨提示：本站仅提供公开网络链接索引服务，不存储、不篡改任何第三方内容，所有内容版权归原作者所有
AI智能索引来源：http://www.bee.com/hi/52819.html
点击访问原文链接

Behind the CRCL pullback, who captured the economic value of USDC? | Bee Network

进入原网站 导航首页
Behind the CRCL pullback, who captured the economic value of USDC? | Bee Network Login ट्रेंडिंग न्यूज़ मीम लॉन्चपैड एआई एजेंट डेस्सी टॉपचेनएक्सप्लोरर न्यूबी के लिए 100x सिक्के मधुमक्खी खेल आवश्यक वेबसाइटें एपीपी अवश्य होना चाहिए क्रिप्टो हस्तियाँ डेपिन नौसिखिया आवश्यक ट्रैप डिटेक्टर बुनियादी उपकरण उन्नत वेबसाइटें एक्सचेंजों एनएफटी उपकरण नमस्ते, साइन आउट वेब3 यूनिवर्स खेल डीऐप मधुमुखी का छत्ता बढ़ता हुआ मंच विज्ञापन खोज अंग्रेज़ी रिचार्ज सिक्के लॉग इन करें डाउनलोड करना वेब3 यूनी खेल डीऐप मधुमुखी का छत्ता विज्ञापन घर•विश्लेषण•मुख्य पाठ Behind the CRCL pullback, who captured the economic value of USDC?विश्लेषण8महीना पहलेहाँव्याट 29,6861 48 Original title: Circle Goes Public: CRCL Valuation the Economics of USDC

Original article by: Tanay Ved

Original translation: johyyn, BlockBeats

Editors Note: The author analyzes Circles recent market value fluctuations, USDCs revenue structure and partnerships. The background of this article is that the passage of the GENIUS Act has triggered the markets renewed attention to the stablecoin track. Circles market value once exceeded US$63 billion, exceeding the total value of the USDC it issued. The author analyzes Circles current revenue structure, partnership with Coinbase and cost structure through on-chain data and public documents, and points out the sustainability pressure and growth concerns behind its high valuation, especially in the context of falling interest rates and intensified competition, and warns and prospects for the diversification of its business model.

मूल सामग्री निम्नलिखित है (पढ़ने और समझने में आसानी के लिए मूल सामग्री को पुनर्गठित किया गया है):

प्रमुख बिंदु: 1. Circles market value has skyrocketed but its valuation is high: The passage of the GENIUS Act has pushed Circles market value to $63 billion, which now exceeds the value of USDC in circulation. However, based on its valuation of about 37 times its revenue in the past 12 months and about 401 times its net profit, it is increasingly out of touch with its fundamentals.

2. Coinbase is a core partner and a major cost: In 2024, Coinbase received approximately 56% of USDC reserve revenue, which became a major distribution cost for Circle. Nevertheless, the partnership between the two parties is still critical to expanding the scale of USDC through Coinbases products and ecosystem.

3. Reserve income will grow, but the share ratio is limited: According to on-chain data and public documents, Circles USDC reserve income may grow from US$1.6 billion in 2024 to more than US$9 billion in 2029. However, under the current revenue sharing terms, Circle may only be able to retain less than half of the amount, which highlights the importance of expanding revenue sources beyond reserves.

4. Growth depends on scale expansion and market share competition under downward interest rates: With interest rates expected to fall, Circles long-term revenue potential depends critically on expanding the supply of USDC and increasing market share amid increasingly fierce competition from newly approved issuers.

परिचय Stablecoins are having a breakout moment, and Circle is in the spotlight. Circle Internet Group, the issuer of the US stablecoin USDC (the second largest stablecoin with a market cap of about $61 billion and a 25% market share), went public on the New York Stock अदला-बदली (NYSE) on June 5. Since then, CRCLs stock price has soared more than 700% from its initial public offering (IPO) price of $31 per share to about $263 per share. At a market cap of $63 billion, Circle is currently valued higher than the USDC it issues (the size of its reserves).

Circles IPO comes at a perfect time, spurred by the passage of the GENIUS Act by the U.S. Senate. Combined with the growing demand for compliant digital dollars, Circle is taking advantage of the markets strong interest in pure stablecoin exposure. Its strong debut performance has also ignited market interest in IPOs of other क्रिप्टो companies (such as Bullish and Gemini Exchange), while spurring increased public market activity and renewed attention to the economics of stablecoins.

In this edition of the Coin Metrics Network State of the Year report, we analyze Circle’s post-IPO performance and valuation, dissect who is capturing the economic value of USDC, and forecast Circle’s future revenue potential based on interest rates, USDC adoption, and the competitive landscape of the stablecoin market.

Circle (CRCL) Performance Circles IPO was one of the most high-profile U.S. tech IPOs in recent years. The offering was oversubscribed by more than 25 times, with the stock opening well above the IPO price of $31. Even as the broader crypto market pulled back, CRCLs stock price continued to rise against the trend, pushing Circles market value to $63 billion.

Valuation Standards But does such a high valuation justify the companys fundamentals? Based on Circles total revenue of $1.67 billion and net profit of $157 million in 2024, $CRCL is currently trading at about 37 times the revenue of the past twelve months (price-to-sales ratio, P/S) and 401 times the net profit (price-to-earnings ratio, P/E). These multiples far exceed comparable fintech companies such as NuBank (about 27 times), Robinhood (about 45 times), and even Coinbase (about 57 times), which has a more diversified revenue source and higher profit margins.

Multiple factors appear to be converging to drive this premium. Circle offers the public direct access to digital dollar growth, benefiting both from the GENIUS Act and from its first-mover advantage in regulated markets. USDC and Circle are well-positioned to benefit as the addressable market expands. However, at a $65 billion market cap, narrative-driven enthusiasm appears to be outpacing the underlying fundamentals. Key risks include heavy reliance on interest income, which could be compressed if U.S. interest rates fall, and increasing competition from banks and fintechs (the GENIUS Act paves the way for more regulated stablecoin issuers with similar business models).

Who captures the economic value of USDC? Circle generates almost all of its revenue from interest income generated by its USDC reserves. These reserves are held in cash at banks and in the Circle Reserve Fund managed by BlackRock, which invests in short-term U.S. Treasuries. At the end of 2024, Circle generated $1.6 billion in gross income on $44 billion in reserves, which translates to an effective reserve yield of about 3.6%. However, after paying more than $900 million in distribution costs (mostly to Coinbase), Circle retained $768 million in net income on its USDC business.

Circle and Coinbase revenue sharing Although Circle remains the sole issuer of USDC, it does not capture all of its value. Through its equity in Circle and its revenue-sharing agreement with it, Coinbase earns:

1. 100% interest income generated by USDC held by customers through the Coinbase platform;

2. 50% interest income generated by USDC held by customers elsewhere.

Based on this arrangement, both parties are motivated to expand the adoption of USDC. Coinbase has played a vital role in driving the growth of USDC, significantly increasing the distribution of USDC through its exchange, the Base Layer-2 network (which currently carries $37 billion in USDC), and new products such as Coinbase Payments. According to Circles S-1 filing, Coinbases share of USDC has steadily increased, from about 5% in 2022 to 12% in 2023, and then to 20% in 2024. As of the first quarter of 2025, this share accounts for 22% of the total supply, which means that its various platforms hold a total of $12 billion in USDC.

The following diagram illustrates the distribution flow of funds generated by USDC between Circle and Coinbase in 2024. The USDC reserve income shared by Coinbase is considered as Circles cost expenditure, which clearly reflects the operating mechanism of how value flows from USDC reserves to Circle and is ultimately distributed to Coinbase through the revenue sharing agreement between the two parties.

Based on the above projections, Coinbase has captured over 50% of Circle’s total USDC revenue, driven by the continued growth of USDC held on the platform. Although stablecoin revenue only accounts for about 23% of Coinbase’s total revenue, and part of the proceeds are returned to users through “USDC rewards”, the company still retains considerable upside. This interdependent economic relationship raises an important question: Given that Circle’s market capitalization has reached 82% of Coinbase’s, how should investors benchmark the two companies relative to each other?

Looking ahead to forecast USDC interest income Looking ahead, Circle’s revenue trajectory depends on three key variables: the supply of USDC in circulation (influenced by overall stablecoin market growth and its market share), prevailing interest rates, and the share of USDC held by Coinbase.

While USDC’s historical supply growth provides a useful benchmark, forecasting future supply growth is inherently uncertain. The actual impact of regulatory clarity, evolving competition, and the true role of macroeconomic conditions could significantly impact stablecoin adoption and market share. Given this, we modeled a gradual slowdown in growth—incorporating both short-term tailwinds (such as stablecoin legislation) and longer-term headwinds from increased competition and declining yields.

To better understand the long-term economic model of USDC, we modeled the net revenue of both Circle and Coinbase by 2029 based on these core elements.

In summary, the long-term revenue potential of Circle and Coinbase is closely related to the expansion of USDC supply and the maintenance of market share, which will help hedge the adverse effects of the downward trend in yields. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the total reserve income generated by USDC is expected to reach US$2.44 billion, of which Coinbase will benefit from approximately US$1.5 billion and Circle will benefit from approximately US$940 million.

If current market dynamics continue, this revenue could rise to $9.15 billion by 2029, with Coinbase receiving $5.99 billion and Circle receiving $3.16 billion.

It is important to note that this estimate only covers USDC reserve revenue, which currently accounts for the vast majority of Circle’s revenue, and does not include potential upside from emerging business lines such as the Circle Payments Network, which may play an increasingly important role in diversifying revenue in the future.

निष्कर्ष के तौर पर Circles IPO marks an important milestone in the stablecoin industry, providing investors with an opportunity to directly participate in the growth of the digital dollar. In the near term, regulatory momentum and Circles positioning in the compliant market provide favorable support; however, its long-term growth prospects still depend on the expansion of USDC supply, market share, and the diversification of its revenue structure to non-reserve sources.

The current valuation multiples of CRCL are significantly higher than the fundamentals. Whether it can transform regulatory clarity, institutional partnerships and distribution capabilities into lasting and sustainable growth momentum in the future will be the key.

मूल लिंक

This article is from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats

This article is sourced from the internet: Behind the CRCL pullback, who captured the economic value of USDC?

Related: Guotai Junan surged 190%, will Hong Kong stocks also usher in the crypto-stock boom? On June 25, the share price of Guotai Junan International soared 80% in early trading and more than 190% during the day, becoming one of the strongest Hong Kong stocks of the day. Behind the surge in share prices, this traditional financial brokerage firm has entered the cryptocurrency stock market in a high-profile manner. The company announced today that it has obtained approval from the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission to officially enter the cryptocurrency trading service. In addition to the previous layout of Bitcoin and Ethereum asset allocation by many Hong Kong-listed companies, as well as the policy catalysis brought about by the upcoming entry into force of the Stablecoin Ordinance, the Hong Kong stock market is quietly ushering in a crypto-stock boom. Brokerage aircraft carrier Guotai Junan International…

# विश्लेषण# क्रिप्टो# एक्सचेंज# मार्केट© 版权声明सरणी 上一篇 InfoFi in-depth research report: Attention finance experiment in the AI era 下一篇 Bitcoin Ecosystem Revolution? The Turning Point from Meme Narrative to Value Precipitation 相关文章 BitMEX Alpha: Bitcoin Bottom and Q1 2026 Outlook 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 18,397 3 xBrokers Platform Token X Officially Launches: An Institutional Experiment on a Fair Launch 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 20,672 1 When the price of Ethereum and its micro-strategies fluctuates drastically, how can we make steady progress in the optio 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 25,403 4 After a year of cryptocurrency trading, my returns are not as good as my mom’s A-share trading. 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 17,715 Is Ethereum’s staking bottleneck coming? 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 19,593 3 With the second-largest investor selling off his entire portfolio at a loss, and AAVE embroiled in conflicting sentiment 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 14,833 3 1 टिप्पणियाँ टिप्पणी करने के लिए आपको लॉगिन होना होगा! तुरंत लॉगइन करें Muráň अतिथि 好好干

5 महीने पहले Bee.com दुनिया का सबसे बड़ा Web3 पोर्टल भागीदारों कॉइनकार्प बिनेंस कॉइनमार्केटकैप कॉइनगेको कॉइनलाइव कवच बी नेटवर्क ऐप डाउनलोड करें और वेब3 यात्रा शुरू करें सफेद कागज भूमिकाएँ सामान्य प्रश्न © 2021-2026. सर्वाधिकार सुरक्षित।. गोपनीयता नीति | सेवाओं की शर्तें बी नेटवर्क ऐप डाउनलोड करें और वेब3 यात्रा शुरू करें दुनिया का सबसे बड़ा Web3 पोर्टल भागीदारों CoinCarp Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive Armors सफेद कागज भूमिकाएँ सामान्य प्रश्न © 2021-2026. सर्वाधिकार सुरक्षित।. गोपनीयता नीति | सेवाओं की शर्तें खोज खोजइनसाइटऑनचेनसामाजिकसमाचार उत्तर: एयरड्रॉप शिकारी डेटा विश्लेषण क्रिप्टो हस्तियाँ ट्रैप डिटेक्टर हिन्दी English 繁體中文 简体中文 日本語 Tiếng Việt العربية 한국어 Bahasa Indonesia اردو Русский हिन्दी

智能索引记录