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Giants are shifting their focus: Why are Coinbase and Google betting heavily on the new prediction market track? | Bee Network

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Giants are shifting their focus: Why are Coinbase and Google betting heavily on the new prediction market track? | Bee Network Login Trending News Meme Launchpad AI Agents DeSci TopChainExplorer For Newbee 100x Coins Bee Game Essential Websites Must-Have APP Crypto Celebrities DePIN Rookies Essential Trap Detector Basic Tools Advanced Websites Exchanges NFT Tools Hi, Sign out Web3 Universe Games DApp Bee Hive Growing Platform AD Search English Recharge Coins Login Download Web3 Uni Games DApp Bee Hive AD home•Analysis•Main text Giants are shifting their focus: Why are Coinbase and Google betting heavily on the new prediction market track?Analysis3mos agoUpdateWyatt 16,002 18 Author｜Wenser ( @wenser2010 )

This morning at 6 AM, tech blogger @wongmjane revealed that Coinbase is partnering with Kalshi to develop a prediction market; Google also recently announced that it will integrate prediction data from Polymarket and Kalshi into Google Finance, allowing users to track the “collective intelligence” influencing event outcomes in real time. Suddenly, both Web2 and Web3 giants are heavily investing in the prediction market. What trend signals are behind this? Why are these giants making moves? Will prediction markets become a standard feature of future products? Odaily Planet Daily will guide you through this in one article.

When tech giants set their sights on prediction markets: new tracks, new opportunities, new opportunities. The news of Coinbase partnering with Kalshi to develop a prediction market was initially revealed by tech blogger @wongmjane . In the accompanying image, we can clearly see that Coinbase’s prediction market page is similar to Polymarket’s interface, also divided into sections such as “Trends,” “Latest,” and “Crypto,” allowing users to buy and sell corresponding tokens. Furthermore, the prediction market page thoughtfully includes a series of Q&As to help users quickly familiarize themselves with the platform’s functions and begin trading.

In the bottom right corner of the screenshot, we can clearly see that the prediction market was developed and built by Coinbase using Kalshi integration.

It’s worth noting that the blogger who made the whistleblower is a former Meta employee who gained attention for discovering unreleased features on social media platforms through reverse engineering.

Besides Coinbase, earlier this month, Google Finance’s announcement of plans to integrate Kalshi and Polymarket had already drawn close attention to prediction markets in the crypto market. And these two aren’t the only giants investing in this area.

In October of this year, at the Token2049 event in Singapore, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev told the media that prediction markets are a major innovation, similar to traditional sports lotteries, active trading, and traditional media news products, but not just one of these three; rather, it’s a hybrid. Conversely, prediction markets have enormous potential to transform these three massive industries. Furthermore, Robinhood launched its prediction market business line before last year’s presidential election, and it is currently one of its fastest-growing segments, one of its nine business lines generating over $100 million in annual revenue. Robinhood’s long-term vision is to create a super financial application, becoming a home for users’ assets.

The root of all this lies in the fact that predicting the market is one of the few remaining sources of “market growth”.

Earlier this month, data analyst Dash published an article stating that October was the most active month in the history of the prediction market, including:

The total number of users reached 524,200, of which 40.4% were new users. The number of transactions reached 30 million. The nominal transaction volume reached $8.7 billion. Odaily Planet Daily Note: Other data shows that Kalshi’s trading volume reached $4.4 billion in October; Polymarket’s trading volume was $3 billion in October, and the latter’s monthly active users exceeded 477,000, setting a new record. In addition, Kalshi leads in both transaction volume and number of transactions, with a market share of 45% to 55% (excluding user numbers); Polymarket follows closely behind, while other smaller projects account for only about 7% to 10%.

Considering that Kalshi, as the largest domestic prediction market in the US, profits from transaction fees, a fee rate of 1% to 2% already indicates a market with annual revenue of at least several billion dollars, and its trading volume is still growing rapidly. This is why Polymarket and Kalshi have attracted so much capital.

Recently, Polymarket received a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, valuing the company at approximately $9 billion; while Kalshi raised $300 million from backers such as Sequoia Capital and A16z at a valuation of $5 billion. According to a report in October , Kalshi was receiving venture capital proposals with a potential valuation of up to $12 billion, more than doubling its valuation in less than two weeks.

It must be said that when it comes to betting on the future, capital institutions are never stingy with their funds.

Predicting the future direction of the market: Standard features of internet products vs. the battleground for liquidity among giants. Judging from the current situation, the primary purpose of the giants betting on the prediction market is to compete for “liquidity”.

Prediction markets, which combine news events, financial transactions, and betting functions, not only serve as online platforms for users to profit through betting, but also, to some extent, act as “event prediction machines.” This was already evident in Trump’s victory in last year’s US presidential election.

In the realm of event prediction, where “everything can be bet on,” prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi can accommodate far more betting events than traditional sports lottery and gambling platforms. To a certain extent, the emergence of prediction markets represents a devastating blow to traditional betting platforms.

With the development of internet products reaching a certain level, AI and blockchain have become the undisputed “incremental markets” in the eyes of internet giants. As the penetration rate of AI gradually increases, in addition to stablecoins, PayPal, ETFs, and other means, another new way for blockchain technology to be adopted on a large scale is through prediction markets.

After all, as we mentioned in our previous article , “Odaily Interview with ‘Polymarket’s First Person in the Chinese Region: A Journey of 225 Times Return in 25 Days,” predicting the market is the shortest path to monetizing knowledge.

Taking the latest “Solomon fundraising betting incident” as an example, because Solomon Labs’ public offering on MetaDao raised $100 million at the last minute, becoming the second highest-funded project on MetaDao so far, second only to UmbraPrivacy, users on Polymarket who predicted Solomon’s fundraising amount to be between $20 million, $40 million, and $100 million were all “caught red” (lost money). Meanwhile, the suspected insider address “KimballDavies” chose the low-probability “yes” option for all bets in this event, accumulating a profit of over $500,000.

The previous bet on “CZ receiving a pardon from Trump” is also a prime example of monetizing knowledge. Although there may be insider information, the fact is that some people profited by betting on the correct outcome.

This is also one of the examples of how “collective wisdom” can be demonstrated after real money is bet.

In the near future, driven by competition for user attention or other considerations, prediction markets may become a standard feature on many internet information platforms, just like AI assistants and voice chat. After all, if you don’t integrate prediction markets while your competitors do, users will naturally vote with their feet, and traffic and other data will naturally be affected.

For ordinary users, getting involved and adapting as early as possible might be a better solution.

Recommended reading:

Polymarket in Action: A Complete Guide to Finding and Following “Smart Money”

This article is sourced from the internet: Giants are shifting their focus: Why are Coinbase and Google betting heavily on the new prediction market track?Recommended Articles

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