Murad, the reigning top trading signal provider: 116 reasons why a bull market is coming in 2026. | Bee Network

Murad, the reigning top trading signal provider: 116 reasons why a bull market is coming in 2026. | Bee Network Login 熱門新聞 Meme Launchpad AI 代理商 DeSci 熱門鏈瀏覽器 新人必讀 衝百倍幣 蜜蜂遊戲 必備網站 必備APP 必關大神 DePIN 新人必備 教我避坑 基本工具 深度網站 交易所 NFT 工具 你好， 登出 Web3宇宙 遊戲 DApp 蜂巢 增長平台 生態 搜尋 英語 Coins儲值 登入 下載 Web3大學 遊戲 DApp 蜂巢 生態 家•分析•Murad, the reigning top trading signal provider: 116 reasons why a bull market is coming in 2026. Murad, the reigning top trading signal provider: 116 reasons why a bull market is coming in 2026.分析3 个月前發佈懷亞特 12,508 27

Guest: Murad

播客來源： MustStopMurad

Original title: 116 Reasons Why Crypto BULL MARKET is NOT OVER

Broadcast date: November 27, 2025

Key points summary

Remember Murad, the king of trading signals from the last cycle? He’s the one who proposed the Meme supercycle theory.

Now he’s back.

In this podcast, Murad shares 116 bullish reasons, data analysis, and on-chain signals that suggest the cryptocurrency bull market could continue into 2026.

Murad believes this market cycle may break the previous pattern of occurring every four years and last longer.

Summary of key viewpoints
Bitcoin may experience a parabolic rise in the future, reaching a high of $150,000 to $200,000. ETF holders have very strong long-term confidence in Bitcoin. The Bitcoin bull market is not over yet and will continue until 2026. The stablecoin market is in a supercycle. Most of the recent sell-off came from traders and short-term holders. I disagree with the view that the market cycle is only four years; this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years, and may continue until 2026. The liquidation volume on the upside (short selling direction) is significantly greater than that on the downside (long selling direction), and the number of short positions exceeds the number of long positions. None of the 30 signals that indicate the traditional Bitcoin cycle has reached its top have been triggered, meaning the market has not yet reached its peak. The market trend in 2025, including the current price fluctuations, may just be a period of range-bound trading, laying the foundation for the next round of upward movement. The biggest pain points for Bitcoin options in late November and December were $102,000 and $99,000 respectively, far higher than the current market price. Bitcoin prices bottomed out near the ETF cost base range (approximately $79,000 to $82,000), a range that also aligns with the ETF’s realized price. Furthermore, $80,200 (slightly below recent lows) is considered the true market average price for Bitcoin. Several price indicators overlap within the $79,000 to $83,000 range, including the ETF cost base, realized price, and market average price. This price overlap is generally considered a support area. Further analysis of Bitcoin’s realized price distribution reveals that the $83,000 to $85,000 range is also a key support and resistance conversion area. Podcast content Analysis of the reasons for the recent BTC crash

The first question to answer is: Why did Bitcoin (BTC) plummet from $125,000 to $80,000?

第一的， some investors who subscribed to the four-year cycle theory engaged in significant selling, exacerbating downward pressure on the market. Simultaneously, the prolonged US government shutdown exceeded market expectations, further intensifying macroeconomic uncertainty . The government shutdown created financing pressure in the buyback market, and the slight decline in the stock market also negatively impacted the price of BTC.

In addition, some smaller digital reserve companies and early Bitcoin holders also sold off due to market contagion. To a lesser extent, some so-called BTC whales expressed dissatisfaction with the latest BTC Core update and engaged in “protest selling.” These factors combined to cause the atypical rapid decline in Bitcoin’s price over the past six weeks, from $125,000 to $80,000.

Nevertheless, I will use 116 reasons and charts to prove 那 the Bitcoin bull market is not over and is expected to continue until 2026.

116 Reasons to Support a BTC Bull Market Until 2026
Technical Analysis and Price Structure (TA)

1. The 36% drop we’ve recently seen isn’t unprecedented . If you look at all the retracements this cycle, this is the fastest, most rapid, and largest . However, we’ve seen retracements before, such as 32% in early 2025 and 33% in mid-2024. Those retracements are roughly equivalent to the 36% we’re seeing now. Therefore, it’s not unusual relative to the current situation in this cycle.

2. The 3-day moving average formed a bullish hammer candlestick pattern, which is typically a reversal pattern. We need to wait and observe over the next two to three weeks to see if a bottom can be established here, but this particular 3-day candlestick pattern is bullish.

3. We are still in a pattern of consecutive higher lows. From a higher timeframe perspective, assuming that the low of 80,005 is a local low, BTC is still technically making higher lows.

4. BTC has just tested the demand zone after two weeks , and we are essentially at a support level.

5. On the monthly timeframe, we are in a long-term upward parallel channel. This channel began in 2023, and we are still at the diagonal support level, which is essentially a bullish structure . This is a slow and steady bull market cycle, but this structure has not yet been broken.

6. On a longer timeframe, there is also an ascending parallel channel on the logarithmic scale, with diagonal support dating back to 2013. The structure remains technically intact; we just tested its lower edge.

7. There is also a diagonal line that acted as resistance in early 2021, late 2021, and early 2024. We broke through it at the end of 2024, tested it as support in early 2025 , and are now testing it again as support, which may just be another confirmation of resistance turning into support.

Momentum and oversold indicators

8. The weekly RSI has never been this low since the FDX crash . The only other times the weekly RSI has been this low were at the 2018 bear market bottom, the COVID bottom, and the mid-2022 3AC/Luna crash. We are currently roughly at COVID-era levels, but this is essentially the lowest weekly RSI since 2023. If you match these weekly RSI levels to a chart, you’ll find that this often coincides with the bottom of a bear market or a sharp drop like the COVID crash.

9. The daily RSI is at its lowest point in two and a half years; the last time it was at this level was in the summer of 2023. Statistical data suggests that when the BTC daily RSI falls below 21, the expected future returns appear favorable.

10. Another indicator is the distance from the Power Law, which is currently in the “buy zone”.

11. If you connect all the retracement bottoms in this cycle, you’ll find it’s a perfect diagonal support. Someone predicted the bottom might be around 84,000 when it was at 95,000, and we ultimately found support around 80,500.

12. The MACD of BTC on the 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day charts is at an all-time low.

13. Historically , the three times the 50-day moving average has fallen below the 200-day moving average have been excellent buying opportunities within the current cycle. Over 60% of the time, this has resulted in positive returns.

14. Interestingly, if you look at all the past instances where Bitcoin traded 3.5 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average, the only previous times this happened were during the bear market bottom in November 2018 and the COVID crash in March 2020.

15. If we look at cases with a drop of 4 standard deviations, this has only happened once before, during the COVID crash. We reached a similar level on November 21st, and the probability of this happening is less than 1%, making it an extremely unusual and sharp drop that indicates widespread market fear.

16. The Leading C indicator issued its first buy signal on the 3-day chart since the FTX crash, which typically only occurs in bear markets or at the bottom.

17. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently at the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average).

18. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently at both horizontal and diagonal support levels .

On-chain analysis and signs of surrender

19. Most of the recent sell-off did not come primarily from long-term holders and/or miners, but rather from traders and short-term holders .

20. The percentage of short-term holders in a profitable position is at its lowest level in five years, and has not been this low since 2019.

21. Supply from short-term holders is at a historical low .

22. The realized profit to loss ratio for short-term holders is also at its lowest level in five years, which means that the market is undergoing complete capitulation, especially from the perspective of short-term holders and traders.

23. The SOPR (cost-to-profit ratio) for short-term holders is starting to enter the buy signal zone .

24. Realized losses are at their highest level since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023, another sign of market capitulation.

25. The Puell multiple at a discount level (Puell multiple is the ratio of current miner revenue to the average of the past 365 days) is usually associated with a mid-term bottom.

26. Recent on-chain data shows that we have experienced the largest outflow of funds from exchanges in history. Looking back at the past four similar events, such fund flows usually mark the start of a bull market or the end of a bear market. In the following weeks or even months, the market often sees a significant bullish trend.

27. In addition, the on-chain Realized Net Profit and Loss metric has fallen to its lowest level since the FDX crash, suggesting that market sentiment may have bottomed out , creating conditions for a potential rebound.

28. SOPR is poised for a breakout . So far in this cycle, it has not reached levels associated with global tops.

29. SOPR remains in a bull market cycle structure. Since 2023, this indicator has never entered typical bear market territory, but has consistently rebounded around the 1 level.

Stablecoins and Derivatives Market

30. The stablecoin market is in a supercycle, with its size expanding continuously over the past three years. This trend is a bullish signal for the market because the increase in stablecoins means that investors also have more funds available to buy Bitcoin and ETH on dips.

31. The stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) is currently at its largest gap since 2022, further demonstrating the market’s potential buying power.

32. The stablecoin SSR ratio oscillation indicator has hit its lowest level since 2017.

33. Observing Bitcoin’s open interest, Bitfinex’s BTCUSD long positions are currently in the buy zone, a situation consistent with the multiple mid-term bottoms that have occurred during this period. Whales on Bitfinex are generally considered “smart money,” and historical data shows they tend to accurately predict market trends.

34. Stablecoins’ market dominance is currently at a level consistent with Bitcoin’s bottom in this cycle. The surge in USDT and USDC market share typically reflects investor fear. Historically, the three times USDT and USDC reached this level of dominance, the market was at a local mid-term bottom.

35. In recent weeks, the market has experienced the largest long liquidation since the FTX crash. This phenomenon is often seen as a “capitulation signal,” indicating that leveraged positions in the market have been significantly cleared.

36. In terms of liquidation distribution, the liquidation volume at the top (short selling direction) is currently significantly greater than that at the bottom (long selling direction).

37. According to CoinGlass data, there are currently more short positions than long positions in the market.

38. The bullish/bearish indicator reading is 0.93, which indicates that market sentiment is in a state of high panic.

Whale Dynamics and Institutional Behavior

39. Rumor has it that an “OG” whale that sold $1.2 billion worth of BTC in the past few weeks has finally sold out.

40. There have also been recent rumors that Tether sent $1 billion directly from the national treasury to a Bitfinex address, possibly for the purpose of purchasing BTC .

41. Some funds suffered significant losses on October 10th . If they are now forced to sell Bitcoin or Ethereum, this selling is more of a forced than voluntary act.

42. The Bgeometrics Demand Index is in the buy zone (the Bgeometrics Demand Index is an analytical tool primarily used to measure the level of demand for Bitcoin). The last time a similar situation occurred was in September 2024, when the market was also at a mid-term bottom.

43. In addition, the on-chain metrics NVT (Network Value to Transactions) and NVTS (NVT Signal) are currently showing a severely oversold condition , which historically is often associated with a mid-term bottom.

44. The Bitcoin sentiment indicator, the “Fear & Greed Index,” has now reached 10/100, the lowest value in this cycle, indicating that the market is in a state of extreme fear.

45. Social media sentiment also shows an extremely pessimistic tendency, with many KOLs sharing a large number of very pessimistic Bitcoin price charts on CT (CryptoTwitter).

46. There are also many videos on YouTube that are bearish on the market.

47. A large number of bearish tweets, articles, and blog posts are emerging.

48. Observing the traditional cycle top signals of Bitcoin, none of the 30 signals have been triggered so far, which means that the market has not yet reached the top area.

Price patterns and ETF flows

49. Last week, the $91,000 gap in CME Bitcoin futures was successfully filled.

50. The $2,800 gap in CME Ethereum futures has also been filled.

51. From a technical analysis perspective, there is a pattern known as the “Domed House and Three Peaks” , which is usually regarded as a corrective pattern and is often followed by a new bullish wave.

52. Some argue that the market trend in 2025, including current price fluctuations, may simply be a period of range-bound trading, laying the foundation for the next upward move. Another pattern worth noting is the “four bases and parabola” pattern, with the current market possibly in the middle of the fourth base phase. If this pattern holds true, Bitcoin could experience a parabolic rise in the future, reaching a high of $150,000 to $200,000.

53. Binance’s Bitcoin to stablecoin reserve ratio is currently at an all-time low , which is seen as a strong bullish signal .

54. Looking back at historical data, after the US government shutdown ended in 2019, Bitcoin bottomed out within 4 days. This year’s government shutdown ended in mid-November. If the $80,500 level on November 21st was the bottom, this bottoming time is very similar to the situation on the 9th day after the government reopened.

55. In the Bitcoin options market, put option buying dominates.

56. Meanwhile, the Put Skew indicator continues to rise, reflecting extreme fear in the market. At the same time, the implied volatility of put options (Put IV) is significantly higher than the implied volatility of call options (Call IV).

57. It is worth noting that this week also saw record trading volume for IBIT (the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF) put options.

58.1 The biggest pain points for Bitcoin options in late November and December were $102,000 and $99,000 respectively, far higher than the current market price.

The biggest pain point for ETH options is at $4,300 next June.

60. November 21st marked the highest trading volume in IBIT’s history, further confirming the view that the market has capitulated. Historical data shows that market capitulation is usually accompanied by extremely high trading volumes, representing a process of rebalancing the power between buyers and sellers.

61. In fact, not only did IBIT’s trading volume reach an all-time high, but if we consider the total trading volume of all BTC ETFs, this day also marks the highest ever.

62. Bitcoin prices bottomed out near the ETF cost base range (approximately $79,000 to $82,000) , a range that also aligns with the ETF’s realized price.

63. Furthermore, $80,200 (slightly below recent lows) is considered the true market average price for Bitcoin. Multiple price indicators overlap within the $79,000 to $83,000 range, including the ETF cost base, realized price, and market average price. This price overlap is generally considered a support area.

64. Further analysis of Bitcoin’s realized price distribution reveals that the $83,000 to $85,000 range is also a key support and resistance conversion area . Therefore, Bitcoin is more likely to find a medium-term bottom within this price range.

65. November 21st also marked an all-time high in trading volume for Hyperliquid BTC perpetual contracts. This phenomenon, echoing the surge in ETF trading volume, suggests the market may have entered a mid-term capitulation phase. Capitulation typically involves the exhaustion of selling pressure and may also signal the first rebound in market demand.

66. Currently, 98% of the assets under management (AUM) in ETFs are held by diamond traders . These funds are primarily designed for long-term holding, rather than short-term trading or speculation. Even after the recent 36% market decline, 98% of ETF AUM remains unsold, demonstrating strong long-term confidence in Bitcoin among ETF holders.

67. The proportion of Bitcoin supply held by ETFs is steadily increasing. Looking at data from the past two years, this proportion has grown from 3% to 7.1%, and may further climb to 15%, 20%, or even 25% in the future. This trend indicates that the Bitcoin market is experiencing a so-called “IPO moment.” During this phase, early investors (OGs) gradually exit, while passive inflows into ETFs continue to drive market accumulation. The fiat currency system holds a far greater money supply than the amount of Bitcoin held by Bitcoin OGs. By definition, the supply of Bitcoin is finite, while the funds available for purchasing Bitcoin through fiat currency and ETF systems are virtually unlimited.

68. The situation is similar for Ethereum (ETH). Over the past few years, the proportion of ETH held by ETFs has also been steadily increasing, regardless of market price fluctuations. This trend reflects institutional investors’ long-term bullish outlook on crypto assets.

Market Indicator Analysis

69.1 On November 21, trading volumes on Binance and Coinbase even surpassed those of October 10, which was already an extremely active trading day. This suggests that the market may have undergone a complete capitulation phase.

70. On Binance and Coinbase, Bitcoin’s order book has shown a bullish bias for the first time in weeks, at least in the short term. A similar market situation occurred when Bitcoin bottomed out in April 2025.

71. From a funding rate perspective, we are seeing the first negative value in weeks , indicating that market sentiment remains fearful. Many investors are choosing to short, believing prices will fall further.

72. For the past few weeks, Bitcoin has been trading at a discount on Coinbase, putting sustained downward pressure on the price. However, since November 21st, market sentiment has begun to ease, and prices have gradually normalized. Currently, the discount on Coinbase appears to have bottomed out and is returning to a neutral level. This could be another signal that Bitcoin’s price is approaching a medium-term bottom.

73. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s RSI relative to gold has fallen to a historical low for the bear market. Historical data shows that similar situations to gold have occurred during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, the global market bottoms of 2018 and 2015, and the crashes of 3AC, Luna, and FTX. If you believe the gap between Bitcoin and gold will eventually be closed, then the current market may provide bullish support.

74. Looking at the open interest (OI) data, we have just experienced the largest cleansing in this cycle, with OI falling from $37 billion to $29 billion, the fastest adjustment since the FTX crash.

75. Judging from the open interest (OI) of altcoins, October 10th was a large-scale shakeout in the altcoin market, and the bubble in most assets has been burst.

76. DAT’s net asset value (mNav) has fallen below 1 or slightly above 1. I believe this is a bullish signal because what was once considered a bubble in the market has been cleared out.

77. Some assets that were extremely overvalued in the past , such as MSTR’s mNav, have now fallen back to levels seen during the FTX crash. Historically, these levels are often associated with mid-term market bottoms.

78. Similarly, Meta Planet’s mNav, which once reached 23, has now fallen to 0.95. This adjustment suggests the market is returning to rationality. Nevertheless, Meta Planet is still borrowing funds through its Bitcoin positions to buy more Bitcoin, indicating that there is still some buying demand in the market.

79. Similarly, Ethereum’s mNav has also experienced a significant drop , further demonstrating that the market bubble has deflated. Currently, mNav below 1 is not a reason to be bearish on the market. While some believe this will prompt some DATs to sell Bitcoin or Ethereum to buy back shares, from a game theory perspective, those DATs hoping to gain a leading position in the industry clearly understand that short-term trading will damage their long-term reputation . They prefer to win market recognition through long-term holding.

80. While the Bitcoin lending industry is still in its early stages, it is gradually developing thanks to MSTR. I believe this trend will eventually exhibit parabolic growth, enabling MSTR to accumulate Bitcoin in a more sustainable way.

81. Bitcoin’s social risk indicator is zero, suggesting that retail investors have not yet entered the market on a large scale. While some might argue this is due to a lack of funds among retail investors, I believe this is precisely why Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market haven’t yet experienced a parabolic surge. Historically, this phenomenon has typically been triggered by a large influx of retail investors, a situation we haven’t seen in this cycle, indicating that the current cycle is primarily driven by DAT and institutions . I believe retail investors will return to the market in greater numbers in the future, so holding on now is a wise choice.

Macroeconomic and political factors

82. From a macroeconomic perspective, the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates, even though the current inflation rate remains above the 2% target. We need to recognize that the low volatility and slow pace of this cycle are largely due to the extremely tight macroeconomic environment, one of the most challenging macroeconomic backdrops in Bitcoin’s history and a major reason for the market’s difficult performance. At the start of this cycle, interest rates were 5.5%, and they remain above 4%, indicating that current macroeconomic conditions remain relatively tight. In past cryptocurrency cycles, interest rates typically ranged between 0% and 2.5%, with relatively looser conditions. Even in such a tight environment, Bitcoin’s rise from $15,000 to $125,000 is a remarkable achievement.

83. The probability of a December rate cut has risen sharply from 30% last week to 81%, which is usually good news for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

84. Daily trading volume on the S&P 500 reached its highest level since April last week. Historical data shows that similar surges in trading volume are often associated with local or medium-term market bottoms. The reason for this attention is that, ideally, the stock market also needs to maintain its upward momentum if Bitcoin prices are to rise further.

85. Similarly, daily trading volume on the Nasdaq 100 also reached its highest level since April. Multiple meetings on November 21 discussed the possibility of this point in time as a potential medium-term market bottom, and such a surge in trading volume is often associated with market bottoms.

86. Weekly trading volume for the S&P 500 is the third highest level since 2022.

87. The Nasdaq 100 index also saw weekly trading volume reach its third-highest level since 2022.

88. The Nasdaq 100 index found 支援 at the 100-day moving average and showed a bullish crossover signal with the MACD indicator.

89. Put option trading volume for the S&P 500 has reached its second-highest level in history . Historically, this has resulted in a 100% positive price performance one month later.

90. Last week, the S&P 500 opened more than 1% higher, but closed in negative territory. Historical data shows that this scenario leads to a price increase three weeks to a month later in 86% of cases.

91. The market is currently in a unique environment. The VIX index has climbed for the past four weeks, but the S&P 500 remains within 5% of its historical high. Historical data shows that when this situation occurs, there is an 80% probability of prices rising six months later and a staggering 93% probability of rising a year later.

92. The SPX’s RSI indicator has fallen below 35 for the first time in seven months. Historical data shows that under similar circumstances, the probability of a price increase is 93% after three months, 85% after six months, and 78% after one year.

93. Historically, when the SPX first falls below its 50-day moving average, the probability of a price increase is 71% after three months, six months, and nine months.

94. For Nasdaq, historical data shows that when the McClellan Oscillator falls below 62 (the McClellan Oscillator is a technical indicator used to analyze market breadth; it reflects overall market momentum by calculating and smoothing the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks each day), prices typically rise one week to one month later.

95. The AAI Bull/Bear Index is currently below -12, and historical data shows that in the three previous instances when this occurred, prices rose 100% after two months, three months, six months, nine months, and one year.

On November 21, 96.11, trading volume for SPXU (3x short S&P 500 ETF) exceeded $1 billion. Historical data shows that whenever this occurs, the market price rises a month later.

97. Last week, the proportion of oversold stocks increased significantly, which is usually associated with local or medium-term market bottoms.

98. The S&P 500 call/put ratio has exceeded 0.7 for two consecutive days . Historical data shows that under such circumstances, the market price has increased 100% of the time two months later.

99. Bitcoin prices are highly correlated with the growth of the global M2 money supply . Historically, Bitcoin’s rapid rise in 2017 and 2021 coincided with a parabolic increase in M2. In the current cycle, however, the slow rise in Bitcoin prices aligns with the moderate trend of M2 growth. If M2 growth accelerates in the future, Bitcoin prices may experience another rapid surge. From a broader historical perspective, so-called “market bubbles” often last longer than expected. Comparing the current market to the boom of the 1920s, the gold rush of the late 1970s, the Japanese asset price bubble, and the dot-com bubble, while also considering the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index since October 2022, reveals significant room for further market growth.

100. The S&P 500 has never reached its global peak when the ISM Manufacturing PMI was below 50. Currently, the ISM PMI is around 48, leading many to speculate that the business cycle may be entering an expansion phase, potentially further driving up the prices of stocks and risk assets such as Bitcoin.

101. Regarding the Mega 7 indicator, current market performance shows that resistance levels are turning into support levels. If we consider the Mega 7 as a market barometer, it currently shows no abnormal signals. In fact, since 2015, there have been multiple instances where a breakout of a previous high was followed by a pullback to support within four months, and the market is currently experiencing a similar pattern. Therefore, the market is not in an abnormal or bearish state; at least for now, it maintains a healthy trend.

102. There is a correlation between Bitcoin prices and the year-on-year growth of global M2 money supply . Historically, Bitcoin’s rapid rise in 2017 and 2021 was closely related to the parabolic growth rate of M2. In the current cycle, however, the slow rise in Bitcoin prices aligns with the stable trend of M2 growth. If M2 growth accelerates in the future, Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market may experience a new round of rapid growth. There are already some signs that M2 growth is accumulating momentum, but an acceleration of M2 growth is key to achieving parabolic price growth.

103. If the money supply continues to grow, the price of Bitcoin may gradually catch up with this trend and rise further.

104. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a significant factor influencing cryptocurrency prices. Currently, the DXY is at a key resistance level, an area that has acted as both resistance and support multiple times since 2015. Between 2015 and 2020, it primarily acted as resistance; while between 2022 and 2024, it repeatedly served as support. In early 2025, the DXY broke below this area and is now retesting this resistance level from below. Generally speaking, when the DXY is at a resistance level, it presents an ideal opportunity to buy risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.

105. The Federal Reserve plans to end quantitative easing (QT) in December 2025, a policy change widely considered positive for risk assets, including Bitcoin. While the policy won’t take immediate effect, generally speaking, quantitative easing (QE) typically helps cryptocurrency prices rise, while quantitative tightening can lead to a bear market. Historical data shows that the cryptocurrency market performed strongly when the Fed expanded its balance sheet in 2013, while experiencing a significant decline when it reduced its balance sheet in 2018. The Fed’s rapid balance sheet expansion in 2020 and 2021 coincided with the Bitcoin bull market. In 2022, the Fed began reducing its balance sheet, coinciding with a bear market in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

106. Many market analysts predict that some form of quantitative easing (QE) or implicit QE may return in 2026, with the Federal Reserve potentially expanding its balance sheet again. While this expansion may not be as large as it was after the pandemic, the policy is still considered to have a positive effect on the market. Historically, the last time the Fed announced quantitative tightening, the market experienced a so-called “QT-QE turnaround cleanse.” At that time, Bitcoin’s price initially fell but subsequently found support around $6,000 (ignoring the pandemic-induced crash). As the pace of QT slowed and QE began, Bitcoin’s price subsequently rallied.

107. One theory suggests that the Federal Reserve’s announcement of ending quantitative tightening could lead to a similar “QT-QE transition cleansing.” During this period, the market might experience a period of volatility, but once some form of quantitative easing (QE) is implemented, Bitcoin’s price could rebound strongly. This scenario could repeat itself.

108. From a higher-level political and administrative perspective, the US government is currently fully supporting the development of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, ETFs, and stablecoins. This is arguably one of the most supportive governments in cryptocurrency history, and this policy environment is expected to continue, providing long-term positive support for the cryptocurrency market.

109. The Trump administration aimed to promote economic growth, advocated reducing debt through economic growth, and criticized the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy as too tight. Overall, the Trump administration tended to pursue a more relaxed economic policy.

110. Furthermore, the Trump administration actively supported the development of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry , viewing it as a strategic national priority. For example, the United States launched the Genesis program, an initiative designed to further advance the AI industry, whose importance and urgency were comparable to the Manhattan Project (the development of nuclear weapons).

111. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has hinted in several interviews that he may ease bank regulations to increase lending to key sectors. This could not only prepare for future interest rate cuts but also further increase the money supply. He emphasized the importance of easing bank regulations and lowering capital rules, similar arguments have been made by the Chairman of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).

112. The Trump administration is committed to reducing housing costs in order to release trillions of dollars in home equity into the economy and markets. This is one of the White House’s current key objectives, aimed at translating this enormous wealth into economic dynamism.

113. The Trump family’s interests are highly aligned with this policy objective. They have significant investments in the cryptocurrency space, including the Trump meme coin and decentralized finance (DeFi) projects.

114. The Trump administration is also discussing issuing $2,000 stimulus checks to everyone, especially low- and lower-middle-income individuals. Looking back at 2020, the positive impact of $500 or $600 checks on asset prices was evident. If this policy is implemented, a $2,000 stimulus check would be significantly beneficial to asset prices, particularly the cryptocurrency market. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that this could take the form of tax rebates, but regardless of the form, it would be very beneficial to the market.

115. China is currently taking steps to end deflationary pressures that have affected its economy for years. Historically, when China’s economic stress index has reached a high level, it has usually been accompanied by some form of monetary easing.

116. Japan announced a $135 billion economic stimulus package , which could further boost liquidity and asset prices in global markets.

Conclusions and Risks
Despite the many positive signals in the market, we also need to pay attention to potential risks. Currently, the market faces four major risks: The Mega 7 AI bubble in the stock market may burst suddenly. Bitcoin whales may further intensify their selling pressure. A stronger dollar could put pressure on risk assets. The business cycle may reverse, and liquidity may deteriorate further.

I do not agree with the view that the market cycle is only four years. I think this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years, and may continue until 2026.

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