温馨提示：本站仅提供公开网络链接索引服务，不存储、不篡改任何第三方内容，所有内容版权归原作者所有
AI智能索引来源：http://www.bee.com/vi/64227.html
点击访问原文链接

Predictive Markets Stir Up the Trillion-Dollar Gambling Industry, Facing Pursuit from the Old Order | Bee Network

进入原网站 导航首页
Predictive Markets Stir Up the Trillion-Dollar Gambling Industry, Facing Pursuit from the Old Order | Bee Network Login Tin tức thịnh hành Nền tảng khởi chạy meme Các tác nhân trí tuệ nhân tạo (AI) DeSci TopChainExplorer Dành cho Newbee Tiền xu 100 lần Trò chơi Ong Trang web cần thiết ỨNG DỤNG Phải Có Người nổi tiếng về tiền điện tử DePIN Tân binh cần thiết Máy dò bẫy Công cụ cơ bản Trang web nâng cao Trao đổi Công cụ NFT CHÀO, Đăng xuất Vũ trụ Web3 Trò chơi Ứng dụng phi tập trung (DApp) Tổ ong Nền tảng phát triển QUẢNG CÁO Tìm kiếm Tiếng Anh Nạp xu Đăng nhập Tải xuống Đại học Web3 Trò chơi Ứng dụng phi tập trung (DApp) Tổ ong QUẢNG CÁO trang chủ•Phân tích•Predictive Markets Stir Up the Trillion-Dollar Gambling Industry, Facing Pursuit from the Old Order Predictive Markets Stir Up the Trillion-Dollar Gambling Industry, Facing Pursuit from the Old OrderPhân tích2 tháng trước更新Wyatt 10.520 27 Author｜Azuma (@azuma_eth)

The thriving prediction market is now facing a real challenge.

On January 9th, US local time, the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC) issued cease-and-desist orders to prediction market platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, demanding these platforms stop offering sports event prediction contracts to residents of the state. The reason cited is that these companies are engaging in illegal gambling operations without obtaining state licenses.

In the notification letters, the SWC accused the three companies of illegally offering sports betting products under the guise of “event contracts.” Although these platforms are registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as designated contract markets, according to Tennessee law, any entity offering sports event betting services within the state must hold a license issued by the SWC.

The SWC demanded that Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com cease all activities in the state, close open contracts, and refund resident deposits by January 31st. Failure to comply may result in civil penalties of up to $25,000 per violation and even potential criminal charges.

The Rapidly Growing Sports Betting Chợ To understand why Tennessee is taking such a hard stance against prediction market platforms, we need to start with the current state of the US sports betting market.

Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the federal law, the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), which had prohibited commercial sports betting, on May 14, 2018, individual states have gained the authority to decide whether to legalize sports betting within their jurisdictions. Currently, sports betting in the US is regulated by state-level agencies responsible for licensing, compliance, and enforcement, with each state setting its own tax regime, market entry barriers, and responsible gambling requirements.

According to reports from the sports betting media Legal Sports Report, as of now, 38 US states (including Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico) have legalized sports betting services (both online and retail), with 30 states allowing online sports betting services — Tennessee is one of them and is the first state to allow only online sports betting while prohibiting physical betting venues.

Home to popular leagues like the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL, the US is undoubtedly a sports powerhouse, and sports betting is a gambling service clearly bất chấpned and heavily taxed by state governments.

Statistics from another major sports betting media outlet, Sports Book Review (see chart below, data as of August 2025), show that since the regulatory opening in 2018, the total betting handle and tax revenue of the US sports betting market have experienced remarkable growth over the past few years — in 2024, the total market handle reached $148.74 billion, contributing $2.82 billion in taxes; in just the first eight months of 2025, the total handle ($121.22 billion) and tax revenue ($2.68 billion) have already approached the full-year 2024 levels.

Focus on Tennessee: What Does Sports Betting Mean? Now, let’s focus on Tennessee, the protagonist of this incident.

In 2019, Tennessee passed the Tennessee Sports Gaming Act, formally legalizing sports betting. Although then-Governor Bill Lee had reservations about gambling, he allowed the bill to pass without exercising his veto power. Between 2021 and 2022, the Tennessee General Assembly passed laws establishing a dedicated regulatory council to oversee licensing and regulation. This council was initially called the Sports Wagering Advisory Council and later renamed the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC), the same body that issued the cease-and-desist orders to Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com.

Currently, the SWC is Tennessee’s sole sports betting regulator, responsible for operational licensing, compliance oversight, rule-making, and enforcement. The SWC stipulates that all sports betting providers must obtain an SWC license to offer services in the state. To date, a total of 11 licenses have been issued (see chart above); only residents aged 21 and over can access related services and must pass geolocation verification to ensure bets are placed within the state. Regarding taxation, the state levies a 1.85% tax on the total handle — initially, a revenue-based tax scheme was used, but this was changed to a handle-based tax after 2023.

The sports betting market contributes significant tax revenue to Tennessee. Statistics from Sports Book Review (see chart below, data as of July 2025) show that in 2024, Tennessee’s sports betting market handle reached $5.268 billion, contributing $97.16 million in taxes. In the first seven months of 2025, the handle has already reached $2.4 billion, with tax contributions amounting to $56.4 million.

However, this massive and still-growing pie is now being gradually eroded by platforms like Polymarket.

How Are Prediction Markets Eroding the Old World? On December 3, 2025, Polymarket announced it had received CFTC approval to return to the US market after nearly four years. Even earlier, Kalshi and Crypto.com’s prediction market platform, Truth Predict, had already opened their doors to US users under CFTC approval.

The current regulatory landscape is that sports betting is clearly classified as a gambling service, regulated by individual states. However, prediction market platforms like Polymarket are generally viewed as new entities offering “event contract” trading services. “Event contracts” are considered financial derivatives in terms of asset nature, falling under the CFTC’s regulatory purview. This allows prediction markets to bypass the stringent regulations governing gambling services — they don’t need state licenses, don’t have to follow user protection rules like addiction controls, and don’t pay high gambling taxes to states. Yet, they can offer services similar to betting on sports event outcomes, objectively creating a form of “regulatory arbitrage.”

If prediction markets remained small-scale experiments, it might be tolerable. But the reality is that the growth rate of prediction markets is even more staggering than the already impressive growth of the sports betting market — in 2025, the total trading volume of prediction markets was approximately $40 billion, a roughly 400% increase from $9 billion in 2024. Data Dashboards‘ data dashboard compiled on Dune (see chart below) shows that sports-related event contracts have long become the category with the highest trading volume share in prediction markets.

The capital markets have already sensed the growing threat Polymarket poses to traditional sports betting services. Two giants of the sports betting market, DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment, recorded declines of 11.7% and 16.1% respectively over the past year — during the same period, the US stock market was in a bull run, with the Dow Jones up 12.97%, the Nasdaq up 20.36%, and the S&P 500 up 16.39% for the year; meanwhile, the sports betting market size continued its eight-year upward trend.

Whether it’s Tennessee, which relies on sports betting as a tax revenue source, or the capital forces that effectively control the sports betting market, it’s difficult for them to agree to let this new player, the prediction market, take a slice of the pie.

Friction Is Not Isolated: How Are Prediction Markets Fighting Back? In fact, Tennessee’s ban on prediction markets is not an isolated incident. States including Maryland, Ohio, Illinois, New Jersey, Nevada, Montana, Michigan, and Connecticut have all cracked down on prediction markets for similar reasons. Since Polymarket only returned to the US market in December last year, Kalshi has borne the brunt of more regulatory pressure.

Để đáp lại, Kalshi has filed lawsuits against three states — Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland — arguing that it “complies with higher-priority federal regulations and therefore does not need to comply with state-level regulations.” However, the results have not been ideal.

The lawsuit in Nevada progressed first. The district court initially sided with Kalshi but later, in November last year, ruled against Kalshi. Judge Andrew Gordon determined that sports-related event contracts on Kalshi were very similar to sports betting wagers and thus fell under Nevada’s gambling regulations. Kalshi has appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. In New Jersey, the district court sided with Kalshi, but the state’s gambling regulator has appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. In Maryland, the district court sided with the gambling regulator’s request. Judge Adam B. ruled that Kalshi failed to prove “Congress has clearly and manifestly intended to deprive states of the power to regulate gambling.” Kalshi has appealed this decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit. The law firm Benesch commented on this, stating that as the nationwide debate continues, similar divisions are expected at the appellate court level, setting the stage for the Supreme Court to resolve this issue in the coming years… If appellate courts happen to consistently support Kalshi’s position, other prediction markets might emulate its model and proceed with similar businesses before the Supreme Court hears the matter. However, if appellate courts reach different conclusions, companies in similar situations might wait for clearer legal signals before acting. Regardless, Kalshi’s lawsuits will create a precedent with direct and profound implications for the national sports betting and gambling industry.

In summary, the question of whether prediction markets need to follow state gambling regulations remains unresolved for now. The fundamental conflict lies in the similarity of the products/services offered by prediction markets and sports betting, contrasted with the differences in their regulatory requirements.

This is a tug-of-war over regulatory fit. Until appellate courts or even the Supreme Court provide a final ruling, the gray area between prediction markets and sports betting will persist, and regulatory conflicts will be hard to avoid. In the short term, states will likely continue to defend their regulatory authority and tax base through enforcement and litigation. Meanwhile, prediction market platforms will attempt to use federal compliance and innovation narratives as shields to fight for greater survival space.

Recommended Reading:

《Why Prediction Markets Are Truly Not Gambling Platforms》

Bài viết này được lấy từ internet: Predictive Markets Stir Up the Trillion-Dollar Gambling Industry, Facing Pursuit from the Old Order

Related: AI Kills Miners: “Energy Run” Tears Opens a New Cycle, What Crossroads Are Mining Companies Standing At? On November 18, amid a gloomy global financial market, Crypto once again experienced a “Black Tuesday,” with BTC falling below the $90,000 mark during the day. It has fallen by about 30% from its historical high of $126,000 a little over a month ago, entering a technical bear market. At the same time, discussions about the BTC shutdown price, mining company exits, and cyclical reshuffling have recently emerged. However, unlike in the past, the core assumption of this round of discussions is no longer the internal supply and demand of Crypto, but rather a new, more macro-level fact: AI and Crypto are now competing for electricity in the same energy pool. It can be said that in the past year, from policy subsidies to energy/land allocation to marginal revenue differences,…

Phân tích #Tiền mã hóa ## định nghĩaThị trường #© 版权声明Mảng 上一 hình ảnh Two Years of Bitcoin ETFs: From Icebreaking to Confluence in the Financialization Journey 下一 hình ảnh Tiger Research: Why Do Financial Institutions Prefer Selective Privacy? 相关文章 24H Hot Currencies and News | Trump Signs Executive Order to Evaluate Strategic National Digital Asset Reserves; Trump S 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 36.471 B² Network Mid-Year Review and Outlook: How B² Network Reshapes Bitcoin’s Usage Landscape 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 27.601 2 Polymarket, OKX, Tether, and others are making a comeback to the US market, with four key paths pointing the way. 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 18.317 1 Crypto Stock Weekly Report: Metaplanet Halts Bitcoin Purchases for Two Consecutive Weeks; BitMine’s Total ETH Holdings Increase to Over 3.236 Million (October 21st) 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 17.047 “Painting the door” twice a day: In a hellish market, some people can still make $5 million 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 18.824 Learning from history: Summary and enlightenment of the bear markets in the U.S. stock market over the past 50 years 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 35.474 3 Bài viết mới nhất Did Jane Street “Manipulate” BTC? Decoding the AP System, Understanding the Power Struggle Behind ETF Creation and Redemption Pricing 16 giờ trước 536 Stop Comparing Bitcoin to Gold—It’s Now a High-Volatility Software Stock 16 giờ trước 645 Matrixport Research: $25 Billion Gamma Unwinding Imminent, Liquidity Yet to Return Behind the Rebound 16 giờ trước 594 ERC-5564: Ethereum’s Stealth Era Has Arrived, Receiving Addresses No Longer ‘Exposed’ 16 giờ trước 511 Hong Kong Regulatory Green Light: Asseto Enables DL Holdings to Achieve Compliance for Two RWA Business Implementations 16 giờ trước 563 Trang web phổ biếnTempoLighterGAIBMáy bay lượnPlanckRaylsBCPokerVooi Bee.com Cổng thông tin Web3 lớn nhất thế giới Đối tác đồng xuCá chép Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive Giáp Tải xuống Bee Network APP và bắt đầu hành trình web3 Giấy trắng Vai trò Câu hỏi thường gặp © 2021–2026. Tất cả quyền được bảo lưu. Chính sách bảo mật | Điều khoản dịch vụ Tải xuống ứng dụng Bee Network và bắt đầu hành trình web3 Cổng thông tin Web3 lớn nhất thế giới Đối tác CoinCarp Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive Armors Giấy trắng Vai trò Câu hỏi thường gặp © 2021–2026. Tất cả quyền được bảo lưu. Chính sách bảo mật | Điều khoản dịch vụ Tìm kiếm Tìm kiếmTrong trang webOnChainXã hộiTin tức 热门推荐: Thợ săn airdrop Phân tích dữ liệu Người nổi tiếng về tiền điện tử Máy dò bẫy Tiếng Việt English 繁體中文 简体中文 日本語 العربية 한국어 Bahasa Indonesia हिन्दी اردو Русский Tiếng Việt

智能索引记录