温馨提示:本站仅提供公开网络链接索引服务,不存储、不篡改任何第三方内容,所有内容版权归原作者所有
AI智能索引来源:http://www.bee.com/vi/64038.html
点击访问原文链接

Who is placing contrarian bets in prediction markets? | Bee Network

Who is placing contrarian bets in prediction markets? | Bee Network Login Tin tức thịnh hành Nền tảng khởi chạy meme Các tác nhân trí tuệ nhân tạo (AI) DeSci TopChainExplorer Dành cho Newbee Tiền xu 100 lần Trò chơi Ong Trang web cần thiết ỨNG DỤNG Phải Có Người nổi tiếng về tiền điện tử DePIN Tân binh cần thiết Máy dò bẫy Công cụ cơ bản Trang web nâng cao Trao đổi Công cụ NFT CHÀO, Đăng xuất Vũ trụ Web3 Trò chơi Ứng dụng phi tập trung (DApp) Tổ ong Nền tảng phát triển QUẢNG CÁO Tìm kiếm Tiếng Anh Nạp xu Đăng nhập Tải xuống Đại học Web3 Trò chơi Ứng dụng phi tập trung (DApp) Tổ ong QUẢNG CÁO trang chủPhân tích•Văn bản chính Who is placing contrarian bets in prediction markets?Phân tích2 tháng trước更新Wyatt 12.146 23 Author|Golem (@web3_con quỷ)

This week, I wrote an article reviewing absurd event contracts on Polymarket, pointing out that betting on some seemingly utterly ridiculous contracts at this moment could be profitable.

This led me to ponder: who exactly is betting against “common sense,” providing the market with “free money”?

Bets that go against us smart people are not impossible; there are certainly some who firmly believe in their judgment (for example, some still believe the Earth is flat). However, a prediction market is not a “greater fool market.” I believe when players use real money to predict whether an event will occur, they strive to think as “rational actors,” meaning their decisions are the most economical and profitable. Therefore, from this perspective, users betting Yes on seemingly impossible event contracts must also have some profit-making strategy; they are not fools simply providing us with “high-certainty” investment opportunities.

After consideration and discussion, I believe those providing counterparty liquidity in these absurd event markets likely fall into the following three categories (this article aims to spark discussion; feedback and corrections are welcome on X @web3_golem):

Lottery Players The logic of lottery players is simple: they focus solely on odds, aiming for a small stake to win big.

Sometimes, reality is far more bizarre than we imagine; even seemingly absurd events can happen. Moreover, while prediction markets settle based on real-world outcomes, settlement results can sometimes be distorted from reality due to settlement conditions, system failures, etc. Polymarket has had multiple instances where results settled differently from reality due to issues with UMA’s dispute resolution mechanism. A recent example is Polymarket ruling that the US military action in Venezuela did not constitute an “invasion.”

Thus, long-tail odds deviations appear. Even for events with extremely low probability, the Yes side might still have a 1%-3% price. As long as the odds are high enough, “lottery players” will buy, becoming one of the firm bottom bids.

But actually, this “lottery player” psychology is rational. For example, in the event contract “Will Putin step down before the end of 2026?”, driven by common sense, most people buy “No,” and the probability already reflects people’s attitude. However, the Yes side still has a 10% probability. This means if you bet $10 and Putin actually steps down before the end of 2026, you would get $100 back—a 10x return. So why not gamble?

Furthermore, lottery players don’t necessarily place heavy bets on a single market. Since prediction markets are not short of such high-odds events, by casting a wide net and hitting the jackpot a few times, there’s still a chance to recoup costs or even profit.

They anticipate black swan events more than normal people. Therefore, they are happy to provide buy-side liquidity on the Yes side of “counter-intuitive” markets (Polymarket sometimes offers maker rewards and holding rewards in certain markets, but this is not the main driver for lottery players).

Bots If an event contract itself has high certainty, the entry of tail-end players’ funds can push one side’s probability to 99%-100% before settlement. The existence of “lottery players” can partly explain why there are still players taking the Yes side sell orders in these “counter-intuitive” markets (Odaily Note: Because Polymarket uses a shared order book, meaning when a $0.99 buy order appears on the No side, a corresponding $0.01 sell order appears on the Yes side). But they are always a minority and cannot explain why these markets still have large trading volumes and good depth.

So, who else injects substantial liquidity into these markets? The answer is bots.

Chợ-making bots on Polymarket have developed quite rapidly. Bots using the Polymarket API for automated trading actively monitor all newly created markets and are often among the first participants. These bots can profit by actively trading in these markets.

In these “counter-intuitive” markets, when the No side price is $0.99, due to the shared order book, $0.01 sell orders appear on the Yes side. Market-making bots, like “lottery players,” will take these $0.01 sell orders. But immediately after, they place sell orders on the Yes side at $0.02, $0.03, or even higher, waiting for “lottery players” or other bots to fill them. Correspondingly, buy orders at $0.98, $0.97, or even lower will appear on the No side (Odaily Note: again due to the shared order book). Thus, the order book gains significant depth.

However, after communicating with the mật mã VC Jsquare team (they invested in the prediction market aggregator Rocket), they believe there aren’t many bots executing this specific strategy in the market. In these “counter-intuitive” markets, the speculative psychology of “lottery players” or regular players is enough to support most of the opposing bets.

The existence of some wash trading bots also provides market liquidity and trading volume for these “counter-intuitive” and relatively niche markets (compared to events like the US election). One wash trading bot places a $0.02 buy order on the Yes side, and another wash trading bot places a corresponding $0.98 buy order on the No side to match it.

This behavior is mainly to farm potential future prediction market airdrops. In high-frequency markets, orders might be matched by other players, so these “counter-intuitive” event contracts are ideal tools for wash trading.

Prediction Platforms Besides the “lottery players” and bots mentioned above, the prediction platforms themselves also contribute significantly to the liquidity of these markets.

Polymarket’s mechanism includes two liquidity incentives: maker rewards and holding rewards. Maker rewards mean that in some specific markets, players receive rewards simply for placing orders within the maximum specified spread. Holding rewards mean that in some specific markets, players holding shares (Yes or No) can receive a 4% annualized holding reward.

The highlighted area indicates the maximum spread range for maker rewards.

According to statistics, Polymarket has invested approximately $10 million in market maker incentives. At its peak, it paid over $50,000 daily to maintain order book liquidity. Now, these incentives have decreased to just $0.025 per $100 traded.

These investments have indeed been effective, driving trading in many “counter-intuitive” markets. For example, the event contract “Will Putin step down before the end of 2026?” has already seen over $1.3 million in trading volume. Holding shares in this contract yields a 4% annualized reward. For players holding Yes shares, this effectively translates to a 14% annualized return (10% tail-end profit + 4% platform reward), which is highly attractive. For players holding No shares, the maker rewards and holding rewards also hedge some of the risk.

There is also speculation that, beyond openly providing liquidity incentives, prediction markets themselves act as market makers, providing liquidity for these “counter-intuitive,” niche markets to achieve advertising and marketing effects. But this is pure speculation and open for discussion.

Bài viết này được lấy từ internet: Who is placing contrarian bets in prediction markets?

Related: OKX Star’s Year-End Message to Global Users: Steady Progress Leads to Financial Freedom This is exactly the direction we have been focusing on in 2025. First, I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to our customers, partners, and regulatory bodies worldwide. A secure and healthy crypto ecosystem is never the result of any single party building it alone. Only when responsibility and collaboration are seen as part of an open system, rather than as limitations that hinder its operation, can an open system truly thrive and go far. In 2025, OKX achieved valuable growth, thereby continuously raising the bar for core industry standards in reliability, transparency, security, and accessibility. On our journey into the future, the following areas are crucial to me and my team: Reliability: The First Prerequisite for “Financial Freedom” The repeated market volatility in 2025 largely exposed the failures…

Phân tích #Airdrop #Tiền mã hóa #Thị trường #Công cụ ## web3© 版权声明Mảng 上一 hình ảnh Can Retail Investors Also Invest in Star Robot Companies? Virtuals Titan's First Project XMAQUINA New Token Offering Guide 下一 hình ảnh 24H Hot Cryptocurrencies and Key News|Prince Group Founder Chen Zhi Deported to China; Polymarket Rules US Military Venezuela Operation Does Not Constitute "Invasion" (January 8) 相关文章 Brevis’s token launch is imminent: community incentives account for 32.2%, and airdrop registration is coming soon. 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 14.563 1 The acceleration of U.S. encryption policy: 9 actions in 20 days, which areas will benefit?Recommended Articles 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 25.207 Một bài đọc phải đọc trước cuộc bầu cử Hoa Kỳ: Dưới đây là tất cả những diễn biến bất ngờ mà bạn cần biết 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 95.798 15 Tổng quan về các dự án demo ALL13 Demo Day 11 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 40.960 4 Bitmain’s “Revenge”: How Expelled Miners Stifled America’s Energy Supply for AI 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 16.972 1 US stocks sprint toward “never closing”: Why did Nasdaq launch a “5×23-hour” trading experiment? 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 14.803 Bee.com Cổng thông tin Web3 lớn nhất thế giới Đối tác đồng xuCá chép Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive Giáp Tải xuống Bee Network APP và bắt đầu hành trình web3 Giấy trắng Vai trò Câu hỏi thường gặp © 2021–2026. Tất cả quyền được bảo lưu. Chính sách bảo mật | Điều khoản dịch vụ Tải xuống ứng dụng Bee Network và bắt đầu hành trình web3 Cổng thông tin Web3 lớn nhất thế giới Đối tác CoinCarp Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive Armors Giấy trắng Vai trò Câu hỏi thường gặp © 2021–2026. Tất cả quyền được bảo lưu. Chính sách bảo mật | Điều khoản dịch vụ Tìm kiếm Tìm kiếmTrong trang webOnChainXã hộiTin tức 热门推荐: Thợ săn airdrop Phân tích dữ liệu Người nổi tiếng về tiền điện tử Máy dò bẫy Tiếng Việt English 繁體中文 简体中文 日本語 العربية 한국어 Bahasa Indonesia हिन्दी اردو Русский Tiếng Việt

智能索引记录