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Kalshi has assembled a prediction market consortium with Coinbase, Robinhood, and others, aiming to end the “casino theory.” | Bee Network

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The prediction market is undergoing a new transformation!

Just yesterday, Kalshi, one of the two giants in the prediction market, joined forces with Crypto.com, Robinhood, Coinbase, Underdog, and other platforms to establish the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM) . This is Kalshi’s first joint action to address regulatory pressure since being embroiled in the “market-making” crisis. Following a stay of proceedings against Kalshi by Federal Judge Victor Bolden in Connecticut , this move is undoubtedly a new attempt at a “backdoor” approach—as Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated: “The CPM aims to give a voice to the prediction market and resist negative traditional lobbying groups.” To some extent, the establishment of the Coalition for Prediction Chợs also marks a step towards the prediction market sector moving from the mật mã industry to a larger stage. Odaily will provide a brief analysis of this event and its potential impact in this article.

The Hidden Battle Between Prediction Markets and Traditional Gambling: Using Industry Associations to Counter Traditional Lobbying We have previously provided a detailed introduction and analysis of prediction markets in several articles (recommended reading : “The Future Debate of Prediction Markets: Left is Casino, Right is News” Và “Why Prediction Markets Are Really Not Gambling Platforms” ). The reason why Kalshi had to unite with a group of “big players” such as Coinbase and Robinhood to establish the CPM prediction market alliance is relatively simple— either they have common interests or they have common enemies.

Now, the biggest enemy facing prediction market platforms like Kalshi is not regulatory agencies, but the traditional gambling industry .

Dựa theo an article by Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, “In recent months, numerous lobbying groups have attacked the prediction market, spreading misinformation about how it operates and is regulated.” The crux of the problem is that the prediction market’s “cake” has become an obstacle to the “livelihood” of others—traditional betting platforms in the United States.

After all, this is an emerging sector with an annual trading volume of over $150 billion. Last month, Kalshi and Polymarket’s total trading volume approached $10 billion, and both of their valuations have exceeded $10 billion. Kalshi’s latest Series E funding round raised $1 billion, valuing the company at $11 billion; Polymarket previously completed a $2 billion funding round from ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, and is now seeking a new round of funding with a valuation of $12-15 billion.

Based on current information, Kalshi and many other exchanges and trading platforms entering the prediction market are using a strategy similar to industry associations and lobbying to address their regulatory crisis. Traditional betting platforms are lobbying local governments to pressure them because they cannot tolerate the prediction market taking away their user market share. So, I’ll “fight fire with fire” and use industry associations to gather all available forces to strive for the broadest possible unified alliance.

The investigations and user lawsuits launched by local regulators in Connecticut and Nevada against Kalshi are actually driven by the jobs and high tax revenues provided by the gambling industry, which supports local finances.

On this point, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour sees it very clearly. As he puts it, just as bank lobbying groups attack cryptocurrencies as “insecure,” attacks on prediction markets are not to protect consumers, but to protect monopolies and the profits they fear losing.

The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is in turmoil, all for gain.

Faced with the rapidly developing “emerging industry” and platform of prediction markets, whose valuations can increase tenfold within a few months, the monopolistic companies of the traditional gambling industry are naturally unwilling to be quietly swept into the dustbin of history.

The reality is that, as an industry distinct from traditional gambling, the actual demand in the market is far stronger than people realize, and the information value it reflects is far more important than most people think.

Predictions indicate rapid market penetration in the US: Nearly 50% of users are under 45 years old. Dựa theo the official introduction of the Prediction Market Consortium (CPM),

Forecast markets have become one of the most accurate and easy-to-use tools for the public to understand ever-changing economic, cultural, and political trends; nearly half of U.S. citizens under the age of 45 have used forecast markets, and the market continues to expand at an accelerating pace. In October of this year, the market valuation was projected to reach $28 billion. The forecasting market outperformed traditional polls by about 30%. More than 70% of Americans believe that market predictions should not be treated as gambling.

In addition to the above, the prediction market differs from the traditional gambling industry in the following three aspects:

First, prediction markets have no “house” and no penalty for winning (like in a casino). Prediction markets aggregate information from thousands of people to generate real-time probabilities of outcomes and should be considered more analytical than gambling. Participation in prediction markets requires knowledge and analysis similar to financial investment, rather than purely probability-based gambling. Prediction markets create public information value by generating predictions useful to the media, alliances, and owners (such as assisting in policy decision-making, public opinion screening, and event prediction).

Secondly, as a CFTC-designated contract thương trường, Kalshi enjoys exclusive federal jurisdiction. In short, local law has no right to determine the legality of the business operations of prediction market platforms like Kalshi. “Prediction markets deserve the same rigor as modern financial markets—clear rules and federal regulation. The best way to protect consumers is to subject these markets to federal regulation and establish consistent user protection measures.”

Third, prediction markets cover a wider and more diverse range of fields and can generate public information value. “Millions of Americans have become active users of prediction markets, which have become the most powerful way to leverage the wisdom of the masses and often outperform traditional polls. Economists, news networks (CNN, CNBC), journalists, policymakers, and readers now rely on prediction markets to obtain quality information from the cacophony of public opinion.”

Kalshi’s strategy of alliances and counter-alliances: combining top-level approaches with grassroots power. It’s clear that, faced with the tightening “regulatory chains” from local authorities, Kalshi’s solution is to break through in a different direction—

On the one hand, by establishing the Prediction Market Consortium (CPM), Kalshi emphasized that he would go forward to protect the industry’s transparency, market integrity, and customer protection standards;

On the other hand, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour reiterated the scope of jurisdiction, bất chấpning the prediction market as a new industry distinct from the local gaming industry, and suggesting that the federal government may help it escape the quagmire of litigation and the regulatory trap of local protectionism.

Unlike Polymarket, which focuses more on providing content for on-chain event prediction and returned to the US market through the acquisition of derivatives exchange QCX, Kalshi, which has always emphasized “compliance,” values the long-term stable operation of its business. After completing a financing round with a valuation of $11 billion, it cannot and will not allow itself to face countless regulatory obstacles on its path to commercial success.

This may also be why Kalshi chose to join forces with industry giants such as Coinbase, Robinhood, Crypto.com, and Underdog to launch the prediction market alliance—it requires both the alignment of interests among peers and a unified front against external forces; it also requires “making things big” and “getting through to higher levels,” involving federal government regulatory agencies to highlight his status and position as an “industry innovation leader.”

Conclusion: The prediction market will surpass the gambling industry and grow into a “new internet track”. In closing, I’d like to conclude with two interesting recent anecdotes about Kalshi and Polymarket, the two “prediction market oligarchs”—

One incident involved Matt Huang, co-founder of Paradigm, the lead investor in Kalshi , who recently criticized a bug in Polymarket’s transaction data, alleging “double counting.” This was subsequently clarified by deployer, co-founder of the AI brokerage platform Bankr: “Polymarket’s transaction data is accurate; Paradigm is smearing its competitor because of its investment in Kalshi.” This makes one sigh that real-world business warfare is often so straightforward; even a rising star with a valuation of billions cannot escape the cliché of “spreading negativity and engaging in verbal battles online.”

Another point is that Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour recently stated on the 20VC podcast that the rivalry between Kalshi and Polymarket is more like a contest between sports legends, such as NFL quarterback stars “Tom Brady vs. Eli Manning,” or in the football world, “Messi vs. Ronaldo,” adding that “the prediction market industry is maturing faster due to competition.”

After prediction market betting events extended far beyond sports events and the crypto space, this new species, combining news products, trading instruments, and competitive games, is gradually separating itself from the cryptocurrency field, becoming the next “new internet track,” just as Uber, Didi, and Meituan pioneered the sharing economy.

As for the traditional gambling industry, which is inefficient, a zero-sum game, and lacks any growth potential, it may eventually be defeated, replaced, and crushed into a pile of mud on the “golden road of the industry” by the prediction market.

Bài viết này được lấy từ internet: Kalshi has assembled a prediction market consortium with Coinbase, Robinhood, and others, aiming to end the “casino theory.”

Related: Web3 Beginner Series: Want to Get Rich by Luck? Let’s Talk About Blockchain “Credential Striking”

So here’s the question: Can I write a program to generate random addresses like crazy, and maybe I’ll stumble upon a rich address? What is “address collision”? Plain explanation Imagine this: There are 10^48 lockers in the world (this is 1 followed by 48 zeros). There are approximately 100 million lockers containing money. You now need to randomly guess a cabinet number to see if you can win a prize. This is the “address collision” in blockchain—randomly generating addresses in the hope of colliding with an address that has a balance. How are blockchain addresses generated? Simplified process: 1. Generate a random number (private key) 2. Calculate the public key using mathematical formulas. 3. Hash the public key to obtain the address. It’s that simple! An address is generated instantly.…

 

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