温馨提示：本站仅提供公开网络链接索引服务，不存储、不篡改任何第三方内容，所有内容版权归原作者所有
AI智能索引来源：http://www.bee.com/ko/64629.html
点击访问原文链接

Tiger Research: Policy Catalysts and Liquidity Expansion Lock Bitcoin Valuation at $185,500 for Q1 2026 | Bee Network

进入原网站 导航首页
Tiger Research: Policy Catalysts and Liquidity Expansion Lock Bitcoin Valuation at $185,500 for Q1 2026 | Bee Network Login 인기 뉴스 밈 런치패드 AI 에이전트 DeSci 탑체인 익스플로러 뉴비의 경우 100x 코인 꿀벌 게임 필수 웹사이트 필수 앱 암호화폐 유명인 드핀 루키 에센셜 함정 탐지기 기본 도구 고급 웹사이트 교환 NFT 도구 안녕, 로그아웃 웹3 유니버스 계략 DApp 꿀벌 하이브 성장하는 플랫폼 기원 후 찾다 영어 코인 충전 로그인 다운로드 웹3 유니 계략 DApp 꿀벌 하이브 기원 후 집•분석•본문 Tiger Research: Policy Catalysts and Liquidity Expansion Lock Bitcoin Valuation at $185,500 for Q1 2026분석1개월 전업데이트와이엇 9,265 20 주요 시사점 Macro Stability, Momentum Slows: The Fed’s rate-cutting cycle and M2 money supply growth remain on track. However, $4.57 billion in ETF outflows have impacted short-term price action. Progress on the CLARITY Act could be a key catalyst for attracting major banks. On-Chain Indicators Shift to Neutral: Buy-side demand around $84,000 has formed a solid bottom support; meanwhile, $98,000, representing the cost basis for short-term holders, currently constitutes the main resistance level. Key indicators like MVRV-Z show the market is currently at fair value. Target Price $185,500, Maintaining Bullish View: Based on a baseline valuation of $145,000 and a +25% macro factor adjustment, we set our target price at $185,500. This implies approximately 100% upside potential from current levels. Macro Easing Continues, Growth Momentum Weakens Bitcoin is currently trading around $96,000. Since our previous report on October 23, 2025, the price has declined by 12%. Despite the recent pullback, the macro backdrop supporting Bitcoin remains solid.

Fed Path Maintains Dovish Stance

원천: Tiger Research

The Federal Reserve implemented three consecutive rate cuts from September to December 2025, totaling 75 basis points, bringing the current target range to 3.50%–3.75%. The December dot plot projects the rate to fall to 3.4% by the end of 2026. While a single 50-basis-point or larger cut this year is unlikely, with Powell’s term ending in May, the Trump administration may appoint a more dovish successor, ensuring the continuation of monetary easing.

Institutional Outflows vs. Corporate Accumulation

Despite a favorable macro environment, institutional demand has recently been weak. Spot ETFs recorded $4.57 billion in outflows during November and December, the largest since their launch. Annual net inflows were $21.4 billion, down 39% from last year’s $35.2 billion. While January’s asset rebalancing brought some inflows, the sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen. Meanwhile, companies like MicroStrategy (holding 673,783 BTC, ~3.2% of total supply), Metaplanet, and Mara continue to accumulate.

CLARITY Act as a Policy Catalyst Against the backdrop of stagnant institutional demand, regulatory progress is becoming a potential driver. The CLARITY Act, passed by the House, clarifies jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC and allows banks to offer digital asset custody and staking services. Furthermore, it grants the CFTC regulatory authority over the digital commodity spot market, providing a clear legal framework for exchanges and brokers. The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled for review on January 15th. If passed, it could prompt long-hesitant traditional financial institutions to formally enter the market.

Ample Liquidity, Bitcoin Lags Liquidity is another key variable besides regulation. Global M2 supply hit a record high in Q4 2024 and continues to grow. Historically, Bitcoin often leads liquidity cycles, typically rising before M2 peaks and consolidating during the peak phase. Current signs point to further liquidity expansion, suggesting Bitcoin still has upside potential. If equity market valuations appear stretched, capital could rotate into Bitcoin.

Macro Factor Adjusted to +25%, Outlook Remains Solid Overall, the macro direction of rate cuts and liquidity expansion remains unchanged. However, considering slowing institutional inflows, uncertainty around the Fed leadership transition, and rising geopolitical risks, we have lowered our macro adjustment factor from +35% to +25%. Despite this reduction, the weight remains in positive territory. We believe regulatory progress and continued M2 expansion will provide core support for medium-to-long-term price appreciation.

$84,000 Support and $98,000 Resistance On-chain indicators provide supplementary signals to macro analysis. During the correction in November 2025, dip-buying was concentrated around $84,000, forming a clear support zone. Bitcoin has since broken above this range. The $98,000 level corresponds to the average cost basis for short-term holders, constituting a near-term psychological and technical resistance.

On-chain data shows market sentiment shifting from short-term panic to neutral. Key indicators like MVRV-Z (1.25), NUPL (0.39), and aSOPR (1.00) have all moved out of undervalued territory into an equilibrium range. This means the likelihood of a panic-driven explosive rally has decreased, but the market structure remains healthy. Combined with the macro and regulatory backdrop, the statistical basis for medium-to-long-term price appreciation remains strong.

Notably, the current market structure differs significantly from previous cycles. The increased proportion of institutional and long-term capital reduces the probability of panic-driven sell-offs fueled by retail investors. Recent pullbacks have manifested more as gradual rebalancing. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the overall upward structure remains intact.

Target Price Adjusted to $185,500, Bullish Outlook Firm Applying the TVM valuation framework, we derive a neutral baseline valuation of $145,000 for Q1 2026 (slightly below the previous report’s $154,000). Combining a 0% fundamental adjustment and a +25% macro adjustment, we set the revised target price at $185,500.

We have raised the fundamental adjustment factor from -2% to 0%. While network activity shows little change, renewed market focus on the BTCFi ecosystem has effectively offset some bearish signals. Concurrently, due to the aforementioned slowdown in institutional inflows and geopolitical factors, we have lowered the macro adjustment factor from +35% to +25%.

This target price reduction should not be interpreted as a bearish signal. Even after the adjustment, the model still indicates approximately 100% potential upside. The lower baseline price primarily reflects recent volatility, while Bitcoin’s intrinsic value is expected to continue rising over the medium to long term. We view the recent pullback as a healthy rebalancing process, and our medium-to-long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged.

Original Link

이 글은 인터넷에서 퍼왔습니다: Tiger Research: Policy Catalysts and Liquidity Expansion Lock Bitcoin Valuation at $185,500 for Q1 2026

Related: After thirteen ministries and seven associations issued a document to prevent the risks of virtual currencies, where is Many people have asked me in the comments: Attorney Sha, is RWA completely finished in mainland China? As Web3 lawyers, we believe the answer to this question is not a simple “yes” or “no.” The core of RWA is to digitize and tokenize offline assets using blockchain technology, then facilitate secondary market trading and financing. However, under the current regulatory context in mainland China, any tokenization activity attempting to link with public transactions essentially challenges the red line set by the “9.24 Notice” of 2021. The “Risk Warning” from the seven associations is more like adding several more gleaming padlocks to that already tightly closed iron gate. I. Why the Mainland “Cannot Do It”: Risk Isolation Under the Bottom-Line Thinking The risk warning explicitly states: “Currently, my country’s financial regulatory…

# 분석# 비트코인# 교환# 마켓© 版权声명배열 上一篇 24H Hot Tokens and Key News｜Genius Pauses Dynamic Points Distribution; Unexpected Turn in Fed Chair Battle (January 19) 下一篇 As Hackers "More Efficiently" Utilize AI, How Will the "Spear and Shield" Arms Race in Web3 Escalate? 상关文章 주간 파이낸싱 익스프레스 | 14개 프로젝트가 투자를 받았으며 공개된 총 파이낸싱 금액은 대략 다음과 같습니다. 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 39,446 4 Danny Ryan: Wall Street needs decentralization, it needs Ethereum. 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 15,918 암호화폐 시장 매크로 보고서: 미국 정부 셧다운으로 인한 유동성 위축, 암호화폐 시장이 구조적 턴어라운드를 맞이하다 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 17,993 The crypto market is experiencing a major correction. Is the bull market retracing its course or has it already ended? 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 14,123 After two years of waiting, is this the end of the RGB protocol’s launch on the mainnet?Recommended Articles 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 27,861 1 Tether Financial Analysis: Requires an additional $4.5 billion in reserves to maintain stability. 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 19,309 2 Bee.com 세계 최대의 Web3 포털 파트너 코인카프 바이낸스 코인마켓캡 코인게코 코인라이브 갑옷 Bee Network 앱을 다운로드하고 web3 여정을 시작하세요 백지 역할 자주하는 질문 © 2021-2026. 모든 권리 보유. 개인 정보 정책 | 서비스 약관 꿀벌 네트워크 앱 다운로드 Web3 여정을 시작해보세요 세계 최대의 Web3 포털 파트너 CoinCarp Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive Armors 백지 역할 자주하는 질문 © 2021-2026. 모든 권리 보유. 개인 정보 정책 | 서비스 약관 찾다 찾다사이트에온체인사회의소식 熱门推荐 : 에어드롭 헌터 데이터 분석 암호화폐 유명인 함정 탐지기 한국어 English 繁體中文 简体中文 日本語 Tiếng Việt العربية Bahasa Indonesia हिन्दी اردو Русский 한국어

智能索引记录