Long-term speculation: the dominant economic theme for the next century | Bee Network

Long-term speculation: the dominant economic theme for the next century | Bee Network Login 인기 뉴스 밈 런치패드 AI 에이전트 DeSci 탑체인 익스플로러 뉴비의 경우 100x 코인 꿀벌 게임 필수 웹사이트 필수 앱 암호화폐 유명인 드핀 루키 에센셜 함정 탐지기 기본 도구 고급 웹사이트 교환 NFT 도구 안녕, 로그아웃 웹3 유니버스 계략 DApp 꿀벌 하이브 성장하는 플랫폼 기원 후 찾다 영어 코인 충전 로그인 다운로드 웹3 유니 계략 DApp 꿀벌 하이브 기원 후 집•분석•본문 Long-term speculation: the dominant economic theme for the next century분석2개월 전업데이트와이엇 17,012 19 편집자: 루피, 포사이트 뉴스

I am not a stock-picking expert. I believe in a broad-based, low-probability (≤53%) betting strategy, but I am willing to bet everything on one idea: long-term speculation will be the dominant socio-economic theme for the next century.

This explains why people over 40 advise you to focus on your job and earn a higher salary, while people of other ages ignore this advice and pursue any opportunity that can make them rich overnight.

The best product to sell to this group is hope. Once you understand this, you’ll understand why various casinos (including decentralized exchanges, prediction markets, etc.) have sprung up, and why trading mentors, business gurus, paid courses, and of course, Substack’s paid subscription columns have become so popular.

The beginning of the predicament Being imprisoned doesn’t necessarily require a physical cage. Today, a generation is moving forward carrying invisible shackles.

They know that a certain kind of life truly exists: owning a house and a car, living a stable life, and reaping rewards after thirty years of diligent work. They know that some people are living such a life, but they simply cannot imagine how they could get there. It’s not a question of difficulty; they simply cannot plan a feasible path for themselves from their present state to their ideal life.

The traditional path to wealth accumulation has long been closed, not made more difficult, but completely blocked. When the baby boomer generation, which accounts for 20% of the total population, holds nearly 50% of the nation’s wealth, while the millennial generation, which accounts for the same percentage, holds only 10% of the wealth, the inherent flaws of this wealth accumulation mechanism are laid bare.

The ladder to climb has been removed. This wasn’t intentionally done by the baby boomers; rising asset prices naturally benefit asset holders. But regardless of the initial intentions, the end result is the same.

The collapse of traditional contracts In the past, the implicit social contract was simple and clear: go to work on time, work diligently, and be loyal to the company, and you would be rewarded. The company would provide pensions, seniority was crucial, and your house would quietly appreciate in value while you slept. As long as you trusted this system, it would work for you.

Now, this contract has become a dead letter.

Working at a company for 20 years is no longer a plus in the workplace; instead, it’s a professional liability. Salary increases are only 8%, while housing prices have doubled, and debt pressure on young people has soared by about 33%. Patience alone won’t lead to wealth.

I used to think the situation was bad enough, but with the rise of artificial intelligence and its impending economic impact, I realized that the situation would only get worse.

When systems no longer reward patience, people will naturally abandon patience. This is rational adaptation.

Thrust and Pull Currently, two forces are propelling young people forward.

Tension: High-level demands with nowhere to go Modern society has largely addressed the most basic needs in Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. Food prices are low, basic housing is readily available, and while safety, healthcare, and basic employment are not guaranteed, they are sufficient to ensure that most young people do not have to struggle for survival.

Those who faced economic pressures encountered a different kind of predicament. When you’re struggling to make ends meet, you have no time to contemplate the meaning of life. Working hard is the obvious choice, because otherwise you’ll go hungry. You’ll accept a stable job, be content with your lot, after all, this job is your means of survival.

This generation, however, does not have such shackles on survival.

Once basic survival needs are met, humans pursue higher-level needs: belonging, respect, and self-actualization. They crave rich life experiences, meaning in life, and direction and purpose in their lives, rather than the monotony of daily repetition. However, the traditional paths to achieving these higher-level needs—buying a house, career advancement, and financial security—have all been effectively blocked.

Essentially, we are like a group of apes instinctively scratching at the “scar” of self-actualization, bleeding profusely yet helpless, with no idea how to break the deadlock.

Push: The ever-growing anxiety of survival It is a well-known fact that artificial intelligence is eroding white-collar jobs.

This anxiety is not unfounded. The copywriting by ChatGPT is better than most junior marketers; the visual work generated by Midjourney far surpasses the level of entry-level designers; and the code written by Cursor and Claude is good enough to pass review. Almost everyone agrees, except for those with severely lagging skills.

New test data every month shows that artificial intelligence has reached or surpassed human levels in tasks that previously required advanced education and years of training.

White-collar workers, or those eager to improve their financial situation, are watching their job tenure shrink. Three years ago, the idea that “artificial intelligence will replace knowledge workers” was just a thought experiment; now, it’s a prerequisite for corporate planning. Everyone is asking “when will it replace them,” not “whether it will,” and the predicted timelines are constantly being pushed back.

To make matters worse, social media keeps you perpetually dissatisfied with the status quo.

The ultimate goal of algorithms is to show you the lives you could have: vacation destinations you’ve never been to, apartments you can’t afford, and a more refined lifestyle than yours. No matter what stage of life you’re in, there will always be someone living the life you aspire to, and algorithms can always precisely push these lifestyles to you.

The older generation had very limited exposure to the lives of others, mainly consisting of neighbors, colleagues, or a few celebrities in magazines; their frame of reference was extremely narrow. But now, the frame of reference has become infinitely broad. A 25-year-old earning $70,000 a year will constantly see content about peers earning $2 million a year, living in Bali, and working only 4 hours a day. The standard of “good” has been constantly raised.

You can never catch up. No matter what you achieve, social media will always highlight your shortcomings. The gap between your real life and your ideal life is firmly maintained by algorithms, and it can never be bridged.

On one hand, artificial intelligence is constantly shrinking career prospects, and on the other hand, social media makes people perpetually unsatisfied. The pressure to “escape this predicament while there’s still a chance” is growing daily.

Anxiety is everywhere. Every white-collar worker has pondered, “Will artificial intelligence replace my job? When?” The answer for most is pessimistic. Even if they believe they are temporarily safe, that “temporary” period is constantly shrinking.

This generation is caught in a dilemma: they can’t afford traditional life milestones, yet they believe the traditional path might disappear before they even reach their destination. Taking a gamble while they still have money and opportunities becomes the most rational choice.

After all, why work hard for twenty years for a promotion opportunity that may not exist in ten years?

Maslow’s trap When you can survive but can’t take another step forward, something inside you crumbles. You’re not so desperate as to be forced to accept any conditions, yet you’re blocked from truly important opportunities. The energy that was originally used to strive for survival is all transformed into feelings of frustration, confusion, and a desperate search for any possible way out.

Career advancement is not just about a raise; it’s about gaining a sense of purpose, identity, and the satisfaction of knowing your work is valuable. Financial security is not just about money; it’s about having the confidence to take risks, the freedom to travel the world, and the ability to create.

When these paths are blocked and the window for achieving the goal keeps shrinking, the pressure needs an outlet. These “prisoners” urgently need a way out, and they desperately need to find one now.

Casino: The Only Lifeline I first saw this phenomenon in the public blockchain space of 암호화폐currencies, and at the time I just thought it was a bandwagon effect. Later, this trend appeared in the NFT field, then intensified amid the chaos of decentralized exchanges for perpetual contracts, and now it has even spread to the so-called “prediction market supercycle”.

Young people who are unwilling to work hard at the same company are willing to spend months studying cryptocurrency trading; they will devote a lot of energy to studying prediction markets, trying to understand this “manipulated economy” that they firmly believe in; those who ridicule traditional investment as an “insider game” will bet their rent money on a Meme coin.

why is that?

Because the casino is the only place where they feel a sense of control. Only here, within the timeframe they care about, can their decisions open the door to a higher level of life.

Traditional career path? Your boss gets promoted based on seniority, not ability, and your department could be automated and replaced at any time. Stock market investment? Sure, you can earn a 10% return every year and afford a house in 47 years, provided you still have your job.

But what about cryptocurrencies? Prediction markets? Sports betting? Here, your research truly matters, and your conviction pays off. Even if it’s just a “self-proclaimed advantage,” it’s entirely yours, not something given to you by others. In these areas, your judgment directly determines the outcome.

Casinos do have a house advantage, and most people ultimately lose. I think most people understand this. But they still choose to participate because they don’t want to wait for a future that may never come. Those who advise them to “stop gambling” don’t understand the predicament of these “prisoners” and always carry an intellectual superiority complex, as if to say, “You’re playing a negative expected value game.” My view is: these gamblers are fully aware of this.

Those who say “gambling is harmful and you should quit” almost always come from the privileged upper echelons of the financial class. They see a way out and know the path, so they advocate the benefits of “following the established order.”

But for countless people trapped in financial prisons, gambling is their salvation. And the advice of those who try to dissuade them is tantamount to consigning them to a fate of perpetual despair. This is why they rebel, and why your earnest words of advice are simply ignored.

Cold Data: The Reality Behind the Frenzy What are the specific figures?

Predictions suggest that in November 2025 alone, the combined transaction volume of Polymarket and Kalshi will surpass $10 billion, with the total annual transaction volume approaching $40 billion. In 2020, this figure was almost zero, indicating a near-vertical growth curve. Sports betting: Revenue from legal sports betting is projected to surge from $248 million in 2017 to $13.7 billion in 2024. Millennials and Generation Z account for 76% of betting volume, and their activity on online sports betting platforms is up 7% year-over-year. TransUnion’s report 디파이nes these bettors as “speculators”: they are city renters who frequently use cryptocurrency apps and are active on mobile trading platforms. This group of young people, shut out of traditional wealth accumulation paths, are betting everything in the only market that can offer asymmetric returns.

Evidence from economic theory When a person is in a predicament, their risk appetite changes.

Economists call this phenomenon “loss convexity utility”: when you are already at a loss, you are more willing to gamble, even if there is only a tiny chance of winning back your losses, than to accept a certain small loss. This is why people choose to double down after losing money in blackjack, and it is also the root cause of higher lottery sales in low-income communities.

In my view, the influence of social media and the pursuit of higher-level demands has created a misconception among those far from reaching the upper echelons of finance that they are already “losing money.” The baseline for the “break-even point” has been drastically raised. This explains why some people solemnly declare that “an annual income of $150,000 is what it takes to escape poverty.” This generation gambles not just to survive, but to truly live.

When basic needs are met while higher-level needs are blocked, the meaning of money shifts from “ensuring security” to “acquiring tickets”—tickets to experiences, tickets to freedom, and tickets to that unattainable ideal life. A house is no longer just a shelter from the wind and rain, but a source of stability, a foundation for building a community, and a symbol of adulthood; travel is no longer a luxury, but an experience that makes life worthwhile.

For this generation, since there is no hope of achieving these goals through traditional means, the expected value of taking a gamble begins to outweigh the expected value of hard work. If your life baseline is “always standing still,” then even a perceived 5% chance of turning things around is mathematically far more attractive than a 100% chance of being stuck in the same place.

This is not financial ignorance, but a rational choice made under difficult circumstances.

Those who speculate on Meme coins, sports bettors, prediction market regulars, and those who subscribe to paid trading courses all know that the odds of winning are slim. They also know that they have no other choice. When faced with only the options of “certainly doomed” and “high probability of doomed but with a glimmer of hope,” anyone would choose the latter.

Long-term speculation So, what should we bet on?

If my judgment is correct, this generation of young people trapped in economic difficulties will continue to seek a sense of control through highly volatile financial products; therefore, all sectors that meet this demand are worth long-term investment.

Regardless of whether users win or lose, the platform is always the winner. What you’re looking for are platforms that don’t care about user betting outcomes and only profit from transaction fees; these platforms are experiencing a continuous surge in trading activity.

The startup landscape: The industry of “escaping the 9-to-5” is rapidly expanding. Some sell dropshipping tutorials, others teach agency models, and still others peddle “secrets to earning 100,000 yuan a month.” “Starting a business and becoming your own boss” has long become a socially accepted “lottery”—it sounds positive and gives you a sense of control, as if you’re building your own enterprise. Most entrepreneurs ultimately fail, but this doesn’t diminish people’s enthusiasm, just as a low winning rate doesn’t affect lottery sales. Predictions suggest that Polymarket’s valuation has reached $8-10 billion. The overall potential market size for this sector is predicted to be comparable to the entire gaming industry, exceeding one trillion dollars. Even if this prediction is 90% inflated, it is still an astonishingly large market. Cryptocurrency infrastructure: custody, trading, staking, lending—each wave of speculation requires new entry channels. Coinbase, Robinhood’s cryptocurrency business, and various specialized exchanges can all profit from trading volume regardless of market fluctuations. Sports betting operators: DraftKings, FanDuel, and their infrastructure providers. Legal sports betting is gradually expanding across U.S. states, with regulatory barriers forming a strong competitive advantage. Social trading and community platforms: Platforms like Discord, X, and Substack serve this demographic. These platforms attract massive amounts of attention, and users are willing to pay for so-called “exclusive insider information.” We’re not betting on the wins or losses of a single speculator, but on the sustainability of this phenomenon. The underlying economic reality driving young people into high-risk speculation won’t change easily. Platforms that profit from transaction fees will grow in tandem with their user base. Those trapped in financial prisons will keep betting, endlessly.

Considering our known trends in artificial intelligence development, soaring housing prices, unbalanced wealth distribution, and intergenerational economic disparities… are all of these really just temporary phenomena?

Moral Dimension Thinking It needs to be made clear that my argument is descriptive, not instructive.

Seeing a generation pinning their hopes for financial salvation on various “lotteries” is nothing to celebrate. When prediction markets and Meme coins become the only path for people to seek a sense of control, this in itself is a symptom of a malfunctioning society. The house always profits, and most players will ultimately lose everything.

But understanding the reality that’s unfolding will help you find your place. It will allow you to reflect on the current situation and decide whether you want to participate. If you choose to get involved, you must remain clear-headed and only bet on areas where you have an advantage.

Casinos in every era profit from people’s despair. And the despair we feel today is real, verifiable, and escalating. These casinos are peddlers of hope—Polymarket, Coinbase, and DraftKings are among them. They rake in huge profits by continuously extracting transaction fees.

You can stand on moral high ground and criticize all of this, or you can choose to invest in these platforms. Ironically, the latter is precisely one of the few paths that can help you escape the financial prison. Alternatively, you can join the ranks of gamblers—but if you choose this path, you must excel at it.

Because this isn’t a game. We’re talking about your life. If you’re going to gamble your life, you have to do everything you can to maximize your chances of winning.

결론 Let me tell you a true story.

I know someone who’s very smart, works in the tech industry, and earns a substantial income by any historical standard. Last month, he invested $100,000 to farm platform credits on a perpetual contract decentralized exchange. He did this not because he thought it was a worthwhile investment.

Rather, it’s because, in his words, “What else can I do? Save money for twenty years, and then buy an apartment when I’m 55?”

I know very well that when the next decentralized exchange appears, he will gamble again.

The era of long-term speculation has only just begun.

원본 링크

이 글은 인터넷에서 퍼왔습니다: Long-term speculation: the dominant economic theme for the next century

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