温馨提示：本站仅提供公开网络链接索引服务，不存储、不篡改任何第三方内容，所有内容版权归原作者所有
AI智能索引来源：http://www.bee.com/ar/64629.html
点击访问原文链接

Tiger Research: Policy Catalysts and Liquidity Expansion Lock Bitcoin Valuation at $185,500 for Q1 2026 | Bee Network

进入原网站 导航首页
Tiger Research: Policy Catalysts and Liquidity Expansion Lock Bitcoin Valuation at $185,500 for Q1 2026 | Bee Network Login الأخبار الشائعة منصة إطلاق ميمي وكلاء الذكاء الاصطناعي ديسي مستكشف السلسلة الأعلى لنوبي 100x عملات معدنية لعبة النحل المواقع الأساسية يجب أن يكون لديك التطبيق مشاهير التشفير ديبين الناشئين الأساسية كاشف الفخ الأدوات الأساسية المواقع المتقدمة التبادلات أدوات NFT أهلاً، خروج عالم الويب 3 ألعاب تطبيق خلية نحل منصة النمو إعلان يبحث إنجليزي إعادة شحن العملات تسجيل الدخول تحميل ويب 3 يوني ألعاب تطبيق خلية نحل إعلان بيت•تحليل•Tiger Research: Policy Catalysts and Liquidity Expansion Lock Bitcoin Valuation at $185,500 for Q1 2026 Tiger Research: Policy Catalysts and Liquidity Expansion Lock Bitcoin Valuation at $185,500 for Q1 2026تحليلمنذ شهر واحدجديدوايت 8٬932 21 الماخذ الرئيسية Macro Stability, Momentum Slows: The Fed’s rate-cutting cycle and M2 money supply growth remain on track. However, $4.57 billion in ETF outflows have impacted short-term price action. Progress on the CLARITY Act could be a key catalyst for attracting major banks. On-Chain Indicators Shift to Neutral: Buy-side demand around $84,000 has formed a solid bottom support; meanwhile, $98,000, representing the cost basis for short-term holders, currently constitutes the main resistance level. Key indicators like MVRV-Z show the market is currently at fair value. Target Price $185,500, Maintaining Bullish View: Based on a baseline valuation of $145,000 and a +25% macro factor adjustment, we set our target price at $185,500. This implies approximately 100% upside potential from current levels. Macro Easing Continues, Growth Momentum Weakens Bitcoin is currently trading around $96,000. Since our previous report on October 23, 2025, the price has declined by 12%. Despite the recent pullback, the macro backdrop supporting Bitcoin remains solid.

Fed Path Maintains Dovish Stance

مصدر: Tiger Research

The Federal Reserve implemented three consecutive rate cuts from September to December 2025, totaling 75 basis points, bringing the current target range to 3.50%–3.75%. The December dot plot projects the rate to fall to 3.4% by the end of 2026. While a single 50-basis-point or larger cut this year is unlikely, with Powell’s term ending in May, the Trump administration may appoint a more dovish successor, ensuring the continuation of monetary easing.

Institutional Outflows vs. Corporate Accumulation

Despite a favorable macro environment, institutional demand has recently been weak. Spot ETFs recorded $4.57 billion in outflows during November and December, the largest since their launch. Annual net inflows were $21.4 billion, down 39% from last year’s $35.2 billion. While January’s asset rebalancing brought some inflows, the sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen. Meanwhile, companies like MicroStrategy (holding 673,783 BTC, ~3.2% of total supply), Metaplanet, and Mara continue to accumulate.

CLARITY Act as a Policy Catalyst Against the backdrop of stagnant institutional demand, regulatory progress is becoming a potential driver. The CLARITY Act, passed by the House, clarifies jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC and allows banks to offer digital asset custody and staking services. Furthermore, it grants the CFTC regulatory authority over the digital commodity spot market, providing a clear legal framework for exchanges and brokers. The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled for review on January 15th. If passed, it could prompt long-hesitant traditional financial institutions to formally enter the market.

Ample Liquidity, Bitcoin Lags Liquidity is another key variable besides regulation. Global M2 supply hit a record high in Q4 2024 and continues to grow. Historically, Bitcoin often leads liquidity cycles, typically rising before M2 peaks and consolidating during the peak phase. Current signs point to further liquidity expansion, suggesting Bitcoin still has upside potential. If equity market valuations appear stretched, capital could rotate into Bitcoin.

Macro Factor Adjusted to +25%, Outlook Remains Solid Overall, the macro direction of rate cuts and liquidity expansion remains unchanged. However, considering slowing institutional inflows, uncertainty around the Fed leadership transition, and rising geopolitical risks, we have lowered our macro adjustment factor from +35% to +25%. Despite this reduction, the weight remains in positive territory. We believe regulatory progress and continued M2 expansion will provide core support for medium-to-long-term price appreciation.

$84,000 Support and $98,000 Resistance On-chain indicators provide supplementary signals to macro analysis. During the correction in November 2025, dip-buying was concentrated around $84,000, forming a clear support zone. Bitcoin has since broken above this range. The $98,000 level corresponds to the average cost basis for short-term holders, constituting a near-term psychological and technical resistance.

On-chain data shows market sentiment shifting from short-term panic to neutral. Key indicators like MVRV-Z (1.25), NUPL (0.39), and aSOPR (1.00) have all moved out of undervalued territory into an equilibrium range. This means the likelihood of a panic-driven explosive rally has decreased, but the market structure remains healthy. Combined with the macro and regulatory backdrop, the statistical basis for medium-to-long-term price appreciation remains strong.

Notably, the current market structure differs significantly from previous cycles. The increased proportion of institutional and long-term capital reduces the probability of panic-driven sell-offs fueled by retail investors. Recent pullbacks have manifested more as gradual rebalancing. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the overall upward structure remains intact.

Target Price Adjusted to $185,500, Bullish Outlook Firm Applying the TVM valuation framework, we derive a neutral baseline valuation of $145,000 for Q1 2026 (slightly below the previous report’s $154,000). Combining a 0% fundamental adjustment and a +25% macro adjustment, we set the revised target price at $185,500.

We have raised the fundamental adjustment factor from -2% to 0%. While network activity shows little change, renewed market focus on the BTCFi ecosystem has effectively offset some bearish signals. Concurrently, due to the aforementioned slowdown in institutional inflows and geopolitical factors, we have lowered the macro adjustment factor from +35% to +25%.

This target price reduction should not be interpreted as a bearish signal. Even after the adjustment, the model still indicates approximately 100% potential upside. The lower baseline price primarily reflects recent volatility, while Bitcoin’s intrinsic value is expected to continue rising over the medium to long term. We view the recent pullback as a healthy rebalancing process, and our medium-to-long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged.

Original Link

هذا المقال مصدره من الانترنت: Tiger Research: Policy Catalysts and Liquidity Expansion Lock Bitcoin Valuation at $185,500 for Q1 2026

Related: After thirteen ministries and seven associations issued a document to prevent the risks of virtual currencies, where is Many people have asked me in the comments: Attorney Sha, is RWA completely finished in mainland China? As Web3 lawyers, we believe the answer to this question is not a simple “yes” or “no.” The core of RWA is to digitize and tokenize offline assets using blockchain technology, then facilitate secondary market trading and financing. However, under the current regulatory context in mainland China, any tokenization activity attempting to link with public transactions essentially challenges the red line set by the “9.24 Notice” of 2021. The “Risk Warning” from the seven associations is more like adding several more gleaming padlocks to that already tightly closed iron gate. I. Why the Mainland “Cannot Do It”: Risk Isolation Under the Bottom-Line Thinking The risk warning explicitly states: “Currently, my country’s financial regulatory…

تحليل ## بيتكوينتبادل ## السوق© 版权声明المصفوفة 上一篇 24H Hot Tokens and Key News｜Genius Pauses Dynamic Points Distribution; Unexpected Turn in Fed Chair Battle (January 19) 下一篇 As Hackers "More Efficiently" Utilize AI, How Will the "Spear and Shield" Arms Race in Web3 Escalate? 相关文章 AI Agent Weekly Report | Cookie Snaps Now Available on Rayls; Sector Drops Over 12% Weekly (August 25-31)Recommended Art 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 22٬175 1 Who will own the most Bitcoin in 2025? 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 23٬151 قد تصدر بولي ماركت عملة معدنية، وتكشف المستندات المقدمة عن أدلة 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 20٬502 Blockchain and Cryptocurrency 2025: Opening a new chapter in the future 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 61٬461 1 2024 Crypto Industry Review and Outlook: Stablecoin Payments Rise, BTC L2 Has Huge Potential 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 40٬193 The largest BTC theft in history has been exposed: 5 years later, the amount involved reached $14.5 billionRecommended A 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 29٬094 6 أحدث المقالات UniSat Releases Phase Updates and Upgrades, Continuously Building the Bitcoin Ecosystem منذ 1 يومًا 1٬515 Jack Dorsey’s Company: 4,000 White-Collar Workers Are Being Replaced by AI منذ 1 يومًا 1٬417 Latest Stablecoin Report: Real Distribution and Flow Are Far More Important Than Supply منذ 1 يومًا 1٬330 Sui DeFi’s “Three-Engine” Revolution: How New Capabilities, New Assets, and New Programs Are Building the Future of On-Chain Finance? منذ 1 يومًا 1٬285 On-chain Investigator ZachXBT Confirms: Axiom Employees Exploited Internal Privileges for Insider Trading منذ 1 يومًا 1٬149 المواقع الشعبيةTempoLighterGAIBطائرة شراعيةبلانكرايلزبوكر BCPokerفوي Bee.com أكبر بوابة Web3 في العالم الشركاء كوين كارب بينانس CoinMarketCap كوين جيكو كوين لايف الدروع قم بتنزيل تطبيق Bee Network وابدأ رحلة web3 ورق ابيض الأدوار التعليمات © 2021-2026. جميع الحقوق محفوظة. سياسة الخصوصية | شروط الخدمة تحميل تطبيق Bee Network وابدأ رحلة web3 أكبر بوابة Web3 في العالم الشركاء CoinCarp Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive Armors ورق ابيض الأدوار التعليمات © 2021-2026. جميع الحقوق محفوظة. سياسة الخصوصية | شروط الخدمة يبحث يبحثفي الموقععلى تشيناجتماعيأخبار العنوان: صيادو الإنزال الجوي تحليل البيانات مشاهير التشفير كاشف الفخ العربية English 繁體中文 简体中文 日本語 Tiếng Việt 한국어 Bahasa Indonesia हिन्दी اردو Русский العربية

智能索引记录