Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Could a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Pivot? | Bee Network
Over the past six months, Bitcoin has failed to strengthen in sync with gold and other risk assets. Since June 2025, sustained selling by early holders was once considered the primary suppressing factor. However, starting in October, as gold accelerated its upward move and Bitcoin entered a correction, it became clear that a single factor could no longer explain the current divergence.
The flash crash on October 10, 2025, served as a significant watershed. This event led to a notable widening of cross-asset relative pricing and inter-exchange price spreads, squeezing the risk budgets of market makers and market-neutral capital, thereby weakening short-term liquidity. It is noteworthy that there is little indication of concentrated losses among major trading institutions. Instead, realized losses are occurring more diffusely among a broader range of market participants. Data shows that traders on the Hyperliquid platform contributed to over 50% of the realized losses, indicating that this round of shock was primarily borne by speculative retail investors rather than being institution-led.
Capital and Narrative Shifts: Weakening Dollar is a Supporting Variable, but Risk Appetite is Still CoolingOn a macro level, the reflation narrative persists, and the U.S. dollar remains within a relatively weak trading range. Historically, Bitcoin has often found more robust medium-term support during periods of sustained dollar weakness. Recently, Trump has neither sent a clear signal of support for a weaker dollar nor made strong statements against it. The market tends to interpret this as an increased tolerance for a weaker dollar, suggesting that the reflation trade may still find support in the short term.
However, from a capital flow perspective, there are signs of a marginal shift towards caution in risk appetite. The one-year rolling growth rates of the stablecoin supplies for both USDT and USDC have noticeably slowed after peaking around October 2025, with the decline in USDC being more pronounced. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s overall search interest has remained at low levels since its peak in 2021, reflecting more of a cooling in retail attention rather than a resurgence of panic. Although discussions related to quantum computing have subsided, they continue to somewhat suppress Bitcoin’s “safe-haven asset” narrative, making it difficult for its safety premium to recover.
Overall, while the U.S. dollar’s 14-year uptrend has been broken—a change historically favorable for Bitcoin establishing medium-to-long-term support—the current price structure remains weak, with rallies often being sold into. The asset continues to trade within a consolidation range under a bear market framework. Our view on Bitcoin has shifted marginally towards a more constructive stance compared to before. However, before adopting a more definitive bullish stance, we still need to wait for further improvement and confirmation from both technical and capital flow signals.
Some of the views above are from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full Matrix on Target report.
Disclaimer: Markets are risky; invest with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can carry significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.
This article is sourced from the internet: Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Could a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Pivot?
# Analysis# bitcoin# defi# Exchange# Market© Copyright NoticeThe copyright of the article belongs to the author, please do not reprint without permission. Pre Tiger Research: Driven by a Liquidity Vacuum Leading to Sharp Sell-offs, Why Has Bitcoin Failed to Rebound? Next Is Binance Still the World's Largest Exchange? Related articles Musk and Anthropic are going to space to find electricity LWyatt 7,391 YOUSIMs market value tripled overnight, AI Meme version of role-playing is here 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 53,714 1 The four-year cycle ends, and the new order of encryption has arrived 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 34,069 1 Bitcoin Suisse 2025 Outlook: Altcoin Market Value to Increase Fivefold; Wealth Effect May Drive NFT Boom 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 51,701 2 NexVault: Opening a new realm of enterprise-level self-custodial asset management platform 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 44,887 Why is the crypto market continuing its downward spiral despite the Federal Reserve’s continuous interest rate cuts? 6086cf14eb90bc67ca4fc62b 1,711,967 4601 No comments You must be logged in to leave a comment! Login immediately No comments... Bee.com The world's largest Web3 portal Partners CoinCarp Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive Armors Download Bee Network APP and start the web3 journey White Paper Roles FAQ © 2021—2026. All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy | Terms of Services Download Bee Network APP and start the web3 journey The world's largest Web3 portal Partners CoinCarp Binance CoinMarketCap CoinGecko Coinlive Armors White Paper Roles FAQ © 2021—2026. All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy | Terms of Services Search SearchInSiteOnChainSocialNews Hot to you: Airdrop Hunters Data Analysis Crypto Celebrities Trap Detector English 繁體中文 简体中文 日本語 Tiếng Việt العربية 한국어 Bahasa Indonesia हिन्दी اردو Русский Englishbitcoin,defi,Exchange,Market
- Price Structure Under Pressure: Selling Pressure Not from Institutions, but Dispersed Speculative Losses Over the past six months, Bitcoin has failed to strengthen in sync with gold and other risk ...